Severe Thunderstorm Warning 125, NWS Twin Cities, MN

458 
WWUS53 KMPX 240116
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
816 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNC129-143-240145-
/O.CON.KMPX.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-260624T0145Z/
Renville MN-Sibley MN-
816 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SIBLEY COUNTIES...

At 816 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Fairfax, or 20
miles east of Redwood Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
  Franklin, Fairfax and Gibbon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Seek shelter inside a well-built structure and stay away from
windows. This storm is capable of producing damaging winds and large
hail.

&&

LAT...LON 4463 9463 4463 9444 4446 9450 4446 9475
      4451 9487 4452 9488 4452 9489 4463 9484
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 287DEG 27KT 4459 9490

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

NDC

128 
WWUS53 KMPX 240138
SVSMPX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
838 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNC129-143-240148-
/O.EXP.KMPX.SV.W.0125.000000T0000Z-260624T0145Z/
Renville MN-Sibley MN-
838 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 845 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN RENVILLE AND SOUTHWESTERN SIBLEY COUNTIES...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire. However, small hail
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4446 9450 4446 9475 4451 9487 4452 9488
      4452 9489 4463 9484 4463 9450 4463 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 0116Z 287DEG 27KT 4454 9471

$$

NDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase this
  afternoon and evening. A few storms may be strong to severe.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are possible across central
  MN and western WI Wednesday.

- Comfortable temperatures stick around through the end of the
  week. A pattern change will bring hot and humid conditions
  with daily storm chances heading into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 135 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Early afternoon regional radar captures a batch of showers and
thunderstorms progressing east across central MN. This activity
developed on the nose of the LLJ within a region of warm
advection ahead of a surface low positioned near the intersection
of northeast ND/northwest MN/southern Manitoba. Aloft, an
upper-low near the International Border is supported by a
channel of 40-50kt flow across the Dakotas. A few of the cells
within the initial round of storms have exhibited broad rotation
and some stronger cores as they remain on the line of the of
marginal CAPE/shear axis, which will remain possible in the near
term. HREF's 12z CAM paintball ensemble captures the ongoing
showers/storms pretty well and shows this activity moving ESE
and expanding southward with time. RAP mesoanalysis shows that
the environment is becoming more favorable for a few strong to
severe storms in the wake of the initial batch of showers/ahead
of a cold front across the eastern Dakotas/and northwestern MN.
This region is characterized by pooling of increasing surface
moisture (low 60s dew points) supportive of CAPEs on the order
of 1000-1500 J/kg. The influence of the upper-low to the
northwest and effective shear on the order of 30-40kts with at
some low-level curvature in the hodographs will be supportive of
an isolated tornado threat with any convection that develops
within this region this afternoon. SPC had added a narrow Slight
Risk (driven by 5% tornado probs) east of the Red River Valley
south into portions of central MN to cover this potential. See
MD #1274 for additional details on this threat. Outside of this
zone, the going Day 1 Marginal Risk remains in place along and
west of a line from Mille Lacs to Martin counties. Any storms
that develop within this region will be capable of an isolated
instance of large hail (1"+) and damaging wind (60+ mph). Latest
QPF expectations include 0.5-0.75" of rainfall potential with
today's convection, which is supported by 1.2-1.3" PWATs. All of
this to say, coverage of showers and thunderstorms will
increase over the entire forecast area later today, but the best
chance for strong to severe storms remains across the western
half of the forecast area.

The core of the upper-low is progged to move east across northern MN
tomorrow, which will place our forecast area in a post-frontal
northwesterly cyclonic flow regime. Shower and thunderstorm chances
return along and north of I-94 tomorrow afternoon and evening, with
the highest PoPs located in western WI. Speaking of which, we won't
rule out a stronger storm or two across our western WI counties
tomorrow, but potential increases the farther into central WI
tomorrow afternoon. Mainly dry and tranquil weather returns for
Thursday, Friday, and most of Saturday. Temperatures are forecast
to warm a few degrees each day, with highs back in the low to
mid 80s by Saturday afternoon. A change to the pattern will
begin to take shape later Saturday, as the eastward translation
of a trough over the western CONUS sends a warm front northward
into the Upper Midwest. This will more than likely support a
round of showers and thunderstorms across the region late
Saturday into Sunday morning.

