Wind Advisory 8, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
745 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

- Heavy Rainfall & Flooding: Another period of heavy rainfall is
  forecast Wednesday, and a Flood Watch has been extended for
  coastal counties through Wednesday evening. Additional rainfall
  totals of 1 to 3 inches are forecast with localized totals to 5
  to 7 inches possible which may lead to isolated instances of
  flash flooding.

- Strong Winds & Coastal Hazards: Wind gusts continue to increase
  from north to south today, reaching 35-45 mph at times through
  Wednesday. There is a small chance for peak gusts of around 50
  mph on the Volusia and Brevard coasts today and tonight. These
  winds will generate dangerous 9-12 ft surf, resulting in minor
  to moderate beach erosion and numerous life-threatening rip
  currents.

- Isolated Storms: While widespread severe weather is not
  expected, a few lightning storms are forecast and will be
  capable of wind gusts to 50 mph.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Current-Tonight... Deep moisture in vicinity of a stalled frontal
boundary combined with upper level support from a passing shortwave
supported numerous showers across central Florida this morning.
Afternoon radar trends and updated guidance have started to show a
drying trend into the evening, but lower coverage of isolated to
scattered light showers look to generally persist through tonight.
Although confidence in the heavy rainfall threat today and tonight
is diminishing, have opted to extend the current Flood Watch (8PM
Wed.) to capture the potential for additional rounds of heavy
rainfall tomorrow. Beyond the precipitation forecast, attention is
directed to a surge of increasing wind this afternoon and evening.
Wind gusts of 35-40 mph have been observed across Volusia county
this afternoon with additional gusts 25-35 mph observed in vicinity
of the Orlando metro. A tightening pressure gradient between high
pressure across the eastern U.S. and the stalled frontal boundary
will continue to increase winds from north to south this afternoon
and evening. The highest gusts are expected along the coast,
particularly near the Brevard Barrier Islands where there is a 30-
40% chance of gusts exceeding 45 mph this evening. A Wind Advisory
expands southward to include all of east central Florida by 8PM,
continuing through 12AM across the interior and 8AM Wednesday across
coastal counties. Increasing sustained onshore winds of 25-30 mph
along the immediate coast will contribute to rapidly deteoriating
beach and coastal conditions. A High Surf Advisory will spread
southward along the coast through this evening and overnight as
large breaking waves and rough surf build in the surf zone. A high
risk of life-threatening rip currents is also present at all east
central Florida beaches.

Wednesday-Thursday... The frontal boundary becomes stationary near
south Florida and the Straits of Florida mid week. A surface low is
forecast to become broadly organized along the boundary near or west
of the Bahamas. Further north, high pressure continues to build
along the northeast and mid Atlantic seaboard. A tight pressure
gradient is maintained locally on Wednesday, gradually loosening on
Thursday. This will continue to support windy and gusty onshore
flow. Ensemble means support periods of sustained winds 15-20 mph
across the interior, increasing to 20-30 mph along the immediate
coast into Wednesday afternoon. Gusts will become higher with
ensemble probabilities showing a 40 percent and greater chance for
gusts to exceed 35 mph across much of east central Florida. This
should support the need for an additional Wind Advisory with a
future forecast package issuance. Winds slacken some Thursday, but
still remain breezy with gusts 20-25 mph.

Deep moisture persists with PWATs between the 75th and 90th
climatological percentiles, and numerous rounds of showers are
forecast to continue through mid week. A pattern of opposing low-mid
level flow should generally support a continued heavy rainfall
threat along the coast, and slow moving bands of rain could support
additional rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches. Localized totals to 7
inches may lead to isolated instances of flash flooding, and WPC has
highlighted a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall along the east
central Florida coastline Wednesday. Areas which receive multiple
rounds of rainfall may become more vulnerable to flooding. The
storm environment remains limited, but strong 925mb flow could
support wind gusts to 50 mph in heavy showers or isolated embedded
storms.

Numerous coastal and marine hazards will continue at local beaches.
A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through Thursday evening for
large breaking waves up to 9 to 12 ft (peaking Wednesday). Minor to
Moderate beach erosion will be possible at high tide. Numerous life-
threatening rip currents and rough surf are expected. Entering the
water is not advised!

Friday-Weekend (modified previous)... This pattern slowly but surely
breaks down as we move through Friday and Saturday. Breezy
conditions persist with isolated showers and storms on Friday (20%),
trending drier on Saturday. Most places should be dry by Sunday and
next Monday as high pressure takes control.

Beach conditions will likely remain dangerous, with rough surf and
numerous rip currents continuing.

Temperatures will start to turn warmer, reaching the upper 70s to
low 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 357 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A slow moving front is analyzed across the Treasure Coast waters
this afternoon. Boating conditions are quickly deteriorating to the
north side of the boundary with Gale Warnings spreading southward
across the waters through this evening. Increasing northeast winds
to gale force will build seas 10-13 ft nearshore tonight with
seas increasing 12-15 ft in the Gulf Stream. Strong winds and
gusts to gale force are expected to persist through Wednesday
before gradually diminishing Thursday into late week. In response,
seas continue to build, peaking 13-17 ft in the Gulf Stream
Wednesday evening. Dangerous seas will then be very slow to
subside becoming 8-10 ft in the Gulf Stream late this weekend.
High coverage of showers are forecast over the local waters
through Thursday with a drying trend beginning Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 745 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Tight pressure gradient between front to the south and strong high
pressure well north will continue breezy to windy conditions
across the area tonight through tomorrow. Light to moderate rain
and showers continue this evening and may see a lull in activity
overnight, before high coverage of onshore moving showers pushing
well inland redevelop into tomorrow. Isolated storms will be
possible too, but not enough confidence to add into the TAFs at
this time. A mix of VFR/MVFR cigs will exist across the area
tonight into tomorrow, but MVFR cigs look largely dominate, with
localized IFR cigs possible at times. Showers/Rain bands will
also lead to IFR/MVFR conditions, with locally heavy rainfall
continuing to be possible, especially at the coast.

NE winds will diminish but remain breezy/gusty at times across the
interior overnight and then become windy again late tomorrow
morning/afternoon. Windy conditions will continue at the coast,
with sustained speeds up to 20-25 knots and gusts to 30-35 knots
at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  74  64  75 /  60  80  60  70
MCO  65  71  65  74 /  40  80  50  70
MLB  67  75  67  77 /  70  80  80  70
VRB  66  76  66  77 /  70  80  80  80
LEE  63  73  64  77 /  30  80  40  50
SFB  63  73  64  76 /  50  80  50  70
ORL  64  73  64  76 /  40  80  50  70
FPR  66  76  65  78 /  70  80  80  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flood Watch through Wednesday evening for FLZ041-141-154-159-164-
     247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ041-141-154-159-
     247-254-259-347-447-547-647-747.

     Wind Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for FLZ044>046-053-058-
     144.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-347-
     447-647-747.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ159-164.

     Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for FLZ164-264.

AM...Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ550-552-570-572.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ555-575.

     Gale Warning until 4 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ555-575.

&&

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Weitlich