Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
201 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered thunderstorms develop this evening across southwest to
  central MN, spreading into southeast MN western WI overnight into
  Monday AM.

- Summer-like warm through Thursday. Tuesday is forecast to be
  the warmest day with highs in the low 90s possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A pleasant afternoon is underway across much of the Upper Midwest.
Temperatures have warmed into the 70s and 80s with mostly sunny
skies & relatively light wind. One cannot draw up a much nicer late
May day. Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end and
today's nice weather is not different. There will be scattered
thunderstorms that develop this evening across portions of west and
southwest Minnesota. A few of these storms could become strong to
severe capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. SPC
expanded their level 1 (Marginal) and added a level 2 (Slight) risk
areas across SW/WC MN for this evening's severe threat. Forecast
soundings reveal 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, sufficient wind shear, and
modest forcing that will arrive prior to sunset. Low level lapse
rates will be steep given with an inverted V sounding present. This
will cause some updrafts to strengthen and produce large hail and
possibly gusty winds. Low level moisture is modest - dew points
struggle to get into the upper 50s but better mid-level moisture
will be enough to get over the hump. The most favorable corridor
appears to be along the MN river valley south to the I-90 corridor.
A few storms will hold on to clip E MN and W WI overnight, but
severe potential wanes by midnight.

For Memorial Day, dry conditions are expected behind the lingering
overnight convection. Skies should clear up nicely by mid-late
morning. Temperatures will climb further as southerly winds ramp up.
High temperatures push into the upper 80s with dew points in the
lower 60s. Latest guidance supports a broad area of 2000+ J/kg
MLCAPE overhead by Monday afternoon. If we take a few forecast
soundings across MN and W WI, they all reveal a mostly capped
environment under rising heights. The missing ingredient is any
meaningful forcing aloft - something key to overcoming that low
level capping. If a storm could form, hail would be the primary
concern.

For Tuesday/Wednesday, models show surface dewpoints climbing
into the 60s, with PWATs increasing to around 150% of normal.
Temperatures will warm further, into the upper 80s to lower 90s,
it looks like diurnal destabilization may be enough to break
through capping in the afternoon hours. This should lead to
isolated pulse thunderstorms capable of producing isolated
damaging wind gusts. Forecast soundings support a limited threat
of severe weather. Looking ahead into next weekend, we'll be
under the heart of an omega block. Surface wise, we'll be west
of high pressure over the Great Lakes that drops down from
Hudson Bay. This will result in a prolonged period of cooler,
dry easterly winds. This will help push highs back down to more
normal values, into the 70s, but also dry our the surface low
level moisture. Needless to say, with an airmass this dry moving
in, it will be difficult to see any precipitation. Long range
guidance would hint that a warmer than normal & drier than
normal pattern sets up for the first half of Summer.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR for all TAF sites to start with clouds very few and quite
far between at initialization time. SKC conditions likely to
persist through the daylight hours, potentially aside from some
high clouds filtering in from W or SW as a warm front moves into
the region. Mid-to-high ceilings are likely from late evening
through much of the overnight hours, along with scattered -SHRA
for mainly far southern MN into western WI during the overnight
hours. A few select hours of TSRA potential is there for most
TAF sites, mainly after midnight but prior to sunrise.
Visibilities may well drop into MVFR range should any decent
rainfall move across any given site but ceilings are expected to
remain within VFR range. Skies will then gradually clear out
from around sunrise onward on Memorial Day. Winds will remain
generally southerly throughout with speeds in the 6-10kt range,
potentially a bit higher and gusty during the day tomorrow.

KMSP...Went a little later in the timing of the overnight TAF
compared to the 12z TAF, now looking for the window of -SHRA to
be in the 05z-10z range, with TSRA roughly 07z-10z. CAMs are
still relatively all over the place with the location/timing of
overnight convection so this timing may shift a bit yet in
upcoming TAF issuances. Otherwise, the idea of VFR ceilings with
possibly MVFR visibility during convection still holds for MSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
TUE...VFR. Wind SSW 5-10kts.
WED...VFR with P.M. MVFR/-TSRA possible. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...BPH
AVIATION...JPC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
521 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
252000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
521 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected this evening and overnight
across southern Minnesota. A few storms may be severe,
particularly over southwest Minnesota through this evening. The
main hazard is large hail, and damaging wind gusts cannot be ruled
out.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday and
Wednesday afternoon. The threat for severe weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will likely be needed through this
evening over southern Minnesota.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
457 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

MNZ065-242245-
Renville MN-
457 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTY UNTIL
545 PM CDT...

At 457 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Renville, or 12 miles north of Redwood Falls,
moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bechyn, Olivia, Morton and Bird Island.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4465 9523 4478 9521 4478 9487 4452 9492
      4453 9494 4459 9511 4460 9512 4460 9513
      4461 9515 4462 9518
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 278DEG 16KT 4471 9514

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BED

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