Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
644 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 643 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- A few storms may produce strong to locally damaging wind gusts,
  heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning east of
  I-65 today.

- A High Risk of rip currents will continue through tonight for
  all area beaches.

- Moderate to strong winds over the marine area may create
  hazardous conditions for small craft today.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

The current package is on track. Numerous showers and storms near
the coast are anticipated to transition to isolated to scattered
convection near and east of I-65 today. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 108 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A cold front depicted on the surface observation plot and being
detected by regional radars currently stretches from central
Alabama to southern Mississippi. This front will continue to move
very slowly southeastward and reach the I-65 corridor by late this
afternoon and eventually just offshore by late tonight. The
boundary will then waver along the coast as a sea-breeze pushes
slightly inland Monday afternoon and then south of the coast by
Tuesday morning due to developing land-breeze. This boundary is
associated with an upper positively-tilted upper trough currently
stretching from the Great Lakes to the Lower Mississippi River
that will slowly push eastward through noon Monday. This trough is
then expected to dissipate through Monday night, but an upper
cutoff low will be left behind roughly centered over northern
Georgia and that will slowly lift northward over the Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday.

For today, abundant moisture will be in place ahead of the cold
front with PWATs ranging from 2.1-2.3 inches. We are still
forecasting numerous to widespread showers and storms over coastal
Alabama and northwest Florida this morning due to shortwave
energy aloft with additional development across south central
Alabama this afternoon due to forcing along an 850mb front and
daytime surface heating. Because of the slowness of this system,
we expect scattered showers and storms to linger south of a line
from Andalusia to Mobile this evening before tapering off to the
southeast.

With a drier airmass filtering in from the northwest, dry
conditions will prevail Monday and Tuesday, but can not rule out a
few afternoon storms moving south over our far eastern zones
along the western periphery of the upper cutoff low pressure area.
A few afternoon storms are then expected on Wednesday along a
sea-breeze as we return to a diurnal convection pattern. High
temperatures today through midweek will be in the lower to middle
90s, but with the drier air mass filtering in, heat indices should
remain below Heat Advisory criteria through much of the week. A
High Risk of Rip Currents will be in place through tonight,
lowering to a Moderate Risk for Monday. The rip current risk drops
to a Low Risk for Tuesday and into midweek. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 643 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Numerous showers and storms near the coast are anticipated to
gradually transition to isolated to scattered convection near
and east of I-65 through the early afternoon, then taper off to
dry conditions tonight. IFR/MVFR conditions will be possible with
the stronger storms along with gusty winds. A westerly flow at
5-15 knots today, with the stronger flow near the coast,
diminishes to 5 knots or less this evening. /29

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Moderate to occasionally strong westerly to southwesterly winds
gradually weaken tonight and become northwesterly to westerly. A
Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for Mobile Bay and the
Mississippi Sound until 7 am, and continues until 4 pm this
afternoon for the open Gulf waters. A light to moderate westerly
to southwesterly flow develops on Monday then becomes southerly on
Wednesday. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  72  92  73 /  30  20  10  10
Pensacola   89  76  92  77 /  80  40  10  10
Destin      87  77  89  78 /  90  60  10  20
Evergreen   91  69  90  70 /  30  10  10   0
Waynesboro  91  70  92  70 /   0   0  10   0
Camden      90  70  90  71 /  10   0  10   0
Crestview   89  71  92  71 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

FLZ205-206-021745-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
1213 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN OKALOOSA COUNTY
THROUGH 1245 PM CDT...

At 1213 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Niceville, moving east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Niceville and Valparaiso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3047 8655 3063 8655 3066 8639 3048 8640
TIME...MOT...LOC 1713Z 267DEG 10KT 3055 8647

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH