Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1247 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

 - A High Risk of rip currents is in place across the Alabama
   and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through the rest of the day.
   A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across the Alabama
   and northwest Florida Gulf beaches through midweek.

 - A series of storm complexes will likely approach from the
   northwest through Thursday, bringing a chance for localized
   strong wind gusts and additional locally heavy rainfall.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

22.12Z Upper air maps show a flat mid-level ridge oriented east
to west from the southwest Atlantic to the Gulf. North of the
ridge, embedded in the westerlies is a short wave trof at mid to
high levels ejecting eastward across the MS Valley. At the
surface, high pressure over the Gulf is maintaining a southwest
flow over the area. To the north, a front extends from the OH
River Valley southwest into north TX. The local environment is
potent w/regard to instability w/SBCAPEs 3500 to 4000 J/KG. Shear
weak. Although a bit lower than last week, environmental moisture
(PWAT's: 1.7 to 2.0") is still more than sufficient to support
rain chances. An average of the range being about one standard
deviation above the means for the latter half of June. Despite
sufficiency in environmental instability and moisture, showers
and storms look to remain mostly isolated in coverage the
remainder of the day. Upstream however, southeast of the front, a
convective outflow boundary was tracking southeast across central
MS and forecasters will be watching this feature in the near term
as a point of focus for additional convective initiation
organizing into a line later today. The high resolution short
range ensembles suggest a linear convective band dropping
southeast over the interior this evening, primarily along and
north of US Highway 84. Some of the storms could be strong to
marginally severe with strong to briefly severe wind gusts being
the main threat. There are indications that the line will begin to
break up/weaken by and after midnight as the boundary spreads
southward and the right rear quadrant of H85 jet 30-35kts lifts
out across the GA.

We appear to be moving into a challenging, convectively active period
Tuesday through Thursday as mid-level systems caught up in an
evolving northwest flow aloft favor the passage of a series of
convective complexes. In addition to these, left over weak
mesoscale boundaries in a persistently moist and unstable
environment leads to probabilities of precipitation (PoPs) at
chance to likely each day. PoPs lower each night and reflect more
of a summer-time diurnal convective mode. Some of storms possibly
strong to marginally severe. Locally heavy rains also a
possibility, but hopefully occurrences will be brief. Rain cooled
bubble highs in the wake of the storms would favor limited
residence time over any one location to present flooding problems
with more of a progressive storm motion. But considering the
recent excessive rainfall event we are coming out of, it will not
take much for a flooding response, especially on poor drained
lower lying and urban areas. So forecasters will be watching this
closely as well.

A transition into a more benign weather pattern sets up Friday and
more so into the weekend as upper level high pressure builds.

Highest daytime heat indices through the period range mostly 101 to
106. Tuesday, there are a few locations especially closer to bays
and inland waterways which may be around 108.

High Risk of rip currents through this evening as beach services
were flying red flags for rip currents this morning. The guidance
continues to reflect a downward trend to moderate risk tonight into
Tuesday, then low mid week. /10

.Hydrology...Eight rivers continue to remain in flood. Please see
weather.gov/mob for the latest statements and warnings. /10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

General VFR conditions expected through the forecast. Isolated
rain showers and thunderstorms will bring local drops in
conditions to MVFR levels this afternoon. Another round of
precipitation will drop general VFR conditions to MVFR levels
Tuesday. South to southwesterly winds 5 to 10 knots are expected
through the forecast. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Impacts the middle of the week come from southward propagating
thunderstorm complexes potentially spreading out over the marine
area. These will bring abrupt strong gusty wind shifts, locally
higher waves, seas, and frequent lightning activity. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      77  93  74  92 /   0  40  30  70
Pensacola   79  93  77  91 /  10  30  30  60
Destin      79  90  77  89 /  10  30  20  40
Evergreen   74  90  71  90 /  30  50  20  50
Waynesboro  75  90  72  89 /  30  40  10  70
Camden      73  86  71  87 /  50  50  10  60
Crestview   75  93  73  92 /  10  40  10  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ALZ060-221900-
Covington AL-
134 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COVINGTON COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM CDT...

At 134 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Andalusia, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Andalusia, Opp, River Falls, and Heath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8649 3131 8661 3149 8632 3125 8621
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 237DEG 18KT 3128 8648

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
206 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ALZ056-057-221945-
Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
206 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN BUTLER AND CENTRAL
CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM CDT...

At 206 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of I65 And US 84, or 8 miles northwest of Evergreen,
moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Georgiana and McKenzie.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3141 8707 3155 8716 3157 8716 3186 8664
      3164 8650 3158 8650
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 241DEG 29KT 3153 8704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ALZ058-060-222000-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
208 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND
NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 207 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Dozier, or 9 miles north of Opp, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Crenshaw and northeastern Covington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8616 3153 8616 3153 8620 3133 8620
      3130 8627 3146 8637 3158 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 235DEG 23KT 3141 8627

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
208 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

ALZ058-060-222000-
Covington AL-Crenshaw AL-
208 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN CRENSHAW AND
NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 300 PM CDT...

At 208 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Dozier, or 9 miles north of Opp, moving northeast
at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Crenshaw and northeastern Covington Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3154 8616 3153 8616 3153 8620 3133 8620
      3130 8627 3146 8637 3158 8615 3154 8614
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 235DEG 23KT 3141 8627

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH