Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into
  early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
  on Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The forecast remains on track with some mainly isolated areas of
convection in southern Alabama and southeast Mississippi. Convection
will begin subsiding over the next couple hours as we approach
sunset. SS/97

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Through Sunday, an upper high off the East Coast builds west over
the Southeast, shifting a weakness in an upper ridge over the
Southeast further west. A surface ridge stretching west over the
northern Gulf coast shifts north to over the Southeast proper,
albeit remains disorganized with the upper weakness over/near the
region still exerting some influence. The limited organized deep
layer flow off the Gulf will keep moisture levels around 2", with
guidance advertising bands of drier air moving over the the forecast
area at times into the weekend. The inconsistent moisture levels
along with building upper ridge is limiting PoPs to isolated to
scattered, mainly afternoon/early evening over land areas, the rest
of the week through the weekend. Am also still expecting isolated
convection to form over the open Gulf and coast later in the night
into the morning hours as the slight cooling over Gulf waters allow
for shallow (relative to land areas) convection to form. With good
afternoon instability (MLCapes rising to 2000-2500J/kg at times),
but limited wind shear, pulse type storms are expected. Add in
DCapes around 1000J/kg range, damaging downbursts are possible in
the taller storms.

Subsidence from the upper ridge will keep temperatures around to a
bit above seasonal norms through Sunday. High temperatures in the
low to mid 90s (around 90 along the coast) are expected. Low
temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s along the coast are
expected. Heat indices generally in the 100-107 degree range are
expected each day.

Monday on, guidance starts to diverge in the upper levels, with some
deterministic guidance advertising the upper weakness west of the
Southeast working its way back east over the region, whilst others
keep it west. The result is a bit warmer/drier forecast as apposed
to a bit cooler/wetter. The overall difference is small, so near
seasonal temperatures and PoPs a bit below are expected.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to
a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better
organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Current winds will begin
to wane as we approach sunset. Winds will increase to 5-10 knots
tomorrow morning and prevail generally southerly to southeasterly
with periodic gusts up to 15 knots. There is a chance for showers
and thunderstorms tomorrow morning near the coast and again for
the afternoon into the evening. These are accompanied by stronger
wind gusts and drops of cigs/vis to MVFR and even locally IFR
within the strongest storms. SS/97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf
coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow
through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to
offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land
breeze sets up with the night cooling.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      73  91  73  93 /  10  20   0  20
Pensacola   76  90  76  92 /  10  20   0  20
Destin      77  89  77  91 /  10  20  10  10
Evergreen   71  92  72  92 /  20  10  10  20
Waynesboro  72  95  73  95 /  20   0  10  20
Camden      73  91  73  91 /  10  10  10  20
Crestview   72  93  72  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
350 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 AM     Tornado          3 ESE Avera             31.28N 88.70W
06/18/2026                   Greene             MS   NWS Storm Survey

            Another EF0 tornado was found via NISAR and
            Planet satellite imagery in rural Greene
            County southeast of Avera. The tornado
            occurred almost solely in forest, beginning
            northeast of Highway 63 near William Roberts
            Road. This tornado caused minor tree damage
            along its track, mainly with damage to
            treetops and the occasional uproot. A weak
            radar tornado debris signature was also
            noted off KMOB radar collocated with a
            strong velocity couplet.

&&

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
551 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

MSZ075-062330-
Perry MS-
551 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

At 551 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Richton. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Richton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3143 8884 3141 8884 3125 8889 3125 8902
      3143 8910
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 182DEG 2KT 3132 8894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
621 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

ALZ053-055-070000-
Clarke AL-Monroe AL-
621 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN MONROE AND EAST CENTRAL
CLARKE COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

At 621 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles southeast of Whatley, or 14 miles northwest of Frisco City.
This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Monroe and
east central Clarke Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3153 8749 3153 8760 3156 8765 3169 8766
      3168 8748
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 182DEG 1KT 3160 8756

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
652 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

ALZ053-070030-
Clarke AL-
652 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTY
THROUGH 730 PM CDT...

At 652 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles northeast of Whatley, or 8 miles east of Grove Hill, moving
northwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Grove Hill and Fulton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 8757 3163 8757 3161 8763 3175 8784
      3187 8764
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 143DEG 10KT 3168 8764

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

MM