Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon to evening.
Strong wind gusts are the primary concern, especially in western
Minnesota.

- Quiet Tuesday, followed by our best chance for showers and storms
this week throughout the day Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain near normal in the mid to upper 70s for
  highs through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Satellite has continued to show cumulus bubbling underneath a
scattered cirrus deck that has persisted throughout the day, the
main consequence of which is the surface thermal profile ahead of
potential showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. There
are a few storms ongoing in portions of South Dakota that have
produced some wind gusts around 60mph (base severe thunderstorm
level), and these storms will be moving into western Minnesota
within a couple hours. Most high resolution guidance maintains the
presence of showers and storms through Minnesota before they weaken
after heating ends this evening, with winds being the primary
concern even from decaying cells later in the event. Timing wise, we
will start to see some showers in western Minnesota within the hour,
with the best environment along the upper level shortwave lagging
behind the leading edge by an hour or so. The Twin Cities impacts
look to start closer to 7pm, ending rapidly as we start to cool
cutting off whatever instability we have remaining. Even as
instability dwindles to nothing, we could see a few strong gusts
from collapsing storms as late as 9pm as showers persist into
western WI into the overnight hours. Generally, we expect some gusty
winds to cause some isolated impacts, but widespread severe weather
is not expected with most of the activity more likely to be covered
via Special Weather Statement than Severe Thunderstorm Warning given
the environment. As of 230pm, our neighboring offices to the west in
Aberdeen (ABR), and Sioux Falls (FSD) have one severe thunderstorm
warning for some reported 60mph gusts and a Special Weather
Statement for potential 40-60mph gusts respectively.

Showers look to exit western WI a few hours after sunrise with
Tuesday showing a window of clearing between the departing/weakening
showers to the east and another round of showers and storms from the
west by the evening to overnight. High resolution guidance that
reaches through the first half of Wednesday including the 12/18z
HRRR/RRFS have begun to resolve an MCS type feature Wednesday
morning as a nocturnal LLJ couples with upper level forcing via left
exit region of an upper level jet streak. With surface temperatures
in the low to mid 50s during the morning, instability will generally
be the limiting factor with the wind threat being most apparent if
we see some heavier showers and evaporative cooling momentum
enhanced gusts. An early-Spring strength surface low will spun up
and track along the aforementioned left exit region of the upper
level jet streak coupling with the mid level shortwave to produce a
strong surface low, and based on the track would result in some area
wide showers and perhaps a few weak storms throughout the day with
showers departing early Thursday as the surface low pushes over the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings continue to show some instability
building during the day, however aside from a brief window in the
morning for western WI and perhaps far southern MN depending on the
low track, we are not located in the idea position for severe
weather with the better focus being to our south in portions of
Missouri, southern Iowa, and Illinois.

A weak Canadian high moves into the region behind the departing
system to end the week but we maintain our northwesterly flow aloft
in an almost clipper-like winter pattern, bringing potential for
more shortwave energy and isolated showers and storms into the early
weekend. Ensemble guidance across the board is much less
enthusiastic about precipitation chances after Wednesday's system
until at least early next week, with fairly low confidence in
individual systems beyond the weekend such that the forecast is
likely to change as we get closer. Temperature wise, the GEFS
produce a more amplified pattern towards the end of the period
resulting in some gradually warming temperatures, with the EPS
flatter pattern keeping us in the mid to upper 70s for longer and
even into the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered showers and storms are moving through the region,
producing light to moderate rainfall and isolated lightning. The
main concern with this rain this evening will be strong and
gusty winds being mixed down to the surface. We have seen
several gusts around 40 to 50 mph this afternoon already, and we
expect that to continue through around sunset. Even without the
rain, winds have continued to be gusty. The rain will exit from
west to east overnight. Winds will remain breezy tomorrow with
gusts around 20kts during the afternoon.

KMSP...Changed the prob30 to a tempo as there is higher
confidence in showers impacting KMSP this evening. Main impact
will be the gusty winds associated with the rain, though there
may be brief reductions in visibility as the heaviest rain moves
through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-15kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms may produce some gusty winds.
Isolated severe wind gusts possible, primarily in western
Minnesota this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of more widespread showers and storms are possible
on Wednesday, including a round during the morning and a separate
round later in the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
640 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     8 N Milaca              45.88N 93.66W
06/15/2026  M67 MPH          Mille Lacs         MN   Dept of Highways

            U.S. 169 MNDOT sensor measured a 67 mph wind
            gust near MP 200.

&&

BED

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1102 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ064-073-074-160445-
Yellow Medicine MN-Brown MN-Redwood MN-
1102 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WESTERN BROWN...
REDWOOD AND SOUTHEASTERN YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES UNTIL 1145 PM
CDT...

At 1102 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an area of strong
thunderstorms across southeastern Brown and northwestern Redwood
counties. These storms are moving southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Wood Lake, Echo, Belview, Vesta, Delhi, Lucan, Seaforth, Redwood
  Falls, North Redwood, Wabasso, Redwood Falls Airport, Wanda,
  Clements, Morgan, Sanborn and Springfield.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4460 9560 4469 9548 4449 9486 4419 9486
      4418 9510 4420 9510 4420 9512 4447 9559
      4454 9559 4454 9560
TIME...MOT...LOC 0401Z 308DEG 38KT 4461 9542 4447 9557

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

ETA