Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
135 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase this
  afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across central
  MN and western WI Wednesday.

- Comfortable temperatures stick around through the end of the
  week. A pattern change will bring hot and humid conditions
  with daily storm chances heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Early afternoon regional radar captures a batch of showers and
thunderstorms progressing east across central MN. This activity
developed on the nose of the LLJ within a region of warm
advection ahead of a surface low positioned near the intersection
of northeast ND/northwest MN/southern Manitoba. Aloft, an
upper-low near the International Border is supported by a
channel of 40-50kt flow across the Dakotas. A few of the cells
within the initial round of storms have exhibited broad rotation
and some stronger cores as they remain on the line of the of
marginal CAPE/shear axis, which will remain possible in the near
term. HREF's 12z CAM paintball ensemble captures the ongoing
showers/storms pretty well and shows this activity moving ESE
and expanding southward with time. RAP mesoanalysis shows that
the environment is becoming more favorable for a few strong to
severe storms in the wake of the initial batch of showers/ahead
of a cold front across the eastern Dakotas/and northwestern MN.
This region is characterized by pooling of increasing surface
moisture (low 60s dew points) supportive of CAPEs on the order
of 1000-1500 J/kg. The influence of the upper-low to the
northwest and effective shear on the order of 30-40kts with at
some low-level curvature in the hodographs will be supportive of
an isolated tornado threat with any convection that develops
within this region this afternoon. SPC had added a narrow Slight
Risk (driven by 5% tornado probs) east of the Red River Valley
south into portions of central MN to cover this potential. See
MD #1274 for additional details on this threat. Outside of this
zone, the going Day 1 Marginal Risk remains in place along and
west of a line from Mille Lacs to Martin counties. Any storms
that develop within this region will be capable of an isolated
instance of large hail (1"+) and damaging wind (60+ mph). Latest
QPF expectations include 0.5-0.75" of rainfall potential with
today's convection, which is supported by 1.2-1.3" PWATs. All of
this to say, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase over the entire forecast area later today, but the best
chance for strong to severe storms remains across the western
half of the forecast area.

The core of the upper-low is progged to move east across northern MN
tomorrow, which will place our forecast area in a post-frontal
northwesterly cyclonic flow regime. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return along and north of I-94 tomorrow afternoon and evening, with
the highest PoPs located in western WI. Speaking of which, we won't
rule out a stronger storm or two across our western WI counties
tomorrow, but potential increases the farther into central WI
tomorrow afternoon. Mainly dry and tranquil weather returns for
Thursday, Friday, and most of Saturday. Temperatures are forecast
to warm a few degrees each day, with highs back in the low to
mid 80s by Saturday afternoon. A change to the pattern will
begin to take shape later Saturday, as the eastward translation
of a trough over the western CONUS sends a warm front northward
into the Upper Midwest. This will more than likely support a
round of showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Saturday into Sunday morning.

Good ensemble support exists for a jetstreak to round the base of
the trough Sunday and promote the maturation and occlusion of an
upper-low over south central Canada by Monday afternoon. The Upper
Midwest will be positioned east of the developing feature, within a
region of southwesterly flow and very warm mid-level temperatures
captured by an EML on forecast soundings. The position of the
aforementioned warm front will be something to watch, but current
expectations support it lifting north of the forecast area
allowing for highs to climb into the upper 80s/lower 90s Sunday
& Monday. As referenced by the previous discussion, the very
warm mid-level temperatures will act as a cap on the atmosphere
which casts doubt in convective evolution Sunday into Monday.
However, the approach of the upper forcing and weakening of said
cap bears watching for deeper, potentially severe convection
Monday afternoon and evening as is highlighted by various
machine learning tools.

Looking farther ahead, ensembles take a much more Summer look by
depicting a 590s dm ridge building over the central CONUS for the
middle to end of next week. At the very least, this will support a
more prolonged period of heat and humidity heading into July.
Dangerous heat and active stormy weather, supported by the first
appearance of the classic ring-of-fire pattern, are both possible
over the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Showers and thunderstorms currently over west-central MN are
expected to expand in coverage as they shift eastward through
the rest of this afternoon-evening. Generally conditions will
drop to MVFR as the main swath of rain with embedded
thunderstorms cross any given terminal, though there is a
greater chance of IFR conditions during and after the
precipitation in far eastern MN into western WI this evening
into the early morning hours. Low stratus will linger through
daybreak then partial clearing will develop from late Wednesday
morning on through much of the day Wednesday. There is a small
chance of some isolated-scattered -SHRA in eastern MN into
western WI Wednesday afternoon. However, chances are too low and
coverage too sparse to include at this point. Winds may be
breezy/gusty with the passage of any storms, but otherwise
generally S with speeds around 10kts, potentially gusts to
around 20kts. Winds then drop to near 5 kts overnight while
veering to SW then pick up to near 10kts Wednesday from the W to
WNW.

KMSP...VFR to start then increasing chances of SHRA/TSRA late
this afternoon, mainly in the 21z-00z timeframe. Conditions
likely to drop to MVFR with the TSRA, possibly some brief IFR
periods should heavy downpours occur. Low stratus is then
expected to develop late this evening through the overnight
hours behind the precip, including through the Wednesday morning
push, then partial clearing for much of the daytime hours
tomorrow. A few light rain showers are possible mid-to-late
Wednesday afternoon but chances are too low to include at this
point.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts gusting to 25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ052-053-060>063-069-070-076>078-083>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-241700-
Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-
Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening, with primary
hazards of lightning and occasionally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances increase again Saturday night and Monday.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Heat and humidity will increase beginning Sunday and will
continue into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>068-073>075-082-241700-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few storms
may approach severe limits with large hail and damaging winds. A
few weak and brief spin-ups are possible with any of the more
organized storms that develop as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances increase again Saturday night and Monday.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Heat and humidity will increase beginning Sunday and will
continent next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ060-061-068-232045-
Anoka MN-Hennepin MN-Carver MN-
302 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ANOKA...
HENNEPIN AND CARVER COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Corcoran to near Norwood Young
America, or extending from 16 miles east of Buffalo to 22 miles east
of Hutchinson, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Maple Grove, Plymouth, Chaska, Champlin, Minnetonka, Eden Prairie,
  Brooklyn Park, St. Louis Park, Edina, Brooklyn Center, Bloomington,
  Minneapolis, Fridley and Richfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4497 9375 4515 9367 4517 9364 4521 9364
      4522 9357 4512 9323 4491 9320 4489 9318
      4481 9325 4479 9336 4481 9344 4479 9358
      4476 9362 4475 9361 4472 9363 4471 9362
      4465 9373 4476 9401 4491 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 295DEG 26KT 4511 9354 4490 9364 4483 9393

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MPG