Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
634 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

 - Moderate to extreme drought will exacerbate wildfire activity.

 - Strong marine winds over the Gulf will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft will persist through mid-
   afternoon.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Now through Sunday...

Through Wednesday, a deep upper level trough over the eastern
Conus moves off as a ridge that has built north over the Rockies
shifts east to over the Mississippi River by Wednesday night.
Guidance is advertising several shortwave impulses passing over
the Southeast through the period, but with moisture return slow as
a surface ridge organizes over the Southeast, am not expecting
more more than an increase in mid/upper level clouds. With
temperatures rising into mid week, but not moisture levels, low
relative humidity levels will be an issue with fire weather
concerns. More on that below. Back to temperatures, high
temperatures in the upper 70s to near 85 return to the forecast
area Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures see an uptick into
the mid 50s to around 60 for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

The upper ridge over the Mississippi River continues to shift east
the latter half of the week through the weekend, allowing
shortwave energy to pass closer and closer to the Southeast.
Ultimately, a weak surface front pushes south over the Southeast
in the coming weekend in response. Combined with onshore flow
bringing increased Gulf moisture inland, precipitation returns in
the coming weekend. Highest PoPs are expected to be closer to the
front, read over the northern half of the forecast area.
Subsidence from the upper ridge will help to keep temperatures
above seasonal norms.

Offshore flow lasts into Tuesday, keeping the Rip Risk low into
the coming week. The return of onshore flow mid week will bring
back increased swell to area beaches and a rise in the Rip Current
risk to Moderate to High the latter half of the week. /16

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through tonight with only
scattered to broken cirrus clouds passing overhead. North-
northeasterly winds 3 to 8 knots early this morning will shift to
northeasterly around 10 knots with occasional gusts to near 20
knots. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Moderate to strong northeasterly flow this morning will diminish
while shifting easterly through Tuesday. Small Craft Should
Exercise Caution this morning across Mobile bay and the
Mississippi Sound. A light to moderate southeasterly to southerly
flow follows Tuesday night through Friday. /22

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Looking at fire weather concerns over the forecast area. With
drought conditions, and dry fuels, a Moderate Risk of a
Significant Fire Potential is in effect for Monday and Tuesday.
Also, a Fire Alert has been issued for Alabama. Most of the
ingredients for a Red Flag Watch/Warning are present, but not all.
Will let day shift continue with coordination with relevant fire
weather folks on any WWAs needed. /16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      80  52  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
Pensacola   78  59  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
Destin      77  59  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
Evergreen   79  47  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Waynesboro  78  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Camden      78  49  82  56 /   0   0   0   0
Crestview   80  48  84  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ650-
     655-670-675.

&&