Flood Watch 1, NWS Twin Cities, MN

529 
WGUS63 KMPX 080425
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1125 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.A swath of slow moving thunderstorms is expected to track east
across portions of central Minnesota through the early morning hours.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected, with localized
amounts of 4 inches or more possible.

MNZ041-042-047>049-081200-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-260708T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Including the cities of Morris, Alexandria, St Cloud, Long Prairie,
and Glenwood
1125 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and west central Minnesota, including
  the following counties, in central Minnesota, Stearns and Todd. In
  west central Minnesota, Douglas, Pope and Stevens.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Localized rainfall amounts of 4 or more inches possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

MNZ043>045-050-081500-
/O.CON.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-260708T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-
Including the cities of Sauk Rapids, Little Falls, Mora, and
Princeton
1125 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Flash flooding caused by excessive rainfall continues to be
  possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and east central Minnesota, including
  the following counties, in central Minnesota, Benton and Morrison.
  In east central Minnesota, Kanabec and Mille Lacs.

* WHEN...Until 10 AM CDT Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Localized rainfall amounts of 4 or more inches possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&

$$

JPC

227 
WGUS63 KMPX 080950
FFAMPX

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
450 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

MNZ041-042-047>049-081100-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-260708T1200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Douglas-Todd-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Including the cities of Glenwood, St Cloud, Long Prairie, Morris, and
Alexandria
450 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central and west central
Minnesota, including the following areas, in central Minnesota,
Stearns and Todd. In west central Minnesota, Douglas, Pope and
Stevens.

Flash Flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

MNZ043>045-050-081100-
/O.CAN.KMPX.FA.A.0001.000000T0000Z-260708T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Benton-
Including the cities of Princeton, Mora, Little Falls, and Sauk
Rapids
450 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Watch is cancelled for portions of central and east central
Minnesota, including the following areas, in central Minnesota,
Benton and Morrison. In east central Minnesota, Kanabec and Mille
Lacs.

Flash flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. Please
continue to heed remaining road closures.

$$

MPG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1245 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Another round of strong to severe storms arrives by late
  evening, lasting into Wednesday. Strong winds and hail are the
  primary risks, with a non-zero chance for a tornado. Heavy
  rain could also lead to localized flooding, with the best
  chance in central MN.

- Additional chances for showers and storms decreases after
  tomorrow, with temperatures increasing into the weekend and
  early next week. Heat headlines may be needed.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Regional radar mosaic shows the decaying line of showers and storms
pushing through southern Minnesota as of 245am, with the only real
storm to speak of in southwestern Minnesota. The rest of the line
has largely crumbled into some rumbles of thunder without any
notable updrafts, and this is expected to remain the case as it
further weakens heading south into Iowa. Some gusty winds are also
still present on the order of 30-40mph within the showers, falling
back as it moves out this morning. We quickly transition away from
the morning round of storms to another round expected to arrive
during the evening today lasting into Wednesday, with the best
chance for severe storms looking to be west-central into central
Minnesota where the combination of a strong shortwave embedded
within zonal upper level flow combines with a 850mb LLJ around
00z to form clusters of storms where ND/SD/MN meet. A surface
low spinning up will also produce a subtle thermal boundary
overspreading the area, the position of which will likely
dictate the southern extent of the showers and storms. PWATs are
within the top 99th percentile within the NAEFS over western MN
at 06z, showcasing the robust WAA/moisture advection via the
LLJ. Areas of flooding are probable depending on the amount of
moisture received from tonight's round of storms and a short-
range flood watch may be needed ahead of time as we see guidance
come together this afternoon. As for severe storms, forecast
soundings from western MN showcase 750-1500 J/KG MUCAPE, likely
being undercut by the significant WAA in the lower levels from
the LLJ. Time of day also plays a factor, given the best forcing
arrives after 00z and lasts into the early morning hours of
Wednesday. Given the nocturnal nature, strong winds will
certainly be a threat, with hail also possible. There is a non-
zero tornado risk as LCLs will be below 1000ft with significant
low level speed shear and a veering profile making for a
decently curved hodograph. Overall there will likely be some
severe storms and the main question is how widespread the
coverage ends up, and if competing factors such as the high
PWATs cuts into hail production or the low level capping keeps
storms from being surface based.

