Small Craft Advisory 26, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
620 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

 - A MODERATE risk of rip currents will continue through tonight
   for coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches, becoming a
   HIGH risk Wednesday through the remainder of the week.

 - Periods of showers and storms will affect the area through the
   week with an increasing risk of flooding issues.

 - Moderate to strong winds may create hazardous conditions for
   small craft from Wednesday night through Thursday night.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Showers and thunderstorm are ongoing over most of the area at
sunrise, both on land and over the Gulf. The bulk of the rain is
focusing on a surface front currently north of Highway 84 at this
hour. A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect until the
Thursday evening for our Mississippi Counties. Have also issued a
Rip Current Statement for area beaches, beginning late Wednesday
morning. Everything with the current package is on track, so no
updates planned at this time.
/16

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A cloudy and rainy week lies ahead as our region lies at the base
of a longwave trough extending from the Rockies to the East Coast
into midweek. With the increase in clouds and rain, high temps
will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s today, followed by the
middle 80s through Thursday and the middle to upper 80s the
remainder of the week. Although the trough retreats northward
midweek, an upper low pressure area will move slowly northeastward
along the Texas coast today and Wednesday before lessoning to a
shortwave over the lower Mississippi River on Thursday. It is
possible that a weak surface low pressure area could form near the
southeast Texas coast today. This surface low should dissipate by
Wednesday afternoon and not effect our area. A continuous fetch
of deep moisture will persist through Friday with PWATs mostly
ranging from 2.2 to 2.4 inches.

Flash Flooding Potential...

We issued a Flash Flood Watch for our southeast Mississippi zones
for today through Thursday afternoon as there is increasing
confidence in periods of heavy rain as mid/upper level impulses
and shortwave energy moves through the base of the longwave
through tonight, and then along the eastern periphery of the
shortwave. The entire area remains under a Slight Risk of rainfall
exceeding flash flood guidance today. The Slight Risk remains
across southeast Mississippi on Wednesday with a Marginal Risk
elsewhere, followed by a Slight Risk returning Thursday across
nearly our entire area. The Flash Flood Watch may need to expanded
eastward in future forecast packages based on the latest model
guidance and if forecast confidence increases. Periods of heavy
rainfall are possible at times with widespread total rainfall
amounts inland areas ranging from 3 to 5 inches, with locally
higher totals possibles. Instances of flash flooding will occur
where banding and prolonged training of thunderstorms with high
precipitation rates occur.

Other Potential Impacts...

We will need to monitor for the potential for strong to severe
storms on Thursday as upper-level diffluence spreads across the
Deep South in response to the upper trough to our west. A strong
series of shortwaves also move across the area with an 850 mb
resulting in increasing bulk shear values to around 40 knots. In
addition, MLCAPE values potentially reach as high as 2500J/kg.
looking at the potential coastal flooding due to increasing
southerly winds, P-ETSS guidance shows that water levels could
approach 1.7 ft MHHW around Mobile Bay Wednesday afternoon and
Thursday from late morning into the early evening. Lower values of
near 1-1.5 ft MHHW are expected elsewhere such as Dauphin Island
and along the western Florida panhandle. Will need to monitor
these time periods for potential minor coastal flooding. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A mixed bag of conditions across the forecast area will continue
across the area as an approaching upper level shortwave trough
brings isentropic upglide flow over a stalled surface front over
the area. Add in periods of rain, impacts to operations are to be
expected. Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots are expected south of the
boundary, northwest to north north of the boundary.
/16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 117 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Light to moderate westerly winds become southwesterly tonight then
gradually trend to a moderate to strong southerly flow by
Wednesday night. The onshore flow transitions to a light to
moderate southwesterly flow on Friday. A Small Craft Advisory may
become necessary for much of the marine area from Wednesday night
through Thursday night. /29

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      81  72  86  78 /  90  70  70  60
Pensacola   84  76  87  81 /  90  80  70  40
Destin      86  76  86  80 /  90  80  70  40
Evergreen   78  70  86  75 / 100  70  70  40
Waynesboro  77  70  87  75 / 100  30  60  60
Camden      76  69  85  74 / 100  50  70  40
Crestview   82  71  86  77 /  90  80  80  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk from Wednesday afternoon through late
     Friday night for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

ALZ052-MSZ067-075-076-161300-
Washington AL-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
717 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL WASHINGTON...
NORTHEASTERN PERRY...SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE AND NORTHERN GREENE COUNTIES
THROUGH 800 AM CDT...

At 717 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Richton, moving northeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
State Line, Buckatunna, and Fruitdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3117 8884 3134 8893 3156 8849 3131 8836
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 245DEG 21KT 3129 8881

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
812 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

ALZ265-161400-
Mobile Coastal AL-
812 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN MOBILE COUNTY
THROUGH 900 AM CDT...

At 812 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
capable of producing a waterspout 5 miles south of Coden, or 7 miles
south of Bayou La Batre, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Waterspouts and wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Waterspouts can easily overturn boats and create locally
         hazardous waters. Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs
         and blow around unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Bayou La Batre, Coden, and Alabama Port.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3022 8824 3024 8834 3048 8833 3050 8827
      3046 8802
TIME...MOT...LOC 1312Z 191DEG 8KT 3030 8823

WATERSPOUT...POSSIBLE
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH