Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Twin Cities, MN

357 
WWUS53 KMPX 020137
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
837 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MNC013-079-161-020200-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-260702T0200Z/
Blue Earth MN-Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-
837 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM CDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN BLUE EARTH, SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHWESTERN WASECA
COUNTIES...

At 837 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Eagle Lake,
Madison Lake, Mankato, Greenland, and North Mankato, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Damage to vehicles is expected.

Locations impacted include...
  Mankato, North Mankato, Le Center, Eagle Lake, Waterville, Madison
  Lake, St. Clair, Elysian, Cleveland, Skyline, Lake Jefferson,
  Greenland, Smiths Mill, Mankato Airport and St Henry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. These storms are capable of producing large hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 9397 4444 9375 4426 9353 4405 9390
      4413 9409 4416 9406 4415 9405 4416 9404
      4417 9402 4417 9400 4418 9400 4418 9402
      4419 9401 4420 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0125Z 226DEG 25KT 4414 9401 4418 9392 4415 9379 4408
9391 4407 9403 4410 9414

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...<50 MPH

$$

Borghoff

858 
WWUS53 KMPX 020144
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
844 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MNC013-079-161-020154-
/O.CAN.KMPX.SV.W.0136.000000T0000Z-260702T0200Z/
Blue Earth MN-Le Sueur MN-Waseca MN-
844 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR NORTHEASTERN BLUE
EARTH, SOUTHERN LE SUEUR AND NORTHWESTERN WASECA COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 100 AM CDT
Thursday for a portion of south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4424 9397 4444 9375 4426 9353 4405 9390
      4413 9409 4416 9406 4415 9405 4416 9404
      4417 9402 4417 9400 4418 9400 4418 9402
      4419 9401 4420 9401
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 226DEG 25KT 4420 9393 4424 9383 4421 9371 4414
9382 4412 9394 4416 9405

$$

Borghoff

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
650 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- TODAY, Severe thunderstorms possible this afternoon and
  evening, mainly across southern Minnesota and west central
  Wisconsin. Hail, wind, and a few tornadoes are possible, along
  with heavy rain and localized flooding.

- HOLIDAY WEEKEND, additional thunderstorm chances continue
  throughout the Holiday Weekend. There is a risk for severe
  weather and heavy rain with these storms, but timing and
  location are uncertain.

- Warm & muggy conditions continue but dangerous heat indices
  are unlikely.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...The main concern is for storms with severe
weather and heavy rain. Early afternoon satellite imagery showed a
few high clouds along the IA/WI border, and radar showed some
precipitation returns along with a few lightning strikes. This area
had received morning convection, and that is important since
additional storms are expected there later today.

From the severe weather aspect, LCLs are very low, and the surface
winds have an easterly direction. This is leading to Effective
Helicity values near 200 m2/s2, both of which support a tornado
potential later this afternoon and evening along I-90 and into
west central Wisconsin. As we go forward in time, the surface
winds are expected to veer with time and become more southwest.
This would reduce the tornadic threat, which can be visualized
in the Effective SRH values decreasing to around 100 m2/s2 by
00Z this evening. So the surface winds will be a key in
determining the tornado threat later today.

Aside from tornadoes, there will be ample CAPE and deep layer shear
to support organized convection. However the mid level lapse rates
are only around 7 C/km, so not anticipating extremely large hail, or
a significant cold pool to produce high-end damaging winds. Instead
expect a few severe storms with typical large hail and damaging
winds.

The moist mid-level lapse rates are indicative of the high
precipitable water, with values near 2 inches in place. Any storms
that form will be capable of produce heavy rain and flooding. Areas
that are most at risk are along I-90, where they already had storms
this morning, and could see training storms later today as well.
These storms will eventually exit the region late this evening,
setting up a mostly dry day for Thursday.

THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...Additional round of storms expected
through the weekend and into next week. The pattern remains fairly
steady, meaning any storms that develop could produce severe weather
and heavy rain.

Mostly dry conditions are expected on Thursday, but late Thursday
night into Friday morning is a time frame to watch for
thunderstorms. We expect a complex of storms to develop in the
Dakotas Thursday night, and either move into Minnesota and Wisconsin
on Friday morning, or dive south into Iowa. This storm will have
sufficient CAPE and shear to produce severe weather. The main threat
is damaging wind, with a secondary threat tornadoes and hail.

Looking ahead, there is no strong signal for storms the rest of the
weekend, but the guidance suggests that storms will be possible. As
mentioned earlier, severe weather and heavy rain will accompany
these thunderstorm complexes. As we transition to next week,
the heavy rain and flooding threat increases. The EC and GFS
Ensembles both have multiple members with 4 to 5 inches of rain
between now and next week. This indicates that multiple rounds
of storms will lead to higher rainfall totals somewhere across
the forecast area. And each round will saturate soils, resulting
in higher runoff potential with the next round. So the flooding
threat bears watching over the next few days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Main concern is the potential for thunderstorms this evening
across our southeastern most sites (MKT/EAU). MKT and EAU should
see a few hours of TSRA before drying out overnight. MSP and
RNH will be a close call but TS should remain just SE of the
terminals. We will be quick to AMD if storms develop further
north than current observations support. Lower clouds scour out
overnight with scattered to broken high ceilings expected to
remain in place overnight. Scattered high clouds are likely on
Thursday with little to no impact. Chances for additional rounds
of for SHRA/TSRA increase for Thursday night, but that is
beyond the timeframe of this TAF set. Winds turn light/variable
overnight through the first half of Thursday before turning more
southerly to southeasterly.

KMSP... Primary concern is the uncertainty with how far
northwest thunderstorms make it this evening. Current
observations would support them remaining to the southeast of
the terminal but recent radar scans suggest a few updrafts may
try to strengthen to the west of MSP terminal. If these continue
to strengthen than we'd need to AMD in a TEMPO group for an
hour or two of TSRA.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...SHRA likely, chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds S 5-10kts becoming E.
SAT...SHRA likely, chc MVFR/TSRA. Winds SE 5-10kts becoming NE.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...JRB
AVIATION...BPH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
206 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
021000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
206 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon and
evening, primarily across southern and eastern Minnesota into
western Wisconsin. The main hazards are damaging straight line
winds and large hail, although a tornado or two cannot be ruled
out. In addition, there is a heavy rain and flooding risk with
any storms that move slowly over any given location.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Additional storm chances continue daily, particularly Thursday
night and Friday night, through the weekend along with warm and
muggy conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and
evening.