Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
651 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scatted thunderstorms are forecast through
  9PM/10PM this evening. A few thunderstorms could become strong
  to severe with the main threats being heavy rain, lightning,
  gusty winds, and a few instances of hail up to 1 inch.

- Quiet and warm weather is expected Sunday through at least
  Monday night. The next best chance for showers and
  thunderstorms arrives late Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

19Z satellite shows partly cloudy skies across central and
southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. A muggy afternoon and
evening is expected with temperatures continuing to warm into
the 80s and dew points rising into the upper 60s and 70s. The
muggy conditions will also allow the atmosphere to continue to
destabilize with SBCAPE values peaking in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg
range this afternoon. This instability combined with a weak
passing overhead disturbance will support some isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon and
evening. However, expect thunderstorms to be more pulse-like
due to rather weak 0-6km shear values around 20 kts at best,
mid-level lapse rates around 6.4 C/km, DCAPE values of 800 to
900 J/kg, and overall weak ascent. Should a thunderstorm be able
to last long enough to become strong to severe, the threat
looks to be gusty winds and instances of hail up to 1 inch.
Periods of heavy rainfall are also possible with PWATs right
around 1.5-1.6 inches. Because of the over pulse-like nature of
thunderstorms, it will be difficult to pin point exactly where
they will develop. That being said, the greatest coverage,
timing, and chances (up to 60%) of thunderstorms looks to be
across central Minnesota through 6PM. This is due to being in
closer proximity to better upper-level support. There is
generally a 30% to 40% chance of a shower or thunderstorm across
Minnesota and western Wisconsin through 9PM/10PM this evening.
Chances quickly decrease after sunset but an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for southern portions through
2AM.

Upper-level flow is forecast to be more northerly on Sunday as a
ridge begins to build into the Upper Mississippi River Valley.
This means that height rises aloft will suppress most convection
chances to close out the holiday weekend. That being said, a
stray shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours cannot
be ruled out for far southeastern Minnesota. Chances of this
occurring are only around 15% at best. There is a reasonable
amount of consensus that the positively aligned ridge axis will
move over the area on Monday. So Monday's forecast calls for a
warm day with highs in the mid 80s and mostly sunny skies. By
Monday evening, shower and thunderstorm chances return as a weak
shortwave traverses the area. Because the wave passes over
later in the day/closer to sunset, overall coverage is forecast
to be on the lower end. If the shortwave traverses the area
earlier in the afternoon and around peak heating on Monday, more
areas could see showers and thunderstorms.

A more potent shortwave and an associated front looks to
approach the forecast area late Tuesday into Wednesday. This is
currently the next best chance (60% to 70%) for showers and
thunderstorms across the area. For Thursday and Friday, a
largely zonal pattern looks to set up with embedded shortwaves
passing through. There is a reasonable amount of uncertainty on
timing and strength of the shortwaves which will influence the
shower and thunderstorm chances to end the work week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 629 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Showers and thunderstorms near KSTC are forecast to continue
pushing to the south and east through 03Z/04Z Sunday. Confidence
in storms holding together by the time they reach KMSP and KRNH
is around 60 percent so went with a TEMPO group. Confidence in
direct impacts at all other terminals is around 30 percent so
PROB30 groups have been maintained. MVFR flight conditions
and wind gusts around 25 kts are possible in any thunderstorms.
There is low cloud/fog potential Sunday morning at any terminal
that has seen/sees rain as long as clouds clear out overnight.
Confidence is highest that low clouds/fog will develop at KMSP
and KSTC. Confidence is around 20 percent at all other terminals
so went with a FEW010 or SCT010 group at this time. Otherwise,
dry and VFR flight conditions by 15Z Sunday.

KMSP...There is an area of thunderstorms to the northwest of KMSP
as of 00Z and it is forecast to reach the terminal between 01Z
and 03Z Sunday. MVFR flight conditions and gusty winds around
25kts could accompany these showers and thunderstorms with its
southeastward movement. There is 60 percent confidence that
fog/low clouds will development at the terminal between 10Z and
15Z Sunday. If clouds do not clear out, the fog/low cloud
chances will be much lower. Otherwise, expect winds to be 10kts
or less.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...MVFR 10Z to 15Z, otherwise VFR. Winds E to NE 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Winds SE 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc TS overnight. Winds SW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...WFO MPX/TOP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
052045-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
342 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms remain possible through at
least sunset. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of
frequent lightning, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain. There
could be a few instances of small hail as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
600 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0557 PM     Flash Flood      1 N St. Cloud           45.57N 94.17W
07/04/2026                   Stearns            MN   Law Enforcement

            Dispatch reports several disabled vehicles.
            Public works is being sent to assist with
            road closures.

&&

PV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
602 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ059-042345-
Wright MN-
602 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WRIGHT COUNTY UNTIL 645
PM CDT...

At 602 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Maple Lake, or 5 miles northwest of Buffalo, moving southeast at 10
mph.

HAZARD...Landspouts and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Maple Lake, Rassat, Buffalo and St. Michael.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4525 9405 4531 9389 4520 9370 4512 9403
TIME...MOT...LOC 2302Z 333DEG 6KT 4523 9395

LANDSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
630 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ054-050030-
Lac Qui Parle MN-
630 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAC QUI PARLE
COUNTY UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 630 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles northwest of Bellingham, or 34 miles southwest of Morris,
moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Big Stone National Wildlife Refuge, Bellingham and Louisburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4518 9610 4498 9626 4512 9645 4527 9645
      4527 9642 4526 9640 4526 9637 4525 9629
      4522 9627 4522 9622 4519 9617 4520 9614
TIME...MOT...LOC 2330Z 303DEG 14KT 4524 9641

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 TO 55 MPH

CTG

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 PM     Flash Flood      1 ENE St. Cloud         45.56N 94.16W
07/04/2026                   Stearns            MN   Storm Chaser

            Picture on X of vans disabled at an
            underpass with water up to the windows,
            covering break lights on van.

&&

PV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ059-060-068-050045-
Carver MN-Hennepin MN-Wright MN-
655 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HENNEPIN...
EAST CENTRAL CARVER AND SOUTHEASTERN WRIGHT COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM
CDT...

At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms over Corcoran, or 16 miles east of Buffalo, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  St. Michael, Champlin, Maple Grove, Plymouth, Brooklyn Park,
  Brooklyn Center, Minnetonka, Golden Valley, Hopkins, St. Louis
  Park, Chanhassen and Minneapolis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4515 9378 4525 9352 4524 9352 4525 9351
      4523 9349 4523 9347 4522 9346 4522 9345
      4504 9328 4504 9327 4497 9321 4483 9371
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 333DEG 20KT 4512 9354

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
705 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

MNZ054>056-050100-
Lac Qui Parle MN-Swift MN-Chippewa MN-
705 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAC QUI PARLE...
NORTHWESTERN CHIPPEWA AND SOUTHWESTERN SWIFT COUNTIES UNTIL 8 PM
CDT...

At 705 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Appleton, or 21 miles northwest of Montevideo, moving southeast at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Appleton Airport, Appleton, Milan and Hagen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4516 9610 4524 9604 4518 9576 4498 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0005Z 309DEG 11KT 4517 9602

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

CTG