Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
101 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

  - There is the potential for a few severe storms with localized
    strong wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday,
    with the best chance occurring this afternoon and tonight.

  - Summertime heat returns over the weekend into early next
    week. Heat advisories possible over portions of the area early
    next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

24.12Z upper air maps show the axis of a mid to high level ridge
centered over northern MX across the lower 4 corners of the Desert
Southwest. The nose of this feature is oriented southeast to the
Gulf. On the northeast periphery of the ridge, resides an active
northwest flow at high levels of which is embedded a couple of
notable convective features. The first and closest to the local
area is sinking southeast over southwest MS and a second, more
potent complex with concentrated lightning activity was dropping
southeast over east OK/western AR. The first feature will likely
see a mesoscale outflow boundary and mid level energy being the
source of focus for additional convective initiation as it sinks
southeast into a warm, moist and unstable environment over the
central Gulf coast. Mesoanalysis on the pre-storm environment from
late AM shows the best instability/deep layer moisture gradients
(SBCAPE's 2000- 4000 J/Kg)(PWAT's: 1.6 to 2.0") oriented from
southern MS, westward across LA. While deep layer shear remains
rather weak at this time, there does appear to be a window for a
slight uptick in 0-3km shear to around 20 to 25 knots. This would
likely be enough to support some multicellular clusters and
potentially a little more robust outflow driven system or cluster
of storms which is supported in the latest convection allowing
models (CAM's) and short range ensembles. Development of and
southeastward moving clusters of storms, a few of which could
become marginally severe with damaging winds being the main
threats is advertised in the near term. The Storm Prediction
Center (SPC) has included the area, generally west of a
Greenville AL to Pensacola FL line, in a Marginal Risk of severe
weather for through tonight. A similar pattern continues into the
day Thursday too.

Due to recent excessive rains, especially in the hardest hit
areas, antecedent soil moisture levels and low flash flood
guidance are such that any heavy rains from storms through tonight
could quickly lead to runoff and flooding issues over problem
lower lying and urbanized areas subject to poor drain off of storm
water. Considering this, a slight risk of flash flooding is
outlooked for much of the area.

By the end of the week, upper ridging will quickly begin to build
over the southeastern US. Large scale compressional sinking will
result in two outcomes: One, a decrease in storm chances and
secondly a rise in temperatures. Heat indices look to climb into
the triple digits area-wide by the weekend with highs heating up
into lower/mid 90's. The latest gridded forecast suggests heat
products may be required for portions of the area the start of
next week as heat indices move into advisory criteria 108-112 then.
/10

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

General VFR conditions will see local drops to low end MVFR as
isolated to scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms develop and move
east over the forecast area this afternoon. After a short respite
this evening, another round of convection is expected to develop
later tonight into Thursday AM, dropping VFR/upper MVFR
conditions to lower end MVFR/IFR. /16

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Mariners are urged to stay weather aware in the near term for
clusters of thunderstorms that spread south and southeast off the
coast. A few of the storms will likely be strong with wind gusts
perhaps in excess of 40 kts, locally higher waves/seas, frequent
lightning and brief visibility reducing heavy rains. Away from
storms, a weak stationary front straddles the coast bringing
variable winds through tonight. The boundary lifts back up to the
north Thursday and dissipates as south to southwest flow becomes
established from high pressure setting up over the southwest
Atlantic into the central Gulf Friday through the weekend. Seas 2
feet or less. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  88  74  90 /  60  70  10  10
Pensacola   75  87  77  90 /  60  70  50  20
Destin      75  86  77  88 /  30  60  50  20
Evergreen   69  85  71  90 /  80  60  30  40
Waynesboro  70  88  72  93 /  70  40  10  10
Camden      69  84  71  89 /  70  40  20  30
Crestview   71  86  72  90 /  40  80  50  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MSZ078-242030-
Stone MS-
238 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT STONE COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM
CDT...

At 238 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Poplarville to near Picayune. Movement was
southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Perkinston and McHenry.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3088 8934 3079 8890 3068 8897 3068 8924
      3065 8924 3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1938Z 302DEG 26KT 3084 8953 3054 8972

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

MSZ075-076-079-242045-
Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
253 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN GEORGE...
SOUTHEASTERN PERRY AND SOUTHERN GREENE COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM CDT...

At 253 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles southwest of McLain, or 19 miles northwest of Lucedale, moving
southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lucedale and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3100 8901 3116 8891 3107 8847 3077 8858
TIME...MOT...LOC 1953Z 295DEG 20KT 3106 8889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH