Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
654 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

 - Showers and thunderstorms will move through the area this
   morning, with pockets of heavy rain and gusty winds possible.

 - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are anticipated this
   afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon. A few may become
   strong and produce gusty winds.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The previously mentioned line of storms has all but fizzled out
over the local area, leaving areas of light to moderate rain. This
activity will continue to move to the east-southeast, reaching
our coastal FL counties within the next couple of hours. This
activity will taper off fairly quickly, with a dry period
anticipated beginning during the late morning hours. We could see
some additional development this afternoon; however, hires
guidance is backing off on the coverage, likely due to the
widespread cloud cover we anticipate through the day. Updates were
made to the PoP and weather grids to account for the latest
trends; otherwise, everything seems on track. /73

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A line of thunderstorms located along the Natchez Trace at
03am/08z continues to move southeast over Mississippi towards the
forecast area along the northern edge over a band of good
instability over Mississippi. Bowing segments and transient mesoes
have been in evidence. Several observations have reported winds
gusting to 35-40kts. Conditions continued to be monitored for any
watch/warnings associated with this line.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An interesting pattern has come to fruition, with a pair of MCS's
affecting the forecast area overnight into Saturday morning.
Convection associated with the first MCS has been weakening while
progressing across interior southeast Mississippi and interior
southwest Alabama. This convection has formed an outflow boundary
extending from near New Augusta, MS to Greenville, AL, and this
boundary is progressing slowly southward with the weakening
convection. Convection with the second MCS is anticipated to
manifest as a line of storms which advances into southeast
Mississippi late tonight, with the outflow boundary helping to
steer this convection across extreme southwestern Alabama and part
of the western Florida panhandle through Saturday morning before
continuing into the coastal waters. MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg
are anticipated to be in place as convection associated with the
second MCS moves through with 0-6 km bulk shear values near 55
knots. 0-1 km helicity values look to be 50-100 m2/s2, so am
anticipating that the main threat from these storms will be strong
wind gusts, with a few storms possibly producing wind gusts to 60
mph. SPC currently has southeast Mississippi and southwest
Alabama (to the Alabama River) in a Marginal Risk of severe storms
for the rest of tonight.

A surface low passing well off to the north is expected to bring
a weak cold front into central Mississippi/Alabama Saturday
afternoon. While a series of shortwaves move across the area with
the frontal boundary in the proximity, it's not clear how much of
a lingering effect the second MCS will have on the ability for
convection to develop in the afternoon. Per coordination, have
gone with likely pops for Saturday afternoon for most of the area
for now. The weak frontal boundary is anticipated to drift to near
the coast Saturday night then meanders over the coastal counties
on Sunday before dissipating. Have gone with chance pops for
Sunday with the weak boundary and a series of shortwaves
continuing to move across the area. A surface low develops over
the Plains meanwhile then lifts well off to the north through
Tuesday and brings a cold front to near northern
Mississippi/Alabama. Monday will be mostly dry due an upper ridge
briefly building over the region, then slight chance to chance
pops follow for Tuesday mainly over interior areas.

Another surface low tracks from the south central states to the
northeast states and pushes the cold front through the forecast
area late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. Have gone with
slight chance to chance pops for Wednesday through Thursday, with
chance pops following for Friday as the frontal boundary appears
to return northward through the area as a warm front. As noted by
the previous shift, will need to monitor for the potential for
strong storm development from Tuesday onward based on CIPS analog
guidance. A low risk of rip currents is expected for Saturday
through Wednesday. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Showers, with embedded thunderstorms will continue to move to the
east-southeast this morning. This activity, currently impacting
KMOB and KBFM will overspread KJKA and KPNS between 13Z and 14Z.
Aside from a few embedded lightning strikes, minimal impacts are
expected from these showers. Low cigs will also prevail across
much of the area through the mid morning hours, before lifting to
VFR after 16Z. Confidence decreases as we head into the
afternoon, with the potential for redeveloping thunderstorms.
Widespread showers/storms are not anticipated, but some scattered
activity is possible. Low cigs will move back into the this
evening, with MVFR conditions expected overnight. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will prevail through
the weekend and into the middle of next week. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      82  65  85  66 /  80  20  40  20
Pensacola   80  67  83  67 /  70  30  30  20
Destin      78  68  81  68 /  60  40  30  20
Evergreen   84  61  85  61 /  80  40  30  20
Waynesboro  83  62  83  63 /  80  30  50  20
Camden      81  61  82  61 /  90  40  30  20
Crestview   84  62  88  61 /  70  40  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
454 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-075-076-079-251045-
Clarke AL-Choctaw AL-Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
George MS-
454 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN CHOCTAW...WESTERN
WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN CLARKE...GEORGE...SOUTHERN PERRY...EASTERN
WAYNE AND GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 454 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles southeast of Crandall to 9 miles east
of Brooklyn. Movement was east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Waynesboro, Lucedale, Chatom, Leakesville, Clara, Deer Park, Tibbie,
Beaumont, Millry, McLain, State Line, Buckatunna, Silas, Fruitdale,
Coffeeville, Gilbertown, and Toxey.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8856 3190 8847 3196 8847 3188 8787
      3111 8836 3111 8843 3101 8842 3076 8858
      3089 8889 3091 8889 3091 8895 3098 8912
TIME...MOT...LOC 0954Z 286DEG 25KT 3189 8849 3103 8903

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
458 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MSZ075-078-079-251045-
Stone MS-Perry MS-George MS-
458 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL GEORGE...
SOUTHWESTERN PERRY AND STONE COUNTIES THROUGH 545 AM CDT...

At 458 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 3 miles east of Brooklyn to 5 miles southeast
of Poplarville. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Perkinston, and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8934 3091 8914 3111 8915 3114 8910
      3083 8877 3068 8898 3068 8924 3065 8924
      3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 0958Z 327DEG 17KT 3105 8913 3081 8946

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
737 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

ALZ265-251315-
Mobile Coastal AL-
737 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 815 AM CDT...

At 737 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Alabama Port, or 6 miles east of Bayou La Batre, moving southeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bayou La Batre, Dauphin Island, Fort Morgan, Coden, and Alabama Port.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8817 3041 8827 3050 8809 3027 8787
      3025 8792 3026 8793 3026 8794 3025 8795
      3025 8796 3024 8795 3023 8802 3023 8795
      3022 8796
TIME...MOT...LOC 1237Z 328DEG 15KT 3040 8814

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH