Flood Watch 3, NWS Twin Cities, MN

015 
WGUS63 KMPX 310616
FFAMPX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
116 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.Heavy rainfall continues across west-central, southwest, and
south-central Minnesota. Slow moving thunderstorms are forecast to
generate widespread rainfall amounts of two to four inches, while
more localized amounts of greater than 6 inches are likely within the
band of heaviest rainfall. Flash flooding is possible where these
higher-end amounts occur, especially in low-lying areas & areas of
steeper terrain near near creeks and streams. Street & urban flooding
is also likely where heavy rainfall occurs over towns & cities.

MNZ082>085-091>093-312100-
/O.EXT.KMPX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260731T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Waseca, Fairmont,
Owatonna, Mankato, and St James
116 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...A portion of south central Minnesota, including the
  following counties, Blue Earth, Faribault, Freeborn, Martin,
  Steele, Waseca and Watonwan.

* WHEN...Through this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Localized rainfall amounts greater than six inches are likely
    within a more widespread swath of two to four inches of rain.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MNZ054>058-064>067-073>076-311700-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260731T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-
Including the cities of Montevideo, Granite Falls, Olivia, Redwood
Falls, St Peter, Benson, New Ulm, Willmar, Litchfield, Madison, Le
Sueur, Hutchinson, and Gaylord
116 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central, south central, southwest, and west
  central Minnesota, including the following areas, in central
  Minnesota, Kandiyohi, McLeod, Meeker, Renville and Sibley. In south
  central Minnesota, Brown, Le Sueur and Nicollet. In southwest
  Minnesota, Redwood. In west central Minnesota, Chippewa, Lac Qui
  Parle, Swift and Yellow Medicine.

* WHEN...Until noon CDT today.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding may occur
  in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Localized rainfall amounts greater than six inches are likely
    within a more widespread swath of two to four inches of rain.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

Strus

488 
WGUS63 KMPX 311635
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

MNZ082>085-091>093-311745-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260731T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-
Including the cities of St James, Blue Earth, Albert Lea, Owatonna,
Fairmont, Waseca, and Mankato
1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for a portion of south central
Minnesota, including the following areas, Blue Earth, Faribault,
Freeborn, Martin, Steele, Waseca and Watonwan.

Rainfall rates will be low enough the rest of the day so that Flash
Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please continue to
heed remaining road closures.

$$

MNZ054>058-064>067-073>076-311745-
/O.EXP.KMPX.FA.A.0003.000000T0000Z-260731T1700Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Yellow Medicine-
Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-
Including the cities of Benson, Granite Falls, Willmar, Olivia,
Madison, New Ulm, Litchfield, Le Sueur, Hutchinson, St Peter, Redwood
Falls, Montevideo, and Gaylord
1135 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...FLOOD WATCH WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CDT TODAY...

The Flood Watch will expire for portions of central, south central,
southwest, and west central Minnesota, including the following areas,
in central Minnesota, Kandiyohi, McLeod, Meeker, Renville and Sibley.
In south central Minnesota, Brown, Le Sueur and Nicollet. In
southwest Minnesota, Redwood. In west central Minnesota, Chippewa,
Lac Qui Parle, Swift and Yellow Medicine.

The flash flooding threat has ended. Therefore, the Flood Watch will
expire at noon CDT today.

$$

MPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
203 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A corridor of heavy rain remains on track to impact the MN River
Valley in SW Minnesota, starting this evening and continuing
overnight.

- 1-2" inches with localized 4+" of heavy rain expected with
localized flooding possible, especially in low-lying areas.

- Very pleasant this weekend, with below normal temps, and mostly
sunny skies.