This cluster of storms is expected to continue to migrate eastwards
across central Minnesota overnight with continued scattered storms
forming until the cold front pushes out of the area later in the day
on Wednesday. Areas that get hit by multiple rounds of storms
overnight and during the day Wednesday have the greatest chance for
localized flooding, with HREF PMM values exceeding 3 inches in
portions of central Minnesota hovering near the border of the
FGF/DLH/MPX CWAs. Ensemble max values of near 5-6" highlights
just how anomalous the moisture content and potential for
flooding is within this system. Showers will end from northwest
to southeast as the final frontal boundary moves through,
leaving us drying out overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

As the last of the showers and storms depart, the forecast focus
shifts towards the significant heat dome building over the central
CONUS by the end of the weekend and into next week. NAEFs forecast
values for 500mb heights are maxed out or never before seen, with
some model guidance pushing out 600dam heights by Monday morning.
Even the AIFS guidance, which would tend away from the most
anomalous forecast shows over 594dam heights, with the position
for the center of the ridge favoring the central plains. Model
guidance is already picking up on the significant heat likely
arriving with this heat dome, with the deterministic ECMWF
showcasing highs in the triple digits at MSP early next week and
overnight lows for a few days around 80. While this is towards
the upper end of guidance, it shows just how significant the
coming heat will be. Within the ensemble guidance, the lowest
forecast temperatures in the Twin Cities on Tuesday are in the
low to mid 90s, so significant heat is all but certain even at
this time scale. We will have far more to share as we get a bit
closer, but expect to see a lot of chatter about the incoming
heat in the days to come.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Main focus early in the 18z period is the eastward progression
of midday thunderstorms across eastern SD and western MN.
Trajectory of the complex brings TSRA potential into AXN
between 19-21z. Confidence in the cluster of storms reaching STC
is currently low, however observational trends may require a
short term AMD this afternoon. Otherwise, short term convective
models remain in relatively solid agreement with the placement
of a training complex of storms set to span from west to east
across central MN tonight. In addition, a few storms may be
strong to severe across western & central MN. Based on the
latest trends in the guidance and anticipated boundary
placement, we have continued the theme of several hours of TSRA
at AXN/STC. Storm potential will begin to drift southeast by
daybreak and beyond. Convective coverage is uncertain tomorrow
morning, however there is a good signal for renewed shower and
storm development along a southeastward moving boundary through
the end of the 18z period.

KMSP...Short term guidance continues to place the heaviest axis
of rain and thunderstorms to the north of MSP tonight into
tomorrow morning. Eventually, a boundary will move southeast and
bring potential and and thunderstorms near the terminal, but our
latest thinking is that probably won't happen until mid-morning.
The convective window will persist until early afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
THU...MVFR chc IFR cigs in mrng. VFR aftn. Wind NE 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SE 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind S 5-10kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...TDH
AVIATION...Strus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1005 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-
081515-
Douglas-Todd-Morrison-Mille Lacs-Kanabec-Stevens-Pope-Stearns-
Benton-Sherburne-Isanti-Chisago-Lac Qui Parle-Swift-Chippewa-
Kandiyohi-Meeker-Wright-Hennepin-Anoka-Ramsey-Washington-
Yellow Medicine-Renville-McLeod-Sibley-Carver-Scott-Dakota-
Redwood-Brown-Nicollet-Le Sueur-Rice-Goodhue-Watonwan-Blue Earth-
Waseca-Steele-Martin-Faribault-Freeborn-Polk-Barron-Rusk-
St. Croix-Pierce-Dunn-Pepin-Eau Claire-
1005 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central and
southern Minnesota, and west central Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon in
western Minnesota and continue through the night across central
and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. There is a level 2
of 5 severe risk for most of central and southern Minnesota, with
a level 1 risk in Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts will be the
primary risk, with a risk for large hail and a tornado or two in
western Minnesota. In addition to the severe risk, the potential
for multiple rounds of thunderstorms over the same location will
lead to a risk for flash flooding, especially across west central
and central Minnesota.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and occasionally severe weather
will continue through Wednesday night. The severe weather and
heavy rainfall risks for Wednesday will shift to south central
and east central Minnesota into west central Wisconsin.

This weekend, heat and humidity are expected to build back into
Minnesota and Wisconsin. Afternoon heat index values near 100
Sunday and Monday will lead to an increased risk for dangerous
heat late this weekend into early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN spotter activation may be needed.

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
904 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     4 S Motley              46.28N 94.65W
07/06/2026                   Morrison           MN   Public

            Report of multiple 12-18 inch diameter trees
            uprooted (diameter estimate based off photos
            on social media).

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1012 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 NW Alexandria         45.92N 95.42W
07/06/2026                   Douglas            MN   Local Official

            Delayed report, time estimated from radar.
            Douglas County Public Works Official
            reported trees down on the Central Lakes
            Trail near Alexandria, MN.

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1051 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     Little Falls            45.98N 94.36W
07/06/2026                   Morrison           MN   Emergency Mngr

            Delayed report, time estimated from radar.
            Morrison County EM reported multiple trees
            and tree limbs down across Little Falls, MN.
            A larger tree was blown down on power line
            within the town.

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1135 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Atwater            45.15N 94.76W
07/04/2026                   Kandiyohi          MN   Public

            Delayed report, time estimated from radar.
            Report on social media (video) of extensive
            damage done to a grain bin just northeast of
            Atwater, MN.

&&

LPR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1140 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     2 NE Atwater            45.16N 94.76W
07/04/2026                   Kandiyohi          MN   Public

            Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2
            NE Atwater. Delayed report, time estimated
            from radar. Report on social media (video)
            of extensive damage done to a grain bin just
            northeast of Atwater, MN.

&&

LPR