Severe Thunderstorm Warning 126, NWS Twin Cities, MN

846 
WWUS53 KMPX 281159
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
659 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

MNC013-043-091-165-281209-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0126.000000T0000Z-260628T1200Z/
Blue Earth MN-Faribault MN-Martin MN-Watonwan MN-
659 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 AM CDT FOR SOUTHERN
BLUE EARTH, FARIBAULT, MARTIN AND WATONWAN COUNTIES...

The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 900 AM CDT for a
portion of south central Minnesota.

&&

LAT...LON 4385 9485 4385 9486 4411 9486 4411 9396
      4398 9388 4375 9376 4350 9377 4350 9485
TIME...MOT...LOC 1059Z 257DEG 49KT 4404 9496 4385 9478 4368 9469 4345
9476

$$

LPR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
233 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunday morning, a line of thunderstorms will move west to east
  across Minnesota. The line of storms may produce large hail
  and strong to severe winds as it progresses east.

- Long duration period of heat and humidity begins Sunday,
  persisting through the week. The Extreme Heat Watch has been
  upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning for Monday. Heat impacts to
  be felt all week with little overnight relief and therefore a
  building heat stress.

- Chances for thunderstorms through next week. Storms will be
  capable of severe weather & torrential rain, if they are able
  to form.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Overall, not a lot of changes in the forecast from previous forecast
packages. A long duration period of hot and humid conditions
begins today, lasting into the holiday weekend. The Extreme
Heat Watch has been upgraded to Extreme Heat Warning for Monday.
Chances of thunderstorms will also exist through the period. As
of now, confidence in exact timing and some of the finer
details remains low, but anywhere storms develop, they could
become strong to severe.

.TODAY...

Current satellite/radar imagery as of 1:00AM shows a line of showers
and thunderstorms extending north to south across the Dakotas. This
line of storms is right along the HWY-281 corridor in ND/SD, moving
eastward. HREF and REFS guidance, along with their associated
high resolution models shows this line of storms progressing
eastward through the remainder of the overnight and Sunday
morning hours. Said guidance, along with radar time of arrival
tool has this line of storms moving into western MN by 3-4 AM.
Given the convective parameters at hand and current trends
associated with this line, the potential for strong to severe
wind gusts and some large hail are at play as this line moves
into western MN and progresses eastward across the state this
morning. The question remains, how strong to severe will this
line of storms be as it moves eastward across MN? Given the
elevated nature of this progressing line of storms, large hail
will be a threat, along with damaging winds if storms are able
to develop an associated cold pool. The Storm Prediction Center
continued with slight and marginal risk for severe weather
across the forecast area through the morning hours.

During the day, a warm front will lift northward across region with
hot and humid air building in across the area in it's wake.
Substantial warming at 700mb, depicted by forecast model soundings
will promote capping at that layer. This cap will inhibit any
thunderstorm activity during the afternoon/evening hours, with the
thunderstorm risk shifting north across norther half of MN and WI.

.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...

On Monday, the big concern and impactful weather hazard will be the
well advertised heat. The previously issued Extreme Heat Watch has
been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning for Monday. Conditions
Monday morning will start off hot and humid, with the Extreme Heat
Warning in effect at 9AM. Ample sunshine through the day will
increase temperatures in the afternoon hours with highs topping out
in the middle 90s. This coupled with dew point temperatures in the
70s will lead to heat indices at or above 105 degrees. This level of
heat and humidity will be dangerous to anyone without reliable AC,
those working and doing strenuous activities outside, young
children, older adults, and people with chronic health conditions.

With ample heat, humidity, and instability in place on Monday, the
threat for evening thunderstorms will be possible. Again, like on
Sunday, any convection will be battling the cap that is forecasted
to be in place on again. That said, some of the high resolution
models show another line of thunderstorms, or MCS like complex of
storms developing over western MN during the evening hours
before progressing eastward. That said, the SPC has issued a
Day 2 slight risk for severe thunderstorms across most of MN on
Monday, due to the potential for robust convection within a hot,
moist, and unstable environment.

This also brings us back to why the Extreme Heat Warning wasn't
extended into Tuesday, the threat for Monday evening and overnight
thunderstorms. This and the associated cloud debris could inhibit
sufficient warning during the day on Tuesday. That said, the
decision for heat headlines on Tuesday will not be made during this
shift due to the low confidence and potential inhibiting factors at
hand. This will allow future shifts/forecasts packages to
assess fresh data in the 24-48 hours. However, conditions are
still going to be hot and humid and as of now we will continue
to message the threat for dangerous heat on Tuesday as well even
if not headlines area issued.

.REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...

The hot and humid conditions will continue through the work week
with daily high temps around 90 degrees. What makes this long
duration period of heat so impactful, is the lack of recovery in
overnight temperatures. Overnight temperatures through the week will
be in the upper 60s and low 70s across the area. This will further
build the heat stress that could potentially last into the holiday
weekend.

The threat for daily afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
will continue through the week. Anywhere convection occurs, it will
be rather robust with the continued hot and humid conditions in
place. However, given that each day will likely feature some sort of
capping, confidence is low with regard to timing and location.
Continued monitoring our web page and social medias for updated
information in the week to come.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Biggest change to this TAF period was turning PROB30s into
TEMPOs for -TSRA across central and southern MN (RWF, STC, and
MKT). CAMs are coming into better agreement for a bowing line of
thunderstorms traveling west to east across MN after sunrise
Sunday morning. These storms may contain large hail and damaging
winds, though confidence isn't currently high enough to include
these hazards in the TAF. Expect reduced visibilities down to at
least MVFR during storms. Cigs will fall to MVFR/IFR across MN
tonight into Sunday afternoon before improving to MVFR/VFR.
Meanwhile, WI terminals are more likely to periodically fall to
MVFR. Have included a PROB30 Sunday afternoon at AXN and STC for
possible -SHRA. Southeasterly winds will maximize as a LLJ
passes west to east through the region. Peak sustained values
will reach 15-20 knots while gusts reach 25-30 knots.

KMSP...Not confident enough to upgrade PROB30 to TEMPO for -TSRA
Sunday morning. CAMs now favor a bowing line of storms traveling
west to east across southern MN during Sunday morning. This line
weakens and begins to dive southeast as it travels east. Thus,
the impact for MSP is uncertain. MVFR cigs Sunday morning
through the afternoon before improving to VFR. Southeasterly
winds will gust to near 30 knots during the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA. Wind S 15-20G30 kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G25 kts.
WED...VFR. Chc TSRA. Wind S 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday
     night for Anoka-Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Carver-Chisago-
     Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti-Kanabec-
     Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-Martin-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs-
     Nicollet-Ramsey-Redwood-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-
     Sibley-Stearns-Steele-Waseca-Washington-Watonwan-Wright.
WI...Extreme Heat Warning from 9 AM Monday to midnight CDT Monday
     night for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-
     Polk-St. Croix.

&&

DISCUSSION...LPR
AVIATION...CTG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
449 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
291000-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
449 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected today, but a line of
thunderstorms over eastern SD and western MN will continue to
progress eastward through the morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Dangerous heat and humidity develops on Monday and is expected to
persist through much of next week. Monday is expected to be the
hottest day.

Thunderstorm chances continue for most of next week. Severe
thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.