River Flood Warning 41, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

 - A MODERATE RISK of rip currents continues through midweek for
   Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

 - Elevated rain chances remain in place through Thursday,
   particularly over interior counties.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

The forecast remains on track as scattered showers and storms
developing along the coast will increase in coverage and spread
inland throughout the day. Coverage is expected to decrease in
coverage along the coast by early afternoon. Isolated rainfall
amounts up to 3 inches are expected inland today, which could lead
to localized flooding. With mostly cloudy skies and increasing
rain chances, high temperatures should only range from 85 to 90
degrees. /22

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 103 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Currently, radar and satellite indicates that a remnant outflow
boundary remains stalled over our Gulf waters, extending westward
into southern Louisiana. Over the course of the day today, this
outflow is expected to slowly lift northeastward as high pressure
builds over Florida and helps to strengthen our low-level
southwesterly flow. As this boundary lifts northeastward, it will
help to serve as a low-level focus for scattered to numerous
showers and storms to develop along. Latest CAMs suggest that
convection should start to fire around, or a little after,
daybreak across our coastal counties this morning. By the
afternoon, the best convective coverage is expected to be focused
over interior counties, with rain chances decreasing along the
coast. Not anticipating any severe weather with this activity due
to weak shear, although gusty downburst winds cannot be ruled out
in storms that manage to cluster together. Additionally, the
scattered nature of these storms, as well as faster storm motions,
should help to limit flash flood potential. That being said, with
how saturated the area is, 1hr Flash Flood Guidance generally
sits at around 1.5-2.5 inches across much of the area and 3hr FFG
is around 2.5-3.5 inches. And with PWATs still around 2 inches,
storms could still be efficient rainfall producers. The 3 hr QPF
ensemble max from the HREF does have a few isolated pockets of
around 2-5 inches across the area. Therefore, cannot rule out some
localized flooding concerns as we go through the day today.

The synoptic pattern becomes rather persistent for most of the
upcoming workweek. A generally light westerly to northwesterly
upper-level flow pattern will be in place through Thursday as our
local area remains sandwiched between an upper ridge over the
Gulf and upper troughing over the Great Lakes. The problem with
this type of flow pattern this time of year is that embedded
shortwaves will try to move into the area from the northwest,
which could allow for upstream complexes/MCS's to push into the
local area. We are starting to see this possibility on some of the
latest 00z CAMs, where they try to push an MCS into the area
Monday afternoon/early evening. Although guidance tends to
struggle with these types of complexes (i.e. strength and timing),
the general consensus is that storms should be weakening upon
arrival. Although the environment will be very unstable (CAPE
values possibly exceeding 3000 J/kg in spots), shear values will
likely remain around 20 knots or less, suggesting that the complex
should be outflow-dominant by time it arrives. And with subsident
effects from the nearby ridge along with steady (or even possibly
rising) heights, am not anticipating much in the way of storm
redevelopment/MCS maintenance. All that being said, if the complex
does manage to make it into our northwestern counties, storms (or
even just the outflow itself) may be capable of producing gusty
winds to around 40-60 mph. Additional MCS potentials may be
possible through Thursday as the overall westerly/northwesterly
upper-level pattern remains prevalent. Rain chances remain rather
elevated for midweek as more potent shortwaves attempt to push in.

By Friday, the ridge is expected to build northward into the area.
This will help to lower rain chances for Friday and into the
upcoming weekend.

Highs through the period will generally be in the upper 80s to low
90s. We should remain just below Heat Advisory criteria through
the period, although most areas may see heat indices rise to
around 100- 105. Lows will be in the 70s. A Moderate Risk of rip
currents will continue through midweek, finally dropping to a Low
Risk by late week. /96

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 650 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Patchy fog north of Highway-84, with occasional visibilites
dipping to LIFR levels, will dissipate by mid morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms developing along the coast will increase
in coverage and spread inland throughout the day, while coverage
decreasing along the coast by early afternoon. Expect brief
reductions in visibility in some of the heavier activity. Light
and variable winds will become southwesterly 5-10 knots inland and
around 10-15 knots gusting to near 20 knots closer to the coast.
/22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

A surface ridge extending from the western Atlantic into the
eastern Gulf will expand westward through Tuesday. A light to
occasionally moderate southwesterly flow will shift to a light
westerly flow Tuesday into Thursday. Seas 2 to 3 feet will subside
to 2 feet Monday night through Thursday. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      88  76  91  76 /  60  10  10  10
Pensacola   88  79  91  79 /  60  10  10  10
Destin      87  79  89  80 /  70  10  30  10
Evergreen   87  75  92  74 /  80  20  20  30
Waynesboro  88  75  93  74 /  70  10  30  20
Camden      86  74  91  73 /  80  20  30  30
Crestview   88  75  93  75 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&