Severe Thunderstorm Warning 127, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

- Abnormally hot conditions continue with another Heat Advisory in
  effect for all locations Thursday as afternoon heat indices
  rise into the 108 to 112 range. Additional heat advisories will
  likely be needed through the rest of the week.

- Scattered afternoon thunderstorms will continue to be capable of
  producing brief heavy rainfall and locally strong to damaging
  wind gusts.

- There is a Moderate risk of rip currents for area beaches in
  Florida through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

We issued the next Heat Advisory for our entire forecast area for
Thursday as high temperatures again will be in the middle to upper
90s, and when combined with surface dewpoints ranging from 73 to
77 degrees, maximum apparent temperatures (heat indices) should
range from 105-110 degrees. The same is expected for Friday, so
expected more Heat Advisories to come.

For the past couple of days we have seen convection develop inland
each afternoon and move southward, with many producing damaging
thunderstorm wind gusts. We expect the same for this afternoon,
and Thursday and Friday afternoons as we remain along the eastern
periphery of an upper ridge to our west with an upper trough
digging southward over the eastern CONUS. As daytime heating leads
to decreasing stability each afternoon, the environment will be
supportive of a few strong to marginal severe storms capable of
gusty surface winds, small hail, and frequent lightning as SBCAPE
values escalate to around 3,000 to 4,000j/kg. As a result, the
Storm Prediction Center has a Marginal Risk of severe weather
outlooked for our area today and Thursday. Friday is a wait and
see situation.

With the base of the upper trough reaching it's southernmost
extent (into the northeastern Gulf) by the weekend, this will
place our region in a deep northerly flow pattern, advecting in a
drier air mass with PWATs dipping below 1.5 inches. There is also
the potential for a surface boundary to enter our forecast area
over the weekend. While this won't have much affect on the ambient
temperatures, it should be enough to lower surface dewpoints and
heat indices to where advisories will not be needed. In addition,
there is a much lower chance of storms, so it is shaping up to be
a nice weekend.

The rip current risk gradually tapers as we head through the rest
of the week, with a moderate risk for the Florida Panhandle
becoming a low risk by Friday. A low risk will remain for the
Alabama coastline through the end of the week. /22

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through Thursday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop after 19z and move southward into early
evening before dissipating. MVFR ceilings and periods of LIFR/IFR
visibilites are expected with the stronger storms, along with
frequent lightning and heavy rain. Impact to operations may occur.
southwesterly wind 5 to 10 knots during the day will become light
overnight. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

A light to occasionally moderate mostly westerly flow pattern
persists into next week. Winds are expected to shift northwesterly
late each night and then southwesterly in the afternoon. Isolated
to potentially scattered showers and storms can be expected each
morning with locally higher seas and winds near storms. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  95  75  95 /  10  30  10  40
Pensacola   79  94  78  93 /  10  30  20  40
Destin      80  93  79  92 /  10  40  10  30
Evergreen   73  98  72  97 /  20  40  30  60
Waynesboro  74  99  73  98 /  20  30  20  50
Camden      74  97  73  95 /  10  30  30  50
Crestview   74  96  73  96 /  10  40  20  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ051>060-
     261>266.

FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for FLZ201>206.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for FLZ201>206.

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ067-075-076-078-
     079.

     Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ067-075-076-
     078-079.

GM...None.
&&