Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Twin Cities, MN

296 
WWUS53 KMPX 152356
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNC095-160006-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-260616T0030Z/
Mille Lacs MN-
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR SOUTHEASTERN MILLE
LACS COUNTY...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9345 4585 9351 4587 9314 4573 9314
      4573 9285 4572 9287 4570 9288 4564 9289
      4561 9288 4559 9289 4559 9288 4558 9288
      4557 9287 4557 9285 4556 9282 4554 9282
      4555 9341 4567 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 270DEG 27KT 4577 9341

$$


MNC025-059-065-160030-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-260616T0030Z/
Chisago MN-Isanti MN-Kanabec MN-
656 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO, NORTHERN ISANTI AND SOUTHERN KANABEC
COUNTIES...

At 656 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Grasston, or 16
miles north of Cambridge, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Weather station reported.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Ogilvie, Lewis Lake, Mora, Brunswick, Cambridge Airport, Cambridge,
  Stanchfield, Grandy, Grasston, Harris, Rush City, and Wild River
  State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm has produced damaging winds.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9345 4585 9351 4587 9314 4573 9314
      4573 9285 4572 9287 4570 9288 4564 9289
      4561 9288 4559 9289 4559 9288 4558 9288
      4557 9287 4557 9285 4556 9282 4554 9282
      4555 9341 4567 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2333Z 270DEG 27KT 4577 9341

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

ETA

708 
WWUS53 KMPX 160011
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
711 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNC025-059-065-160021-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-260616T0030Z/
Chisago MN-Isanti MN-Kanabec MN-
711 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHWESTERN CHISAGO,
NORTHERN ISANTI AND SOUTHERN KANABEC COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. However, gusty winds
around 40 mph are still possible with this area of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

LAT...LON 4573 9345 4585 9351 4587 9314 4573 9314
      4573 9285 4572 9287 4570 9288 4564 9289
      4561 9288 4559 9289 4559 9288 4558 9288
      4557 9287 4557 9285 4556 9282 4554 9282
      4555 9341 4567 9342
TIME...MOT...LOC 2356Z 270DEG 27KT 4577 9317

$$

ETA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered showers and storms possible this afternoon to evening.
Strong wind gusts are the primary concern, especially in western
Minnesota.

- Quiet Tuesday, followed by our best chance for showers and storms
this week throughout the day Wednesday.

- Temperatures remain near normal in the mid to upper 70s for
  highs through the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Satellite has continued to show cumulus bubbling underneath a
scattered cirrus deck that has persisted throughout the day, the
main consequence of which is the surface thermal profile ahead of
potential showers and storms later this afternoon and evening. There
are a few storms ongoing in portions of South Dakota that have
produced some wind gusts around 60mph (base severe thunderstorm
level), and these storms will be moving into western Minnesota
within a couple hours. Most high resolution guidance maintains the
presence of showers and storms through Minnesota before they weaken
after heating ends this evening, with winds being the primary
concern even from decaying cells later in the event. Timing wise, we
will start to see some showers in western Minnesota within the hour,
with the best environment along the upper level shortwave lagging
behind the leading edge by an hour or so. The Twin Cities impacts
look to start closer to 7pm, ending rapidly as we start to cool
cutting off whatever instability we have remaining. Even as
instability dwindles to nothing, we could see a few strong gusts
from collapsing storms as late as 9pm as showers persist into
western WI into the overnight hours. Generally, we expect some gusty
winds to cause some isolated impacts, but widespread severe weather
is not expected with most of the activity more likely to be covered
via Special Weather Statement than Severe Thunderstorm Warning given
the environment. As of 230pm, our neighboring offices to the west in
Aberdeen (ABR), and Sioux Falls (FSD) have one severe thunderstorm
warning for some reported 60mph gusts and a Special Weather
Statement for potential 40-60mph gusts respectively.

Showers look to exit western WI a few hours after sunrise with
Tuesday showing a window of clearing between the departing/weakening
showers to the east and another round of showers and storms from the
west by the evening to overnight. High resolution guidance that
reaches through the first half of Wednesday including the 12/18z
HRRR/RRFS have begun to resolve an MCS type feature Wednesday
morning as a nocturnal LLJ couples with upper level forcing via left
exit region of an upper level jet streak. With surface temperatures
in the low to mid 50s during the morning, instability will generally
be the limiting factor with the wind threat being most apparent if
we see some heavier showers and evaporative cooling momentum
enhanced gusts. An early-Spring strength surface low will spun up
and track along the aforementioned left exit region of the upper
level jet streak coupling with the mid level shortwave to produce a
strong surface low, and based on the track would result in some area
wide showers and perhaps a few weak storms throughout the day with
showers departing early Thursday as the surface low pushes over the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings continue to show some instability
building during the day, however aside from a brief window in the
morning for western WI and perhaps far southern MN depending on the
low track, we are not located in the idea position for severe
weather with the better focus being to our south in portions of
Missouri, southern Iowa, and Illinois.

