Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
218 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

 - Flooding and Severe Potential: Storms may produce heavy
   rainfall and/or strong to marginally severe storms across
   south-central Alabama and northwest Florida today and tomorrow.
   Damaging winds and additional flooding is possible.

 - Heat Risk Concerns: Heat indices of 100-105 across much of the
   area through at least Tuesday.

 - HIGH risk of rip currents Wednesday through the end of the work
   week for the coastal Alabama and northwest Florida beaches.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

An upper ridge builds north over the Plains through Monday before a
deep upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Eastern
Seaboard, shifting the ridge west and less influential to the
forecast area mid week. A cold front moves south over the forecast
Tuesday in response, reaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night,
then moving south over the Gulf Tuesday night. With the path and
speed of the upper trough inconsistent in the guidance, how far
south the front moves and where the coldest air pushes south is
inconsistent in the guidance. What has been consistent is the
coldest air pushes south east of the forecast area. Wednesday on,
the upper trough moves off, with the upper ridge shifting over the
Southeast by the end of the week, where it remains through the
coming weekend.

There are a few items to deal with this package. The first is
Monday. Some guidance (about a third to half) is advertising a very
unstable airmass (MLCapes rising into the 3000-3500J/kg range)
developing over the Southeast Monday, with MCS' developing north of
the Southeast, then moving south across the region in the
afternoon/evening. Timing and path remain inconsistent with these
MCS', as with actual forming. As of this point, will have to keep an
eye on things, especially if more consistency in the guidance leads
SPC to alter the current Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly for
wind) over the northern half of the forecast area and points north
for Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms precede the front
Tuesday, with a dry period Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to
marginally severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with a
longer period of daytime heating creating a more unstable airmass.
The shifting upper ridge will build a surface ridge over the
northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland, especially west
of the forecast area. Am expecting some of this moisture to bleed
over western-most portions of the forecast area Friday before
shifting further east over the weekend.

Heat Indices rising into the 100-105 degree range (a bit higher
locally) remain a problem for the southern half of the forecast area
through Tuesday until cooler/drier moves in. Currently, there are a
few reports of local Heat Indices already rising above 105 this
afternoon. 108 is the lowest reading for a Heat Advisory, so am not
expecting any WWAs at this time, just An upper ridge builds north over the Plains through Monday before a
deep upper level shortwave trough dives south over the Eastern
Seaboard, shifting the ridge west and less influential to the
forecast area mid week. A cold front moves south over the forecast
Tuesday in response, reaching the northern Gulf coast Tuesday night,
then moving south over the Gulf Tuesday night. With the path and
speed of the upper trough inconsistent in the guidance, how far
south the front moves and where the coldest air pushes south is
inconsistent in the guidance. What has been consistent is the
coldest air pushes south east of the forecast area. Wednesday on,
the upper trough moves off, with the upper ridge shifting over the
Southeast by the end of the week, where it remains through the
coming weekend.

There are a few items to deal with this package. The first is
Monday. Some guidance (about a third to half) is advertising a very
unstable airmass (MLCapes rising into the 3000-3500J/kg range)
developing over the Southeast Monday, with MCS' developing north of
the Southeast, then moving south across the region in the
afternoon/evening. Timing and path remain inconsistent with these
MCS', as with actual forming. As of this point, will have to keep an
eye on things, especially if more consistency in the guidance leads
SPC to alter the current Marginal Risk of severe storms (mainly for
wind) over the northern half of the forecast area and points north
for Monday.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms precede the front
Tuesday, with a dry period Wednesday and Thursday. Strong to
marginally severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon, with a
longer period of daytime heating creating a more unstable airmass.
The shifting upper ridge will build a surface ridge over the
northern Gulf coast, bringing Gulf moisture inland, especially west
of the forecast area. Am expecting some of this moisture to bleed
over western-most portions of the forecast area Friday before
shifting further east over the weekend.

Heat Indices rising into the 100-105 degree range (a bit higher
locally) remain a problem for the southern half of the forecast area
through Tuesday until cooler/drier moves in. Currently, there are a
few reports of local Heat Indices already rising above 105 this
afternoon. 108 is the lowest reading for a Heat Advisory, so am not
expecting any WWAs at this time, just a caution for folks working
and playing outside.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the
around 90 to 95 degree range area expected Monday, with bit of a
drop Tuesday, especially north, as the front starts crossing the
forecast area. Low to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
from there, high temperatures slowly rise back into the mid/upper
80s for the coming weekend. Low temperatures in the 70s last into
Monday night, before dropping into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday
and Thursday nights behind the front. From there, low temperatures
slowly moderate upwards to the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday
night.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area
beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow
decrease in the Rip Risk, with the current Moderate decreasing to a
Low by Monday. More organized east to southeasterly flow mid week
with bring a more organized influx of swell to area beaches, and a
High rip risk expected for the latter half of the week.
/16a caution for folks working and playing outside.

