Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1243 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Big warmup arrives tomorrow through the remainder of the week.

- A few strong to severe storms are possible tomorrow afternoon
  for western Wisconsin. A better chance for severe storms for
  much of south central Minnesota/western Wisconsin is expected
  Monday and possibly again on Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

It's a cool and damp Saturday as scattered showers continue to
slide eastward across Minnesota and Wisconsin. These showers and
maybe a rumble of thunder will continue into the evening and
overnight hours, especially for portions of western Wisconsin. A
southwesterly LLJ will kick in this evening, sending a plume of
Gulf moisture northward. Continued cloud cover and very strong
WAA will allow temperatures to gradually increase overnight. A
majority of the forecast area will likely be sitting with both
temperatures and dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s by
morning. We'll have to see how quickly clouds clear out Sunday,
but it seems likely that highs will be some 30 degrees warmer
than today in the upper 70s and low 80s. Winds will turn from
the south to the west by the afternoon, which will work to lower
dew points by 5 to 10 degrees for western Minnesota. There's a
chance that portions of our far southwest see min RH values fall
below 30% during the afternoon and evening with wind gusts
approaching 30 MPH, but for now, it appears that the risk for
elevated fire weather conditions will remain back across the
Dakotas. To the east where Tds remain in the 60s, there is a
question of whether any afternoon convection will be able to
develop. A lot rides on the timing of a weak shortwave and how
long morning showers and clouds stick around. Still, CAMs have
CAPE values AOA 1500 J/kg and ample shear, so a stronger storm
or two is a possibility, especially for western Wisconsin. SPC
has a Marginal Risk in the SWODY2 that covers this threat.

A more favorable severe weather set up is still in the cards for
Monday. A warm front will lift northward during the afternoon with
PWATs increasing to around 1", which is around 200% of normal. Mid
level lapse rates are impressive, but strong capping may limit storm
development initially. There is a fair amount of spread in the
guidance in how far northward the warm front will push, with the
AIFS keeping southern Minnesota in the low to mid 60s and the RRFS
taking upper 70s as far north as St. Cloud. All of this to say,
there is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for
Monday. Tuesday looks like a similar scenario, but likely even
further south and east of our CWA. But again, some strong to severe
storms can't be ruled out entirely at this point. The remainder of
the week remains mild with temperatures in the 70s. We'll see
continued chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the work
week. Looking ahead, a stronger system may be in the works for the
weekend and I can't guarantee that all precip associated with
this will fall as liquid...

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Showers continue over western WI overnight. The arrival of the
low level jet will lead to the inclusion of WS in all TAF sites
tonight. There will likely be another round of storms
developing around 10z just east of MKT that pushes into WI in
around daybreak this morning. I've tweaked the PROB30 -TSRA
sites, but additional tweaks may be necessary overnight.
Fog will continue to spread across portions of central MN
overnight with most sites in IFR through sunrise. For Sunday, a
dryslot will be moving east across MN that will quickly clear
skies and shift winds to the SW by Sunday afternoon. This will
lead to a quick improvement from IFR to VFR late morning into
early afternoon time frame. I've tweaked the clearing timing
across our MN sites, but the timing of our dryline boundary
remains uncertain. W WI sites will stay in the lower MVFR clouds
through mid- afternoon before scattering out. Wind gusts will
peak in the 30 to 35 knot range this afternoon, but gusts should
fall off after sunset this evening.

KMSP... Latest trends suggest the secondary round of TS will
stay to our southeast this morning. For this afternoon, we'll
have a favorable pattern for a southwest cross-wind. Also,
we'll have very deep mixing (possibly pushing 10k feet), so
these will be very gusty cross winds, with sporadic wind gusts
to 40 kts not out of the question given momentum transfer via
forecast soundings.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...AM VFR. PM -RA likely, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind E 5-10 kts.
TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SHRA likely late. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind lgt and vrb.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...BPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
953 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MNZ053-060>063-068>070-076>078-084-085-092-093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
130300-
Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Waseca-Steele-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-
Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
953 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through the night.
Some small hail and brief downpours will be possible with the
strongest storms, primarily in western Wisconsin.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Monday and Tuesday. A few
storms may be strong to severe, potentially producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Some storms may also produce
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

MNZ041>045-047>052-130300-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-
953 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Areas of dense fog, with visibilities of a quarter of a mile or
less is expected to develop across central Minnesota tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Monday and Tuesday. A few
storms may be strong to severe, potentially producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Some storms may also produce
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

MNZ054>059-064>067-073>075-082-083-091-130300-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Martin-
953 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Temperatures in the 80s, gusty southwest winds, and low afternoon
relative humidity values will lead to evelvated fire weather
conditions in southwest Minnesota Sunday afternoon.

Scattered thunderstorms can be expected Monday and Tuesday. A few
storms may be strong to severe, potentially producing large hail,
damaging wind gusts or a tornado. Some storms may also produce
heavy rain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
217 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MNZ092-120800-
Faribault MN-
217 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT FARIBAULT COUNTY UNTIL
3 AM CDT...

At 217 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 6 miles west of Elmore to 11 miles south
of Elmore, or extending from 15 miles southeast of Fairmont to 26
miles southeast of Fairmont, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Half inch size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Blue Earth, Wells, Elmore, Bricelyn, Easton, Frost, Delavan and
  Brush Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4357 9425 4385 9405 4385 9396 4370 9365
      4369 9365 4350 9378 4350 9425
TIME...MOT...LOC 0717Z 219DEG 31KT 4353 9421 4344 9418 4334 9413

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Borghoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MNZ084-092-093-120845-
Waseca MN-Faribault MN-Freeborn MN-
300 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN WASECA...
EASTERN FARIBAULT AND FREEBORN COUNTIES UNTIL 345 AM CDT...

At 300 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from over Minnesota Lake to 13 miles south of
Mansfield, or extending from 24 miles northwest of Albert Lea to 24
miles southwest of Albert Lea, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

The strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Minnesota Lake and Bricelyn around 300 AM CDT. Wells around 305 AM
  CDT. Mansfield around 310 AM CDT. Alden, Emmons, Conger and
  Freeborn around 320 AM CDT. Twin Lakes and Hartland around 325 AM
  CDT.

Other locations impacted by this strong thunderstorm include Kiester,
Brush Creek, Walters, Baroda and Matawan.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4350 9381 4356 9388 4384 9387 4385 9385
      4385 9377 4388 9377 4400 9348 4391 9341
      4385 9341 4385 9336 4380 9332 4350 9314
TIME...MOT...LOC 0759Z 240DEG 31KT 4381 9380 4359 9380 4352 9370 4340
9370

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Borghoff