Red Flag Warning 10, NWS Twin Cities, MN

497 
WWUS83 KMPX 170218
RFWMPX

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
918 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ041>045-050-170330-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FW.W.0010.000000T0000Z-260517T0200Z/
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-
918 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

$$

MPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
700 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Multiple rounds of thunderstorms expected Sunday through
  Monday. Greatest chances for severe thunderstorms are Sunday
  evening & monday afternoon/evening.

- Damaging wind gusts are the most likely hazard with the
  strongest thunderstorms Sunday evening through Sunday night.
  Large hail & a few tornadoes are possible earlier in the
  evening across southwest Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Anvil cirrus continues to clear off to the east overnight,
meaning we'll see plenty of Sun to kick off what is shaping p to
be a very pleasant Spring Saturday. Very dry humidity values
are expected for one more day, but lighter winds today will
mitigate any high fire weather concerns. Temperatures will top
off around 80 degrees this afternoon.

Clusters of thunderstorms are expected to develop late this
afternoon & evening near the SD/NE/IA border region & likely
become severe. Models have all come into consensus for the most
part this evening with keeping these storms south of the IA/MN
border today, so not expecting any weather concerns through this
evening. There is a chance that some residual convection on the
north side of the thunderstorm complex to our south could bring
some showers & thunder to southern Minnesota, but this would
have a low chance at becoming strong to severe. Models then
become widely varied on what happens Sunday morning, with the
legacy/AI global-scale deterministic models all favoring some
sort of widespread showers & thunderstorms across much of the
area, but high-resolution models remaining either dry or much
more sparse in terms of precipitation. Wile this morning
precipitation likely won't contain any severe weather or heavy
rainfall, it will influence what kind of environment we can
develop for potential severe thunderstorms later Sunday
afternoon & night.

Sunday still looks to have the better environment for severe
weather across our area, as very steep lapse rates potentially
lead to CAPE values up to 2000-3000 J/kg during the
afternoon/evening along with deep shear values increasing over
50 kts. However, the amount of instability later in the day
will ultimately depend on what kind of precipitation (if any )
we see Sunday morning, & how long that cloud cover lingers into
the afternoon. The general consensus idea from the high-
resolution models is that a few discrete storms will form over
the eastern Dakotas/central Plains during the afternoon,
potentially remaining discrete as they move northeastwards into
southwest Minnesota by early evening. These initial discrete
storms could become supercellular given the wind shear values,
meaning large hail (potentially 2-3" in diameter) & a few
tornadoes are possible along with damaging wind gusts. These
storms are then expected to merge into a line of storms, or
multiple line segments, & continue eastwards through Minnesota
& into Wisconsin through the late evening & overnight hours.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat once this
transition to a linear storm mode occurs, with the threat
likely waning across eastern Minnesota & western Wisconsin as
the storms begin to weaken towards midnight & later. We'll have
to monitor the timing trends as high-resolution models still
remain varied on when the initial storms initiate to our west &
how long the event takes to unfold as storm move east into
Wisconsin. In general, the earlier storms develop & move into
Minnesota, the greater chance we'll have for severe weather
with this event.

Confidence greatly decreases once we get past the storms Sunday
night, but another environment favorable for severe weather
could develop Monday afternoon & evening. However, how Monday
unfolds will depend greatly on how the storms Sunday night
unfold, & whether we see any secondary clusters of
thunderstorms continue on into Monday morning. Generally,
Monday's threat does look to be more favorable south of our area
across Iowa & southern Wisconsin, but we'll have to monitor how
the atmosphere evolves through the day on Monday & where any
residual outflow boundaries may set up.

In addition to the chances for severe weather Sunday-Monday,
the thunderstorms will also bring our first chance at a soaking
rainfall for much of the area this month. Sunday night's storms
have the best chance at producing a widespread soaking
rainfall, with HREF/REFS probability-matched precipitation
indicating amounts of 1-2" possible, although locally higher
amounts are certainly possible. Another round of soaking rain is
possible Sunday depending on where those storms end up. We do
look to dry out & return to seasonably cool temepratures once we
get past our stretch of active weather through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 659 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR condition today. Mostly clear skies will transition
to partly cloudy later this morning. Light winds will increase out
of the NW between 10-15kts with gusts 18-22kts, especially for AXN
and STC. All other sites, can still anticipate winds to increase
today although gusts are anticipated to remain below 18kts.
Widespread rain will build in from the SW late tonight and move
NE. Impacts from precip will be included in the next routine
issuance, however did give MKT a prob30 for potentially early
arrival of rain.

KMSP...Did tack on a prob30 for MVFR -SHRA for early Sunday morning.
However better coverage for rain and storms is expected Sunday
evening and will be introduced next routine issuance.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind ESE 10-15G30kts.
MON...-SHRA/-TSRA likely, IFR/MVFR. Wind SSW 10-15G20kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15G30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...ETA
AVIATION...Dunleavy

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
808 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
171315-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
808 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible late tonight into Sunday
morning. The strongest storms will produce heavy rain, frequent
lightning, and small hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms will be possible
Sunday evening across much of central and southern Minnesota.
Another round of strong to severe storms is expected to develop
Monday afternoon and evening, with the greatest severe weather
risk Monday shifting to southeastern Minnesota into western
Wisconsin.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed Sunday evening and on
Monday.

Strus