Taking a closer look at temperatures, high temperatures in the
around 90 to 95 degree range area expected Monday, with bit of a
drop Tuesday, especially north, as the front starts crossing the
forecast area. Low to mid 80s are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
from there, high temperatures slowly rise back into the mid/upper
80s for the coming weekend. Low temperatures in the 70s last into
Monday night, before dropping into the low to mid 60s for Wednesday
and Thursday nights behind the front. From there, low temperatures
slowly moderate upwards to the mid 60s to around 70 for Saturday
night.

Taking a look at the Rip Current risk on area beaches, consistent
onshore flow weakens though the weekend, decreasing swell on area
beaches. Even with a large tidal range, there will be a slow
decrease in the Rip Risk, with the current Moderate decreasing to a
Low by Monday. More organized east to southeasterly flow mid week
with bring a more organized influx of swell to area beaches, and a
High rip risk expected for the latter half of the week.
/16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1256 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Periods of MVFR/IFR conditions along with gusty, erratic winds
are possible near storms developing near a coastal seabreeze this
afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere across
the area. A cluster of storms is expected to move into south
central Alabama by mid-evening and move southwestward into
northwest Florida and coastal Alabama after midnight, again
bringing MVFR/IFR conditions and gusty, erratic winds. Southerly
to southwesterly winds around 10 knots, with gusts up to 18 knots
possible along the coast, will become light westerly tonight. /22

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Light to moderate westerly to southwesterly flow persists
through Monday. Winds turn northerly late Tuesday and easterly by
the middle of the week. Small craft conditions are possible
Wednesday through Friday in moderate to strong easterly to
southeasterly flow. Expect locally higher winds and seas near
thunderstorms.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      75  93  73  92 /  20  50  20  70
Pensacola   77  91  76  90 /  20  40  20  60
Destin      76  88  75  88 /  30  30  20  40
Evergreen   72  92  72  90 /  50  30  20  60
Waynesboro  73  93  72  90 /  20  40  30  60
Camden      71  90  71  86 /  40  30  30  40
Crestview   72  94  72  92 /  50  40  30  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
100 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ205-206-311845-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Okaloosa Coastal FL-
100 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL OKALOOSA COUNTY THROUGH
145 PM CDT...

At 100 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles south of Crestview, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3054 8671 3077 8669 3078 8639 3052 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 269DEG 17KT 3065 8660

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ203-205-312015-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
212 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN OKALOOSA AND NORTHERN
SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 212 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Baker to 11 miles east of Jay
to 7 miles northeast of Molino. Movement was east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Baker, Laurel Hill, Point Baker, and Roeville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3066 8722 3079 8731 3081 8729 3084 8730
      3097 8703 3099 8665 3099 8639 3072 8639
TIME...MOT...LOC 1912Z 265DEG 13KT 3093 8664 3091 8696 3081 8724

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
246 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

ALZ060-312015-
Covington AL-
246 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN COVINGTON COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 245 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Opp, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Opp and Heath.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3138 8657 3144 8619 3114 8619
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 311DEG 11KT 3135 8630

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
318 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ203>205-312100-
Okaloosa Inland FL-Santa Rosa Coastal FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
318 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN OKALOOSA AND CENTRAL
SANTA ROSA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM CDT...

At 317 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Point Baker, or 5 miles north of Milton, moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Crestview, Pace, Milton, Bagdad, Baker, Pea Ridge, Roeville, Point
Baker, and Floridatown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3049 8660 3048 8669 3052 8712 3081 8730
      3086 8731 3087 8730 3085 8676 3071 8647
      3050 8656 3048 8659 3047 8659
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 311DEG 27KT 3072 8706

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
358 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

FLZ201-203-312200-
Escambia Inland FL-Santa Rosa Inland FL-
358 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN SANTA ROSA AND
NORTHWESTERN ESCAMBIA COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

At 358 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Molino, or 9 miles south of Century, moving southeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Molino and Point Baker.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8752 3089 8750 3094 8730 3095 8693
      3068 8700 3060 8717
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 302DEG 9KT 3083 8729

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

JP