Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
202 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The passage of a strong cold front today will bring scattered
  thunderstorms. As of 1pm, the severe weather risk is mainly
  across western Wisconsin.

- Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards across
  western Wisconsin, and the risk for tornadoes increases as you
  head east.

- Much colder air is expected for the weekend with possibly a
  few snow showers but with no snow accumulation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Today:
Early afternoon satellite and radar imagery
showed storms across central and western Minnesota. These storms
were behind a strong cold front that as of 1pm were generally
along the I-35 corridor. At Jackson Minnesota, the temperature
dropped 22 degrees in 41 minutes earlier today!

Meanwhile, a few storms were developing ahead of the cold
front, and these are the ones that could produce large hail,
damaging wind, and tornadoes later this afternoon. For this
afternoon, severe thunderstorm watches and tornado watches have
been issued for a few counties in far eastern MN, and much of
Wisconsin.

There is strong forcing for severe weather, meaning the CAP will
not hold. However, we expect storms to quickly develop which
could lead to destructive interference. But the overall
environment does support strong to severe storms through
roughly 3 to 5 pm in our area, and then we expect the convection
to be east of Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau Claire counties. As for
the rain threat, these storms will be moving quickly, so most
locations will have less than an inch.

Tonight through Thursday:

Once the storms exit the region, northwest winds will continue
to bring in cold air overnight, with lows falling below freezing
across the region. The cold air will continue though Saturday,
with highs only in the mid 40s, and breezy northwest winds
continuing, keeping wind chills near freezing throughout the
day.

On Sunday, high pressure will build in and temperatures will be
a bit warmer, with highs in the upper 40s. The real warmth
returns on Monday, with highs back in the 60s. This is in
response to upper level ridging building across the central
CONUS, and warm air advection overspreading across the region.

This ridge will also keep the region dry through Wednesday. On
Thursday troughing from the west will bring increased moisture
across the region, and high chances (50 to 70) for showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1257 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Main concern in the short term is showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon, but they should diminish from west to east during the
late afternoon and into the evening as a cold front continue to
move through the region. This will bring northwest winds and
MVFR ceilings. Ceilings will start raise, and expect mostly VFR
conditions on Saturday.

KMSP...
Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon with
northwest winds and MVFR ceilings. Then ceilings will lift and
expect VFR conditions after that.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SE 10kts becoming S 10G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts becoming NW.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...JRB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
180900-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A strong cold front will push across the area today. A line of
strong to severe thunderstorms will develop along it across
eastern Minnesota late this morning into early this afternoon,
then track quickly across western Wisconsin. Large hail, damaging
winds, and a tornado or two are possible, especially in Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon, mainly in
eastern Minnesota into western WI.

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