Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very hot conditions continue today with peak heat indices in the
  108 to 112 range.

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon will continue
  to be capable of producing brief intense rainfall, excessive
  lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
Issued at 525 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Ongoing this afternoon, keeping a close eye on convection ongoing
generally along and north of the I-10 corridor. Plenty of support
in place for strong to severe thunderstorms, including ample dry
air entrainment per recent GOES-16 Precipitable water, resulting
in extremely high DCAPE across central MS/AL and plenty of
available instability. Environmental favorability for severe
weather is in place, but focus will be on any outflow boundary
and/or seabreeze interactions to individual, pulse-like severe
storms causing damaging downburst winds. REFS guidance/trends
slides all convection south late this afternoon/evening, but not
entirely sure this will happen as they interact with the post-
seabreeze environment along the coast, with low confidence on
this activity sagging south through the evening. If it does, the
severe threat will transition into coastal marine areas around
sunset with ongoing gusty winds the main risks.

Drier air filters into the area tomorrow through Sunday,
resulting in lower forecast PoPs and greater PBL mixing to cause a
reduction in the heat risk. Not anticipating the need for an
advisory tomorrow as heat indices range in the 103-106 range,
still hot though. Could still see an isolated storm along the
seabreeze, but keeping PoPs in the 10-20% range both Saturday and
Sunday afternoons.

Monday into next week, focus shifts to the northwest as we could
likely see distinct PVA/impulses riding around the periphery of
the ridge across the four corners region. This could introduce a
series of long-distant MCS's from the central MS valley region
into the northern Gulf coast. Something we'll need to carefully
monitor for Monday and Tuesday.

Mid to late week, we return right back to the typical summertime
pattern but again with ongoing impulses from the north. Afternoon
heat indices remain below criteria/heat risk impacts remain
limited throughout the week with highs in the low 90's, but PoPs
remain elevated with daily localized strong to isolated severe
storm risks. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Scattered showers and storms are expected through early to mid
evening across portions of the area. A few of the TAF sites may
experience brief drops to MVFR or lower conditions and gusty winds
with this activity through around 01-02Z, though isolated strong to
severe storms may persist a bit longer over the interior. Additional
showers and storms cannot be ruled out along the immediate coast
late tonight into early Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the period. Light northerly flow is
expected for Saturday, turning more southerly or southwesterly along
the coast at around 8-12 knots in the afternoon. JGC/98

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

No impacts expected other than locally higher winds and seas
possible near thunderstorms. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      74  95  74  96 /  30  10   0  20
Pensacola   78  93  78  95 /  20  20   0  20
Destin      79  91  79  93 /  40  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  97  71  98 /  40  10   0  10
Waynesboro  72  99  73 100 /  30   0   0   0
Camden      72  97  72  96 /  20   0   0  10
Crestview   73  96  72  97 /  30  20  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ261-263-MSZ079-220015-
Mobile Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-George MS-
629 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE AND EASTERN
GEORGE COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM CDT...

At 628 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wilmer, or 14 miles southeast of Lucedale, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Saraland, Chickasaw, Satsuma, Lucedale, Semmes,
Tanner Williams, I65 And I165, I65 And AL 158, Mobile Regional
Airport, and Wilmer.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3068 8841 3074 8841 3074 8870 3100 8861
      3100 8842 3085 8802 3064 8814
TIME...MOT...LOC 2328Z 297DEG 22KT 3083 8838

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
720 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

ALZ052>055-220100-
Clarke AL-Wilcox AL-Monroe AL-Washington AL-
720 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...CLARKE AND SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southeast of Putnam to near Leroy.
Movement was southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Thomasville, Grove Hill, Saint Stephens, Leroy, Whatley,
Pine Hill, and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central and southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3198 8750 3146 8749 3151 8786 3129 8791
      3155 8807 3199 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 299DEG 14KT 3195 8795 3153 8795

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

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