Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Mobile, AL

165 
WWUS54 KMOB 070306
SVSMOB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1006 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ALC099-070315-
/O.EXP.KMOB.SV.W.0043.000000T0000Z-260507T0315Z/
Monroe AL-
1006 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1015 PM CDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southwestern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3143 8728 3131 8737 3130 8740 3126 8743
      3125 8762 3126 8768 3130 8771 3130 8777
      3136 8775 3133 8775 3134 8772 3137 8773
      3140 8771 3142 8767 3142 8763 3141 8761
      3142 8759
TIME...MOT...LOC 0305Z 266DEG 48KT 3137 8711 

$$

JLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
701 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 700 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

 - There is the potential for strong to severe storms and heavy
   rainfall late this afternoon into Thursday.

 - The risk for strong rip currents increases midweek, with a
   Moderate risk of rip currents anticipated from Wednesday night
   through Saturday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Convective activity is set to increase across interior portions of
the area through tonight as a cold front approaching from the
north moves into the area. Abundant favorable shear and
instability will support severe storm development especially
across interior southeast Mississippi and interior southwestern
Alabama, with the risk of severe storms decreasing into the
overnight hours. Will also need to monitor for locally heavy
rainfall and potential flooding issues mainly over interior areas.
The current forecast looks on track. /29

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Through Saturday, a series of upper level shortwaves pass over/near
the Southeast, having shifted an upper level high over the Gulf
further south. This allows the energy to more directly affect the
northern Gulf coast. The first round passes over the forecast area
later today through tonight. A combination of Mixed Layer Capes
around 2000j/kg developing this afternoon, EBWD shear around 60 kts,
DCape of 700-900J/kg, and mid level lapse rates around 7C all lead
to strong to severe storms, with the full house of threats, damaging
winds, large hail and tornadoes. 0-1km helicities around 150m^2/s^2
this afternoon rise to around 250m^2/s^2 tonight as a cold front
works it way south over the Lower Mississippi River Valley and
Southeast, enhancing the probability of supercells. Add in guidance
advertising good upper divergence as a weaker upper jet just north
of the northern Gulf coast works with a stronger one on the front
side of a deeper upper trough passing slowly east over the northern
part of the Southeast, and SPC has put an Enhanced Risk of severe
storms over our northwestern counties and a Slight Risk as far south
as a Stone Co to Covington Co line. Timing has individual cells
developing this afternoon over Mississippi, increasing in coverage
through the afternoon as they shift south ahead of an advancing cold
front. Model soundings show a good cap around 10k' over southeast
Mississippi helping to limit any taller storms near the forecast
area, but the expectation is for this cap to disappear as the mid
level shortwaves and upper divergence increases. As instability
decreases after sunrise, am expecting the the possiblity of strong
storms to decrease through the night. As mentioned above, the full
gamut of storm modes is expected, but not to be left out is possible
water issues. With a soupy airmass (precipitable h20 levels in the
1.9"-2.2" range), these storms once they get going, are expected to
be efficient rainers, with training cells expected, accumulation
could locally top 3"-5" the next 12 hours or so, especially over our
northern counties. Helping to temper the water issues is the current
drought conditions, along with enough greenery to break soils up and
allow the water to soak up the water. Still, will need to keep an
eye on this also this afternoon through tonight.

Thursday, the approaching cold front is expected to sag south across
the forecast area in the morning, reaching the coast in the
early/mid afternoon. Ahead of this front, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop. Strong to marginally severe storms are
possible, especially in the morning. Isentropic upglide convection
along and just north of the front will bring more widespread rain to
the forecast area. Other than the possiblity of rowdy storms, am not
expecting water issues.

More shortwave energy passes over the forecast area Friday through
Saturday, bringing more rounds of precipitation, with elevated
rumblers mixed in at times. At this point, will need to increase
monitoring of water issues, with accumulations from the previous day
adding onto the rainfall amounts. If some areas do not get rid of
the water that has fallen, there will be. Our flashier smaller
rivers may have issues, along with the more urbanized areas.

Not to forget, with all the rain, near seasonal temperatures today
will drop below into Friday. Some sun making to the ground along
with a return of better southerly flow as a stronger shortwave
approaches the forecast area.

For Saturday night on, have had little time to digest. More energy
passes over the Southeast, with a cold front ushering in drier air
early in the coming week. A reprieve in the rain is expected Tuesday.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, southerly
flow over the northern Gulf will continue to bring increased swell
to area beaches. Combined with a large tidal range, the next few
days a high end Moderate Risk, at times High, is expected through
the rest of the week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MVFR ceilings will prevail through the evening before dropping to
IFR by late evening. Ceilings will improve from northwest to
southeast by mid morning to MVFR. Thunderstorms will move in from
the northwest along a cold front early to mid morning and move to
the southeast. These storms can cause drops in ceiling and
visibilities down to IFR/LIFR flight categories. Occasionally
gusty winds will shift from southerly tonight at 8-12 knots to
north-northwest at 8-10 knots by mid morning. /97

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Light onshore flow increases to a light to moderate flow
tonight into Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. A light to
moderate offshore flow develops behind the front, but quickly shifts
to onshore temporarily over the weekend before a passing system
brings back light to moderate offshore flow Sunday.
/16

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Daily rainfall, both over and north of the forecast area, is
expected to cause rises in rivers.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  81  63  76 /  50  80  10  60
Pensacola   73  82  66  77 /  30  70  10  40
Destin      72  81  66  78 /  30  70  10  30
Evergreen   68  80  57  75 /  80  80   0  40
Waynesboro  66  77  57  73 /  90  50   0  40
Camden      67  76  56  73 / 100  70   0  30
Crestview   71  84  60  78 /  40  90  10  40

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
633 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

ALZ054-070000-
Wilcox AL-
633 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL WILCOX COUNTY THROUGH
700 PM CDT...

At 632 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Dannelly Reservoir, or 9 miles north of Camden, moving
east at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of central Wilcox
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3220 8736 3220 8733 3218 8732 3216 8729
      3214 8728 3215 8727 3214 8725 3212 8726
      3212 8725 3210 8723 3208 8719 3207 8719
      3206 8718 3205 8718 3201 8738 3218 8745
      3221 8737
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 250DEG 33KT 3212 8734

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JLH