- Hazy/smoky skies continue at times, but the chance for surface
  smoke and air quality impacts appear low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

We are basically in a holding pattern until our "main event" arrives
later this evening and tonight. Current satellite features a mix of
patchy upper-level cirrus draped and banded diurnal cu across
eastern MN and western WI while widespread stratus moves in
from the Dakotas. Temperatures range in the mid-80s and are
expected to top out near 90 degrees this afternoon. Parts of
southern and southwestern MN will be slightly cooler as cloud
cover in those regions is a bit more prevalent. Haze on the
horizon remains in place as elevated wildfire smoke continues to
linger over the northern plains. It is expected though that the
content of smoke decreases as we head into the weekend.

We continue to monitor the forward progress of a stacked low
pressure system which will move eastward tonight into Friday. This
system continues to be advertised as a sufficient rain maker thanks
to a deep moisture profile currently in place. It is expected
as we progress into this evening, the pressure gradient from the
low will tighten and generate widespread heavy rainfall. At
least during the late afternoon/early evening hours, severe
thunderstorms are possible however, but higher confidence for
any severe storms to occur is mainly over SD/NE. There is a
potential that a storm or two early this afternoon crosses our
western MN border and produces a damaging wind gust or two
before we transition to strictly a heavy rain threat.

As for forecasted amounts, confidence continues to hone in on a
swath of QPF between 1-2" with localized 4+" of rain along and south
of the MN River Valley and southwestern MN. Latest HREF 24-hr LPMM
does try and cling onto rainfall amounts near 1" as far north as I-
94 however, given the continued trends amongst most HREF membership
and other hi-res guidance, the more realistic amount for eastern MN
(incl. the TC Metro) are closer to a few tenths of an inch at most.
Similar to snowfall events here, the gradient at which the highest
rainfall amounts are found will be sharp. This system will be slow
moving and thus allow for areas to observe prolonged heavy rainfall,
therefore localized flooding/ponding in low-lying areas will be
possible. At this time, it isn't until late Friday afternoon
until precip clears. Aside from the rainfall, it will feel much
cooler as temps will struggle to get out of the low to mid-70s.

Once this system passes, upper-level ridging will take hold over the
northern plains. Skies will be mostly sunny with highs in the mid
80s and lows in 50s to lower 60s just in time for the weekend. As we
enter into early next week, another upper-level wave will track
across the Int'l border. This likely looks to produce another shot
of rain/storms across northern MN but still some time left to
determine the southern extent. Temperatures for the remainder of the
period will range at or just below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Main question this period is when does precip arrive. Antecedent
airmass over MN is dry, so we did delay precip onset a few
hours across the board. Rain will for sure impact RWF/MKT this
period. AXN/STC/MSP should see rain, but it looks lighter at
these locations and also looks to lack TS. Given the dry east
low-level flow we're expecting, did keep cigs VFR for all but
RWF/MKT, where the heavier rain and deeper moisture will allow
cigs to drop lower at those sites.

KMSP...Did remove TS mention from MSP, with HREF thunder probs
remaining SW of MSP, with the NBM keeping TS probabilities out
of the Twin Cities as well. This just looks like a multi-hour
light rain event.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. Wind N 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind ESE 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Wind SSE 5-10 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Dunleavy/EP
AVIATION...MPG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
339 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

MNZ041>043-047>051-054>059-064>069-073>077-082>085-091>093-310845-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-Benton-Sherburne-
Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Redwood-Brown-
Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Watonwan-Blue Earth-Waseca-Steele-Martin-
Faribault-Freeborn-
339 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Minnesota...east central Minnesota...south central Minnesota...
southwest Minnesota and west central Minnesota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and tonight.
The probability for severe weather is low, but widespread heavy
rainfall is likely across southern and western Minnesota during
the late evening and overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

MNZ044-045-052-053-060>063-070-078-WIZ014>016-023>028-310845-
Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Isanti-Chisago-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-
Washington-Dakota-Goodhue-Polk-Barron-Rusk-St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-
Pepin-Chippewa-Eau Claire-
339 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Minnesota...southeast Minnesota...northwest Wisconsin and west
central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation will not be needed.

Borghoff