Good ensemble support exists for a jetstreak to round the base of
the trough Sunday and promote the maturation and occlusion of an
upper-low over south central Canada by Monday afternoon. The Upper
Midwest will be positioned east of the developing feature, within a
region of southwesterly flow and very warm mid-level temperatures
captured by an EML on forecast soundings. The position of the
aforementioned warm front will be something to watch, but current
expectations support it lifting north of the forecast area
allowing for highs to climb into the upper 80s/lower 90s Sunday
& Monday. As referenced by the previous discussion, the very
warm mid-level temperatures will act as a cap on the atmosphere
which casts doubt in convective evolution Sunday into Monday.
However, the approach of the upper forcing and weakening of said
cap bears watching for deeper, potentially severe convection
Monday afternoon and evening as is highlighted by various
machine learning tools.

Looking farther ahead, ensembles take a much more Summer look by
depicting a 590s dm ridge building over the central CONUS for the
middle to end of next week. At the very least, this will support a
more prolonged period of heat and humidity heading into July.
Dangerous heat and active stormy weather, supported by the first
appearance of the classic ring-of-fire pattern, are both possible
over the coming weeks. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Storms continue this evening across southern Minnesota with rain
showers across western Wisconsin. Both of these will slowly move
east through the evening. Behind the storms moisture will stick
around with some areas of low stratus sticking around for those
ahead of a cold front (which mainly excludes wester MN).
Conditions will improve in the morning with VFR returning. Winds
light and variable tonight shifting to the west tomorrow.

KMSP...Thunderstorms should generally be past the airfield as
this point. Thunderstorms will continue near the airfield, but
it should stay to the south of the terminal proper. Low
MVFR/high IFR stratus expected overnight with the moisture ahead
of the frontal passage.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming NE.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts gusting to 25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ052-053-060>063-069-070-076>078-083>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-
023>028-241700-
Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-Scott-Dakota-
Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-
Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...
northwest Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening, with primary
hazards of lightning and occasionally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances increase again Saturday night and Monday.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Heat and humidity will increase beginning Sunday and will
continue into next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MNZ041>045-047>051-054>059-064>068-073>075-082-241700-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-
Wright-Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Watonwan-
1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are likely this afternoon and evening. A few storms
may approach severe limits with large hail and damaging winds. A
few weak and brief spin-ups are possible with any of the more
organized storms that develop as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorm chances increase again Saturday night and Monday.
Some severe thunderstorms are possible.

Heat and humidity will increase beginning Sunday and will
continent next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

BED

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
638 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     Hail             2 E Cosmos              44.93N 94.66W
06/23/2026  M2.00 Inch       Meeker             MN   Public

            Report relayed via social media with a
            picture.

&&

JMS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
702 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ066-067-240030-
McLeod MN-Sibley MN-
702 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MCLEOD AND WESTERN
SIBLEY COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM CDT...

At 702 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of Stewart, or 18 miles southwest of Hutchinson,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Stewart, Fernando, Gibbon, Winthrop and New Auburn.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4467 9463 4472 9460 4472 9450 4473 9450
      4467 9416 4446 9433 4446 9437 4458 9463
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 300DEG 26KT 4466 9454

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

NDC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ085-240045-
Steele MN-
724 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN STEELE COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

At 724 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Owatonna, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
  Owatonna Airport, Owatonna, Merton, Rice Lake State Park and Bixby.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4407 9333 4420 9317 4420 9312 4417 9305
      4391 9305
TIME...MOT...LOC 0024Z 300DEG 31KT 4409 9318

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
736 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0718 PM     Hail             1 ENE Gibbon            44.54N 94.51W
06/23/2026  M0.75 Inch       Sibley             MN   Public

            Report via X.

&&

PV

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
749 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0627 PM     Funnel Cloud     4 W Kenyon              44.28N 93.07W
06/23/2026                   Rice               MN   Trained Spotter

            DELAYED REPORT: Video via NWSChat showing
            funnel cloud co-located with rotation on
            radar.

&&

PV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
749 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

MNZ065-240115-
Renville MN-
749 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL RENVILLE COUNTY UNTIL
815 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles north of Redwood Falls, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
  Bechyn, Morton and Franklin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.

&&

LAT...LON 4464 9520 4477 9515 4471 9476 4449 9486
      4450 9487 4452 9488 4452 9494 4453 9494
      4454 9498 4455 9499 4454 9502 4455 9501
      4455 9502 4457 9507 4457 9510 4458 9509
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 285DEG 27KT 4466 9512

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

NDC