Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Mobile, AL

110 
WGUS54 KMOB 190040
FFWMOB
ALC003-053-FLC033-113-190215-
/O.EXT.KMOB.FF.W.0022.000000T0000Z-260619T0215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Mobile AL
740 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The National Weather Service in Mobile has extended the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Eastern Escambia County in south central Alabama...
  Central Baldwin County in southwestern Alabama...
  Northwestern Escambia County in northwestern Florida...
  Northwestern Santa Rosa County in northwestern Florida...

* Until 915 PM CDT.

* At 740 PM CDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
  heavy rain across the warned area. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain
  have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are
  possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or expected
  to begin shortly.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban areas,
           highways, streets and underpasses as well as other poor
           drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Daphne, Fairhope, Brewton, Spanish Fort, Robertsdale, Century,
  Flomaton, Loxley, Stapleton, East Brewton, Silverhill, Jay,
  Pollard, Riverview, Bratt, McDavid, Chumuckla Springs, Bluff
  Springs, Byrneville and Pine Barren.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the
dangers of flooding.

Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3071 8795 3072 8795 3126 8696 3126 8688
      3107 8670 3105 8670 3044 8791

FLASH FLOOD...RADAR INDICATED

$$

JLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

 - A Particularly Dangerous and Life Threatening Flash Flood
   Situation exists across the area today with a High Risk for
   Flooding across portions of southeast Mississippi, southern
   Alabama, and the far western Florida Panhandle. Considerable
   Flash Flooding is likely and Catastrophic Flash Flooding is
   possible today.

 - Numerous marine hazards exist across the area. There remains a
   HIGH RISK of rip currents through Saturday for Alabama and
   northwest Florida beaches. Minor coastal flooding is occurring
   around Mobile Bay today. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect
   today through Friday. Strong winds will create hazardous
   conditions for small craft from through this evening.

 - There is a Slight Risk for Severe Storms today with a risk of a
   few tornadoes across much of the area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING EVENT UNFOLDING...

The remnants of Post Tropical Storm Arthur is currently creating
hazardous impacts to the local area. This system is slowly moving
through the area today creating a life-threatening flooding event. A
Flood Watch is in effect through Friday afternoon for precipitation
totals of 6-12 inches of rainfall and localized areas up to 15
inches from this event. WPC has the southern half of our CWA in a
HIGH risk for excessive rainfall which is rare and not to be taken
lightly. The rest of the area is in a MODERATE risk for excessive
rainfall. A trailing cold front will move into the northern portion
of the forecast area on Friday which shifts near the coast on
Saturday. This will bring additional rainfall to already hard hit
areas from today.

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING...

The rainy pattern continues with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall
forecasted through the end of the week into the weekend with our
main impacts today into Friday with the remnants of Post Tropical
Storm Arthur. After most of the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur
departs, we are left with lingering tropical moisture and a cold
front draped across the area leading to more precipitation Friday
and into the weekend. We are under risks for excessive rainfall from
the WPC for the next 3 days. Today, the area is split with a HIGH
risk in the southern half and a MODERATE risk for the northern half.
Our day 2 risk is a MODERATE and day 3 risk is SLIGHT for
essentially all of the CWA.

There is significant deep layer moisture with the entire atmospheric
column close to fully saturated based on 12Z RAOBs in the Southeast.
Our PWATs have been very high in the 2.3-2.5 inch range and will
continue to be at and above the daily max for climatology through
most of Friday. Ensembles show this deep moisture plume of 2+ inch
PWATs persisting through Saturday evening. The warm mid-level
temperatures with a freezing level of 14,000+ feet will support
efficient warm rain processes. This environment supports rainfall
with rates topping out at 2-3 inches/hour. This along with the an
enhanced LLJ of 40+ knots oriented correctly will support training
precipitation through today. CAMs indicate an east-west oriented
backbuilding line of storms trailing the MCS will move due east
creating a corridor of enhanced precipitation totals where this sets
up. As of now this looks to set up along or just north of the I-10
corridor.

The heaviest precipitation has began in our area early this morning
in our Mississippi counties and spread east into southern Alabama.
For what its worth, multiple deterministic CAMs show swaths of 10-16
inches across the southern portion of the area. HREF and REFS LPMMs
for 6 hours shows 4-7 inch swaths for this afternoon through
midnight, and 24 hour LPMMs through Thursday night of 7-14+ inches
through parts of our Mississippi counties and into southern Alabama.
While these tend to be somewhat overdone, it indicates the
increasing potential for flash flooding issues. Our FFG is still
quite low given previous days of rainfall and antecedent soil
conditions being very saturated. 1 hour FFG is around 2.25-2.75
inches and 3 hour FFG is not much better at 2.75-3.5 inches for most
locations. Given the rainfall rates and training convection flooding
will commence within just a couple hours of moderate precipitation.

Rainfall totals of 6-12 inches with localized areas exceeding 15
inches for the event. Even with most of the rain falling on
Thursday, the risk for flooding is still high on Friday after the
very heavy rainfall from today. We currently have a lot rivers in or
projected to go into minor flood with a few projected to go into
moderate/major flood stage in the coming days.

...SEVERE THREAT...