A weak Canadian high moves into the region behind the departing
system to end the week but we maintain our northwesterly flow aloft
in an almost clipper-like winter pattern, bringing potential for
more shortwave energy and isolated showers and storms into the early
weekend. Ensemble guidance across the board is much less
enthusiastic about precipitation chances after Wednesday's system
until at least early next week, with fairly low confidence in
individual systems beyond the weekend such that the forecast is
likely to change as we get closer. Temperature wise, the GEFS
produce a more amplified pattern towards the end of the period
resulting in some gradually warming temperatures, with the EPS
flatter pattern keeping us in the mid to upper 70s for longer and
even into the end of the month.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Scattered showers and storms are moving through the region,
producing light to moderate rainfall and isolated lightning. The
main concern with this rain this evening will be strong and
gusty winds being mixed down to the surface. We have seen
several gusts around 40 to 50 mph this afternoon already, and we
expect that to continue through around sunset. Even without the
rain, winds have continued to be gusty. The rain will exit from
west to east overnight. Winds will remain breezy tomorrow with
gusts around 20kts during the afternoon.

KMSP...Changed the prob30 to a tempo as there is higher
confidence in showers impacting KMSP this evening. Main impact
will be the gusty winds associated with the rain, though there
may be brief reductions in visibility as the heaviest rain moves
through.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
WED...MVFR/SHRA likely, chc -TSRA/IFR. Wind SE 5-15kts.
THU...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind NW 5-10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 5-15kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...BED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
161945-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
241 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Isolated to scattered storms may produce some gusty winds.
Isolated severe wind gusts possible, primarily in western
Minnesota this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Another round of more widespread showers and storms are possible
on Wednesday, including a round during the morning and a separate
round later in the day.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
402 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ041-042-047>049-055>057-152200-
Douglas MN-Kandiyohi MN-Todd MN-Stevens MN-Pope MN-Chippewa MN-
Stearns MN-Swift MN-
402 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...RAIN SHOWERS WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT CHIPPEWA...
KANDIYOHI...STEVENS...DOUGLAS...POPE...SWIFT...TODD AND WESTERN
STEARNS COUNTIES UNTIL 5 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, An area of rain showers with occasional lighting has
been producing brief wind gusts up to 50 to 55 mph across far-eastern
South Dakota & western Minnesota. Occasional wind gusts up to 50 to
55 mph are expected to continue as the rain moves eastwards across
west-central Minnesota. These showers are moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Trained spotters & weather stations reported.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Willmar, Alexandria, Montevideo, Morris, Sauk Centre, Melrose, Long
  Prairie, Benson, Staples, Glenwood, Appleton, Clara City, Starbuck,
  New London, Spicer, Atwater, Browerville, Hancock, Raymond and
  Kerkhoven.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4541 9616 4576 9624 4576 9576 4611 9577
      4611 9515 4637 9516 4637 9473 4635 9465
      4577 9464 4541 9476 4490 9476 4489 9566
      4495 9579 4515 9604 4518 9610 4541 9612
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 281DEG 23KT 4576 9620 4611 9572 4638 9510 4576
9508 4488 9520 4488 9546 4489 9569 4515 9605

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

ETA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
500 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-160200-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Alexandria, Long Prairie, Little Falls,
Princeton, Mora, Morris, Glenwood, St Cloud, Sauk Rapids,
Elk River, Cambridge, Center City, Madison, Benson, Montevideo,
Willmar, Litchfield, Monticello, Minneapolis, Blaine, St Paul,
Stillwater, Granite Falls, Olivia, Hutchinson, Gaylord,
Chanhassen, Chaska, Victoria, Shakopee, Hastings, Redwood Falls,
New Ulm, St Peter, Le Sueur, Faribault, Red Wing, St James,
Mankato, Waseca, Owatonna, Fairmont, Blue Earth, and Albert Lea
500 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

...GUSTY WINDS FROM RAIN SHOWERS THIS EVENING...

Rain showers moving out of the Dakotas will continue to spread
eastwards across Minnesota this evening. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph
are expected with any of the rain showers but brief gusts around
50 mph are possible at times, especially across west-central
Minnesota. The rain showers will continue into tonight but the
potential for gusty winds of 40-50 mph is expected to decrease by
sunset.