Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be
  possible each afternoon through early next week.

- Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are expected into
  early next week.

- A Moderate risk of rip currents may develop at area beaches
  on Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

An upper high off the East Coast builds/shifts west over the
northeastern Gulf coast into the coming week, shifting a weak
embedded upper trough over the Southeast west of the region. A
weakly organized surface ridge over the Southeast meanders around
over the region, eventually shifting south to over the Northern
Gulf/northern Gulf Coast by Monday night. Alternating bands of drier
and moister air moving over the forecast area into Saturday night
will help to limit PoPs, with isolated to scattered rainshowers and
thunderstorms. By Sunday, moisture levels over the forecast area
rise into the 2.0"-2.2" range, helping to overcome increased upper
subsidence over the forecast area. The result is scattered to
numerous rainshowers and thunderstorms expected Sunday and Monday.
Looking at soundings each day, the upper subsidence will help to
delay convection to late morning into the afternoon over land areas.
With MLCapes rising to around 2500J/kg, strong storms are possible.
When combined with DCapes in the 700-1000J/kg range, pulse type
severe storms remain a possibility.

Temperature around to a bit above seasonal norms are expected into
the coming week. High temperatures in the low to mid 90s, upper 80s
along the coast. Low temperatures in the low to mid 70s, upper 70s
along the coast are expected. Heat Indices in the 100 to 107 degree
range are expected.

Tuesday through Friday...a stream of shortwave energy passing along
the north side of the upper ridge will help to flatten it, allowing
shortwave energy to pass closer to the forecast area. Guidance is
inconsistent with this respect. Current forecast is based upon a
blend of the ensemble guidance, with isolated to scattered
rainshowers and thunderstorms expected. PoPs do decrease through the
extended as moisture levels decrease. Temperatures rise back to
above seasonal norms, with daytime heat indices topping out in the
100-107 degree range over most of the forecast area.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, a general Low
Risk is expected, with the onshore flow less organized. An uptick to
a Moderate is indicated Saturday, with the onshore flow a bit better
organized combined with an increasing tidal cycle.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 140 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, outside
of any thunderstorms. Isolated thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the afternoon before diminishing early this
evening. Expect brief reductions in visibility and ceilings, along
with gusty and erratic winds, near any thunderstorms. Winds around
10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts will continue at the terminals through
late afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight. 07/mb

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A weakly organized surface ridge over/near the northern Gulf
coast will create a light to at times moderate mostly onshore flow
through the forecast. Near coastal areas will see a switch to
offshore flow overnight into the morning hours at times as a land
breeze sets up with the night cooling.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      91  73  92  73 /  30   0  20  20
Pensacola   90  75  93  77 /  40   0  20  10
Destin      89  77  91  78 /  20   0  20  20
Evergreen   92  72  93  73 /  10  10  30  20
Waynesboro  94  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  20
Camden      91  73  91  73 /  20   0  20  10
Crestview   93  72  93  73 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MSZ078-072030-
Stone MS-
258 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN STONE COUNTY
THROUGH 330 PM CDT...

At 257 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles west of Saucier, or 16 miles southwest of Wiggins, moving west
at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Stone
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3075 8934 3071 8917 3068 8918 3068 8924
      3065 8924 3065 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 097DEG 15KT 3066 8928

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
329 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ALZ055>057-072115-
Monroe AL-Conecuh AL-Butler AL-
329 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL BUTLER...
NORTHEASTERN MONROE AND NORTH CENTRAL CONECUH COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM
CDT...

At 328 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southeast of Beatrice, or 13 miles north of Evergreen, moving
northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central
Butler, northeastern Monroe and north central Conecuh Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3169 8674 3149 8701 3161 8719 3183 8707
      3183 8702
TIME...MOT...LOC 2028Z 221DEG 10KT 3161 8704

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MSZ075-078-072115-
Stone MS-Perry MS-
335 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN PERRY AND NORTHEASTERN
STONE COUNTIES THROUGH 415 PM CDT...

At 335 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles southwest of McLain, or 12 miles northeast of Wiggins, moving
west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southern Perry and
northeastern Stone Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8914 3115 8914 3104 8888 3089 8892
      3090 8916 3091 8916
TIME...MOT...LOC 2035Z 105DEG 8KT 3098 8897

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
414 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

MSZ075-072145-
Perry MS-
414 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN PERRY COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM CDT...

At 413 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Brooklyn, or 12 miles north of Wiggins, moving west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Perry
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3116 8914 3111 8901 3091 8907 3091 8914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2113Z 103DEG 7KT 3104 8913

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
505 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

ALZ262-072245-
Baldwin Inland AL-
505 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BALDWIN COUNTY
THROUGH 545 PM CDT...

At 505 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Stockton, or 11 miles north of Bay Minette. This
storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bay Minette, Stockton, and I65 And AL 225.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3085 8784 3095 8790 3094 8788 3095 8787
      3097 8789 3099 8787 3099 8789 3100 8790
      3102 8789 3102 8790 3108 8790 3116 8772
      3111 8764 3103 8761 3100 8762 3087 8773
TIME...MOT...LOC 2205Z 056DEG 3KT 3105 8774

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KLG