MLCAPE values increase as high as 2500-3000 J/kg over the area
today. Shear values have trended higher as the remnants of Arthur
approach and move into the area. CAMs indicate that the current line
of convection will move east-northeast with backbuilding taking on
more of a east-west oriented line of storms. SPC has a slight risk
for most of the area today. A marginal risk of severe storms also
exists on Friday for the entire area, mainly for the afternoon and
evening hours as the weak front drops into the area with a wind risk
if convection organizes along the boundary.

...COASTAL FLOODING...

Minor coastal flooding becomes a concern today where high tide
combines with persistent increasing onshore flow. P-ETSS guidance at
Mobile State Docks shows a peak of 2.0 feet MHHW this afternoon. We
already have some observations from ALDOT cameras showing splashover
on the Mobile Causeway near I-10. Values elsewhere approach, but
stay below the 2.0 feet MHHW threshold so some minor inundation
could occur for typical trouble spots like Dauphin Island and Fort
Pickens. We opted to issue a Coastal Flood Advisory for
southern/central Mobile County and Baldwin County for that began
late this morning and lasts through the evening.

...SATURDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK...

The broad trough pattern in place across the eastern half of the
CONUS takes on more of a meridional orientation before moving
offshore this weekend. High rain chances continue through Saturday
as the boundary lingers over the area. The frontal boundary becomes
diffuse or will lift north Saturday night as southerly flow is
established over the area. Slight chance to chance pops follow for
Sunday, then dry conditions are anticipated on Monday then slight
chance to chance pops return for Tuesday. We will keep an eye on
potential a heat risk for the beginning of next week, but as of now
it looks to stay below criteria.

...BEACH FORECAST...

Hazardous and life-threatening beach conditions continue with all
area beaches flying double red flags today. The rip current risk
is now a HIGH for all Florida and Alabama beaches through Saturday
afternoon. NWPS shows breakers of 5-8 feet and a High Surf
Advisory was issued through Friday evening for the entire Gulf
coastline in our area.

SS/97

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms are spreading northeastward
across southeast LA and coastal MS and will move into interior
southeast MS and interior southwest AL throughout the morning.
Numerous to occasional widespread light to moderate showers with
isolated embedded storms will affect the remainder of the area.
This convection will spread inland away from the coast and TAF
sites through mid afternoon before spreading back toward the coast
late this afternoon and evening. LIFR visibilites with perhaps
instances of VLIFR visibilities look to be likely where the
heaviest rain bands set up. Ceilings will be variable, hovering
between MVFR/to IFR categories. Additional hazards to
approaches/departures are southerly winds gusty at times
potentially to 25 to 30 kts. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A moderate to strong southerly to southwesterly flow will persist
through tonight with seas ramping up to 7 to 9 feet today. A Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect for most of the marine area until 6
am Friday. The onshore flow gradually diminishes to a light to
moderate southwesterly flow on Friday, with a primarily light
southwesterly flow expected this weekend. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      84  77  90  75 / 100  80  60  70
Pensacola   85  80  90  78 / 100  80  60  50
Destin      85  80  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
Evergreen   80  74  87  73 / 100 100  90  60
Waynesboro  81  75  88  73 / 100  80  90  60
Camden      79  72  84  71 / 100  90 100  50
Crestview   82  76  89  74 / 100  90  70  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for ALZ051>060-261>266.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for ALZ265-266.

FL...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday afternoon for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CDT Friday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for MSZ067-075-076-078-079.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ630>632-634-
     650-655-670-675.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
221 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     Coastal Flood    1 E West End Dauphin Is 30.25N 88.18W
06/18/2026                   Mobile             AL   Local Official

            DILA1 gauge on the bayside of the island
            shows 1.42 feet MHHW. This inundation in
            combination with high surf is causing water
            over the roadway at the west end of Dauphin
            Island.

&&

SS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
223 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     Rip Currents     Fort Morgan             30.23N 87.90W
06/17/2026                   Baldwin            AL   Emergency Mngr

            *** 1 FATAL ***
            A father drowned in a rip current after
            saving his son.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
225 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 PM     Flash Flood      2 WSW Whites Crossing   30.84N 89.07W
06/18/2026                   Stone              MS   Dept of Highways

            Standing water on roadways.

0100 PM     Flash Flood      6 SSW Bexley            30.88N 88.70W
06/18/2026                   George             MS   Emergency Mngr

            Roads submerged and pond dam breached.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
254 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Flash Flood      2 ESE Bexley            30.95N 88.65W
06/18/2026                   George             MS   Broadcast Media

            Broadcast media shows a picture of water
            rushing downhill over MS 198 and reports
            that the road is closed.

&&

SS

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
315 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 AM     Tstm Wnd Dmg     3 WSW Benndale          30.85N 88.86W
06/18/2026                   George             MS   Broadcast Media

            WLOX viewer reported trees down near Bendale
            near the Stone County border. Time and
            location estimated.

1259 PM     Flash Flood      4 WSW Benndale          30.84N 88.87W
06/18/2026                   George             MS   Broadcast Media

            WLOX viewer reported water covering John
            Fortner Road.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Mobile AL
321 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0202 PM     Coastal Flood    2 NE Hollingers Island  30.57N 88.09W
06/18/2026                   Mobile             AL   Dept of Highways

            Report from ALDOT that flooding on AL 163
            (Dauphin Island Parkway) is closed in both
            directions at the Dog River Bridge. BYSA1
            gauge is 2.03 feet MHHW at the time of
            closure.

&&

SS