Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Shower and thunderstorm chances will steadily increase in
  coverage each afternoon through Friday, gradually diminishing
  this weekend. Storms will be capable of producing strong to
  locally damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and frequent lightning.

- Summer continues across the area with heat indices topping out
  at around 100-107 degrees each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

A broad mid-level trough will amplify through the day and dig
southward as a ridge to our west retrogrades. This will place the
forecast area under stronger northwest flow aloft through the end
of the work week. Several shortwaves are expected to rotate
around the base of the trough, enhancing the forcing over the
area. Given the moist airmass, PWs near 2 inches, this forcing
will aid in afternoon convection, which we're starting to see over
our northwest counties. A few storms may develop strong enough
updrafts to produce gusty winds this afternoon. Otherwise, temps
will climb into the lower to mid 90s this afternoon.

The trough will continue to amplify overnight, while surface flow
remains relatively weak. Meanwhile, a cluster of storms currently
moving through the Midsouth will likely spark additional outflows
through the afternoon. Guidance is picking up on these boundaries
and developing additional thunderstorms overnight. Given the
forcing aloft as a shortwave traverses the region, storms are
expected to continue overnight, reaching our northern zones early
Thursday morning. There are a lot of discrepancies on timing and
location, but there's enough consensus to warrant scattered to
numerous PoPs beginning early Thursday morning. An inversion
overnight may alleviate the potential for any of these storms
becoming severe; however, I'm not too confident that we will cool
as much as guidance is suggesting. So, all of that is to say
we'll likely begin to see thunderstorms developing near sunrise,
with a potential for a couple of rounds of thunderstorms through
the day. The main threat with these storms will be locally heavy
rainfall. Where storms train over the same area or if rainfall
rates are high enough, some flash flooding is possible.

Although the bulk of precip will come to an end Thursday evening, a
boundary is expected to stall in the vicinity of the area, though
uncertainty remains high on exactly where this boundary stalls. The
trough will remain over the area on Friday, with additional
thunderstorms expected to develop along the boundary. At this point,
the most likely areas to see storms will be along and east/south of
I-65. This may change over the next day or two, as we gain more
clarity on where the boundary stalls. Rain chances will decrease
through the weekend as the ridge to our west pushes east and the
trough exits the area. /73

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through much of the forecast period.
Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop, but
with lower confidence, have opted to keep the PROP30 group. This
activity will come to an end around sunset. Additional storms are
possible Thursday morning and may be included in subsequent
updates as confidence increases. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 111 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /73

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  89  71  88 /  30  80  50  70
Pensacola   76  88  74  87 /  30  80  60  60
Destin      77  87  75  86 /  40  80  50  50
Evergreen   70  90  69  89 /  40  80  40  70
Waynesboro  72  91  70  92 /  50  60  50  50
Camden      72  88  71  89 /  40  70  50  60
Crestview   71  90  70  87 /  30  70  40  70

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1216 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

ALZ051-053-261800-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-
1216 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN CLARKE
COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM CDT...

At 1215 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Snell, or 13 miles west of Butler. This storm was
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Butler, Lisman, Gilbertown, and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3209 8804 3206 8807 3207 8810 3206 8812
      3202 8812 3199 8810 3201 8809 3199 8807
      3199 8794 3180 8808 3179 8843 3189 8847
      3220 8844 3226 8820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1715Z 340DEG 4KT 3214 8845

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
121 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

ALZ053-054-261900-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-
121 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLARKE AND
SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES THROUGH 200 PM CDT...

At 121 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles west of Thomasville, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomasville and Pine Hill.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8750 3181 8752 3177 8752 3184 8791
      3199 8793 3199 8767 3200 8766 3200 8763
      3203 8762 3204 8751
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 264DEG 17KT 3192 8781

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM