Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
105 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

- Hot conditions continue through the weekend and into next week.
  Heat advisories remain in effect through late this afternoon and
  again Sunday afternoon for high heat indices up to 112.
  Additional heat headlines will likely be needed into early next
  week.

- A Low risk of rip currents continues through the weekend, with a
  Moderate risk of rip currents returning for Florida Panhandle
  beaches on Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Starting off with this afternoon, quiet and hot! Surface high
pressure to our west has introduced a general light northerly
low-level flow pattern over the local area. This has allowed the
nightly land breeze boundary to drive well south into our outer
marine waters. This light northerly flow may also delay the normal
northward advancement of the coastal seabreeze circulation, which
means we'll keep a close eye on areas out ahead of the boundary
this afternoon as we could tap noticably hotter for interior
coastal locations, especially compared to yesterday before mixing
out. Meanwhile farther north, into interior Alabama, a deeper PBL
mixing regime will provide lower forecast Td's compared to NBM
guidance, and did add an adjustment there where heat index values
will range 103-108 on average. Will need to continue to monitor
the coast into interior coastal locations today through early next
week, as it's not entirely impossible to reach at/near extreme
heat. Heat Risk is noticably pinging on extreme for many areas and
will need to reassess the longevity in regards to impacts coming
up. Will continue to emphasize messaging and express heat
precautions for those outdoors for extended periods.

Otherwise, this same northerly flow will supply greater sfc
confluence later today to add a boost/focus point for greater
localized ascent to get convection going. May distinctly see
several strong/isolated severe storms along the I-10 corridor
mid/late afternoon into the evening hours, with localized
downburst/microburst potential. North of the seabreeze, Convective
T will be reached (actually as of 18Z, already is) across
interior Al leading to free-forming, diurnally forced convection.
NBM PoPs appear very plausible with a noticeable uptick today in
the 30-60% coverage range, going to keep this going as it matches
well with REFS/HRRR trends and continue to monitor for a few
strong/isolated severe storms later today.

Tomorrow into early next week, the ridge continues to slowly
bleed west allowing for an areal increase in weakness with time.
NBM PoPs did come in higher Mon and Tue, which makes sense with a
couple of weak mid-level impulses (likely remnant energy lingering
from prior days convection) riding east to west, providing a bit
of an uptick in coverage especially where seabreeze interactions
allow for enhanced low-level confluence to spark more locally
strong to isolated severe storms each mid/late afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will continue to be watched, as we'll easily
remain in Heat Advisory range through early next week. Again,
will monitor any potential need for extreme heat, especially near
the coast.

One quick note about the extended into next weekend, seeing long-
range cluster analysis hint at greater/deeper troughing sliding
south across the MS valley region into the SE US, with relatively
confident GEFS/EPS/CMC ensemble alignment. This may provide an
even more noticeable uptick in daily shower/storm coverage in the
long range, something to monitor. KLG

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Expect VFR conditions for many area terminals this afternoon, but
the main focus will be isolated to scattered TSRA development
along the coastal seabreeze this afternoon, filling in north
through the evening. Introduced Prob30's approx timed based on
short-term guidance, with most to all activity coming to an end
around sunset with VFR prevailing. KLG

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A light to occasionally moderate southwesterly to westerly flow
pattern persists across the marine waters through the rest of this
weekend, and into next week, with light to moderate westerly flow
becoming established around the middle of next week. Isolated to
potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  98  77  98 /  10  20   0  20
Pensacola   80  96  80  97 /  10  30   0  10
Destin      82  94  82  95 /  10  30   0  10
Evergreen   76  99  76  99 /  10  10   0  10
Waynesboro  76  99  74  99 /  10   0   0  20
Camden      76  99  77  99 /  10   0   0  10
Crestview   76  98  76  99 /  10  40   0  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
124 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ057-058-151915-
Butler AL-Crenshaw AL-
124 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER AND WEST
CENTRAL CRENSHAW COUNTIES THROUGH 215 PM CDT...

At 124 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Rutledge, or 11 miles west of Luverne, moving south at
5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Butler
and west central Crenshaw Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8658 3181 8639 3159 8633 3160 8661
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 358DEG 5KT 3170 8646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
151 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ055-056-151930-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-
151 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTH
CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM CDT...

At 151 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Beatrice, or 17 miles north of Evergreen. This storm
was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern Monroe
and north central Conecuh Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3176 8691 3173 8690 3163 8691 3161 8689
      3159 8689 3158 8687 3155 8687 3153 8684
      3154 8717 3177 8714
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 358DEG 4KT 3168 8702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ056-060-152015-
Conecuh AL-Covington AL-
227 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL CONECUH AND
NORTHWESTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 227 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Red Level, or 13 miles northwest of Andalusia, moving southeast at 5
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, River Falls, Red Level, Heath, and Gantt.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3124 8669 3147 8677 3152 8664 3153 8649
      3135 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1927Z 331DEG 6KT 3146 8664

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ057-152030-
Butler AL-
245 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BUTLER COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles north of Georgiana, or 11 miles southwest of Greenville, moving
southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3178 8690 3183 8671 3165 8655 3155 8684
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 335DEG 6KT 3171 8676

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
300 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ056-059-152045-
Conecuh AL-Escambia AL-
300 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ESCAMBIA AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 300 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Castleberry, or 11 miles north of Brewton. This storm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Castleberry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3130 8715 3137 8701 3122 8685 3111 8705
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 326DEG 1KT 3126 8702

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

ALZ263-265-152100-
Mobile Coastal AL-Mobile Central AL-
321 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 320 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles west of Theodore, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grand Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3045 8840 3067 8841 3063 8819 3047 8821
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 092DEG 7KT 3056 8828

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM