Flood Watch 5, NWS Twin Cities, MN

231 
WGUS63 KMPX 181121
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
621 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

MNZ093-191200-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.A.0005.260919T0000Z-260919T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Freeborn-
Including the cities of Albert Lea
621 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Freeborn County.

* WHEN...From this evening through Saturday morning.

* IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - There will be two rounds of rain today. A steady, light to
    moderate rain today, then the potential for training
    thunderstorms with heavy rainfall this evening. Where repeated
    rounds of storms move across the same area, there will be a
    threat for flash flooding, with maximum rainfall totals of 5 to 7
    inches possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

MPG

317 
WGUS63 KMPX 190218
FFAMPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
918 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

MNZ093-190900-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-260919T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Freeborn-
Including the cities of Albert Lea
918 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Minnesota, including the
  following county, Freeborn.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM CDT Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - The threat for training thunderstorms with heavy rainfall
    continues this evening where repeated rounds of storms move
    across the same area, there will be a threat for flash flooding,
    with maximum rainfall totals of 5 to 7 inches possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood
Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared
to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Dunleavy

119 
WGUS63 KMPX 190851
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

MNZ093-191000-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FA.A.0005.000000T0000Z-260919T0900Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Freeborn-
Including the cities of Albert Lea
351 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING...

The Flood Watch will expire for a portion of south central Minnesota,
including the following area, Freeborn.

The threat for additional heavy rain has ended. Therefore, the Flood
Watch will expire at 4 AM CDT early this morning.

$$

MPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
624 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread steady soaking rain is expected Friday into early
  Saturday.

- The highest amounts will be near I-90, where heavy rain
  and flooding are possible, mainly Friday evening.

- Looking ahead into next week, temperature remain near to
  slightly below normal, with a few small chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 157 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...The main concern is the
potential for heavy rain and flooding across southern Minnesota.
Latest guidance supports the greatest risk for thunderstorms
Friday evening along and near I-90. These storms will have
abundant moisture, and could be slow moving and/or back
building. Hourly rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches would be
possible, so any areas that see a couple hours of storms have a
potential for rainfall totals of 4, 5, 6 inches, or more. No
flood watches have been issued, but these would be needed later
if the trends continue to highlight southeast Minnesota.
Generally in the area of Owatonna and Albert Lea and points
east.

Elsewhere, widespread, soaking rain is still expected, but the
rainfall rates will be much less given the lack of instability.
Forecast soundings off the RRFS and HRRR for MSP only have
about 0.25 inches in any given hour, so even though total
amounts of 1 to 2 inches of rain seems likely by the time the
rain ends Friday night, the risk for flooding across central MN
and west central MN is pretty low, especially considering the
dry antecedent conditions.

The set up for all of this ties back to a shortwave that will lift
up from the southwest later tonight. A stationary boundary that was
laid out west-to-east along the I-80 corridor will lift northward as
a warm front. Precipitable water values are in excess of 2 inches
along this warm front, and strong southeast winds along the front
will lead to widespread rain and storms in the Dakotas overnight.
These will move eastward into Minnesota and Wisconsin on Friday, but
weaken as they run out of instability. This will lead to lower
rainfall rates, generally around 0.25 inches per hour. The lone
exception could be an enhancement of FGEN/rain along an elevated
front, but even then it would be tough to get rates over an inch per
hour given the lack of instability.

Farther south however is a different story. Forecast soundings show
elevated instability building near I-90, and some HiRes
guidance show thunderstorms developing Friday evening. This is
the main area of concern for flooding, generally after 6pm, and
ending by midnight.

SATURDAY, SUNDAY AND NEXT WEEK...Rain will exit the region Friday
night as the warm front pushes south, leaving low clouds behind. A
few showers could redevelop on Saturday, main to the south along I-
90 again. Given the clouds, northeast winds, and cooler airmass,
afternoon highs will be in the mid 60s, giving a fall-like feel to
the weekend.

Looking ahead, the aforementioned warm front will stall out across
Iowa and Illinois, keeping the rain chances to the south. There are
a few small chances for rain (10 to 20 percent) at times, but
overall drier ensemble guidance shows drier weather for next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

Mostly VFR with some MVFR CIGS across southern Minnesota this
evening. This will continue into the early overnight until
Friday's rain moves in from west to east. As the rain arrives
going with a prevailing MVFR impact with more of a TEMPO IFR. As
the lower atmosphere continues to saturate a more prevailing IFR
will take hold for much of the rest of the period. Thunderstorms
are possible, but outside of MKT confidence in their occurrence
was not high enough for PROB30 inclusion. Winds will be light
from a northeast direction this evening into tonight becoming
gusty from the east up to 20 knots tomorrow.

KMSP... Our just VFR cloud deck will remain with us this
evening. Tomorrow morning we will see the arrival of an all day
rain chance. This rain should remain MVFR with periods of
heavier IFR throughout the day. Winds will continue this evening
from a crosswind direction for the parallels, but should remain
10 knots or less. Winds will shift to the east as the rain
arrives overnight and into tomorrow morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Chc -SHRA. Wind NE 10-20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NE 10-20 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind E 5-10G15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Borghoff/JRB
AVIATION...NDC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

MNZ054-056-064-065-067-073>076-082>085-091>093-181930-
Lac Qui Parle-Chippewa-Yellow Medicine-Renville-Sibley-Redwood-
Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-
230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...south central Minnesota...southwest Minnesota and
west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will move in after midnight. The severe
weather risk is low, but some storms could produce heavy rain.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Heavy rain will continue Friday into early Saturday morning. The
heaviest rainfall amounts in excess of 3-4 inches are expected
along I-90. Localized flooding is possible, especially in urban
areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed, but rainfall
reports are appreciated.

MNZ041>045-047>053-055-057>063-066-068>070-077-078-WIZ014>016-
023>028-181930-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Swift-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-
Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-McLeod-Carver-Scott-Dakota-Rice-
Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Chippewa-
Eau Claire-
230 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southeast Minnesota...west central Minnesota...northwest
Wisconsin and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered thunderstorms Friday. The risk for severe weather is
very low.

Heavy rain is likely Friday into early Saturday morning across
southern Minnesota. The heaviest rainfall amounts in excess of
3-4 inches are expected along I-90. Localized flooding is
possible, especially in urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed, but rainfall
reports are appreciated.

jrb