Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- Scattered to numerous storms are expected each afternoon and
  evening through the rest of the work week across Central
  Florida, with 50-70% chance of rain. Main storm hazards will be
  frequent lightning, wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph, and locally
  heavy rainfall, which may cause localized minor flooding in
  urban and low drainage areas.

- Storms will begin to focus more over the interior from this
  weekend into next week as onshore flow deepens, forcing the
  Atlantic sea breeze farther inland.

- Seasonably hot and humid. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s,
  with peak heat indices of 100 to 105 each day. When planning to
  be outdoors, hydrate well and consider taking frequent breaks in
  the shade or air conditioning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Tonight... Upper level high pressure across the Atlantic and
across the TX/SW US will remain in place today, with Florida
residing between the two high pressures. Shortwave energy will
traverse near and over Florida through the day. At the surface, high
pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift northward, with the
axis remaining over the Florida peninsula. Locally, south to
southwest flow will persist, with the east coast sea breeze forecast
to form in the afternoon and push inland, turning the winds onshore.
Moisture over the local area will be near to slightly above normal
for this time of year, with PW values ranging from 1.7-2.1". this
coupled with energy aloft will support convection this afternoon.
Scattered showers and storms have already formed around the I-95
corridor this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze. Additional
showers and lightning storms are forecast to form across the
interior along boundary collisions between sea breezes and outflow
boundaries by late afternoon and into the early evening. Coverage
of showers and lightning storms today will be medium to high,
with 50-60 percent chance of rain along the coast, and 60-70
percent chance of rain across the interior.

The environment supports storms with  plenty of instability (MUCAPE
1800-2500 J/kg), ample buoyancy (lifted index of -4 to -7),
sufficient downdraft potential (DCAPE 800-1050 J/kg).  Main storm
hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55 mph, and
heavy rainfall of 1-3 " which may lead to minor localized flooding
in urban and poor drainage areas. Any lingering activity will
diminish around midnight, with activity across the Atlantic waters
continuing through the overnight. Temperatures will be near to
slightly above normal, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s
with peak heat indices of 100-105F. Overnight lows will be in the
low to mid 70s.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to give a tropical
wave in the Atlantic a 60% chance of tropical cyclone formation over
the next couple of days. While it is far too early to know whether
this feature will affect the U.S., it's a reminder to be prepared as
we head into peak hurricane season.

Thursday-Friday... Florida will remain situated between two upper
level high pressure systems, one in the Atlantic and one over TX/SW
US, as an upper level trough shift eastward towards the eastern US.
Shortwave energy will continue to traverse the base of this trough
over the Deep South and across the Florida peninsula. At the
surface, high pressure across the Atlantic will slowly shift
northward, with the axis remaining over Florida. Locally, offshore (S-
SW) flow will persist with speeds 5-10 mph each day. The east coast
sea breeze is forecast to form each afternoon, turning the winds
onshore (E-SE) as the sea breeze pushes inland. Moisture will remain
near to slightly above normal, with PW values 1.8-2.3" each day.
This will support a medium to high (50-70 percent) chance of showers
and storms through the period. Highest coverage will be across the
interior each afternoon and evening where the sea breeze and outflow
boundary collisions are forecast to occur. Main storm hazards will
be frequent lightning, gusty winds of 45-55mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Temperatures will be seasonably hot and humid into late
week, with overnight lows remaining warm and muggy.

Saturday-Wednesday... Upper level high pressure over the Atlantic
and the SW US will merge over the weekend and remain over the
southern US/Gulf/Atlantic into early next week. At the surface, high
pressure over the Atlantic will continue to shift northward towards
the Carolinas into early next week. A frontal boundary will slide
southward into the Deep South/Northern Florida this weekend before
stalling, eventually becoming diffuse by early next week. Locally,
winds will shift onshore (east to southeast) this weekend and remain
through at least mid next week as the surface high pressure moves
northward of Florida. Moisture across the local area will remain
near to above normal, with PW values of 1.8-2.1". Daily afternoon
showers and lightning storms are forecast to continue, with
scattered storms forming each day along the advancing east coast sea
breeze, with additional showers and storms forming across the
interior. Highest coverage of storms will be across the interior,
where the sea breeze collision is forecast to occur each evening.
Storm hazards will be similar to what they are today through late
week. Temperatures will remain seasonably hot and humid with
overnight lows warm and muggy.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Today-Sunday... Generally favorable boating conditions expected.
Atlantic high pressure will slowly shift northward, reaching the
local waters by Thursday and moving north of the area by the
weekend. Light south to southwest flow will persist through Friday,
with winds becoming onshore (east to southeast) and increasing to
around 12 KT each afternoon with the formation of the east coast sea
breeze. Winds will then shift onshore into the weekend as the high
pressure moves north of the area. Seas 1-2ft before increasing to 2-
3ft this weekend.  A few offshore-moving storms with sudden strong
wind gusts remain possible through Friday. Scattered onshore showers
and storms will then be possible into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 111 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Winds transitioning onshore with development/inland push of the
ECSB, and eventual collision with its WCSB counterpart late
day/early evening across the interior. SCT-NMRS coverage late today
with deep moisture in place across ECFL and this trend continuing
into Thu. Have inherited "VC" wording and TEMPO groups for MVFR
convection. Will adjust as necessary AFT 00Z depending on evening
trends. Primary concerns for aviation include local wind gusts 35-45
kts, frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Light winds
tonight and rinse/repeat for Thu.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  91  74  91 /  30  50  30  60
MCO  75  94  76  94 /  50  60  30  60
MLB  75  91  76  91 /  30  60  20  50
VRB  74  91  75  91 /  20  60  20  50
LEE  74  92  75  92 /  50  60  30  60
SFB  75  93  75  93 /  30  60  30  60
ORL  75  93  76  93 /  40  60  30  60
FPR  74  91  75  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ154-159-164-254-259-261915-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Indian River FL-
Coastal Martin FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
236 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT ST. LUCIE AND EASTERN INDIAN
RIVER COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 236 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Winter Beach to near Saint Lucie Airport
to Indian River Estates. Movement was north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Walton, Fort Pierce, Sebastian, and Stuart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2722 8046 2721 8052 2773 8064 2785 8041
      2724 8015
TIME...MOT...LOC 1836Z 161DEG 10KT 2770 8046 2749 8043 2737 8028

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
242 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NE Kennedy Space Cent 28.61N 80.62W
08/26/2026  M49 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 211 measured a
            peak wind gust of 49MPH/43KT from the south
            at 2:10 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
243 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 1 NNE Kennedy Space Cen 28.60N 80.64W
08/26/2026  M44 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 311 measured a
            peak wind gust of 44MPH/38KT from the east
            at 2:10 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
312 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ154-254-547-647-747-261945-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Inland Indian River FL-
Coastal Indian River FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
312 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMs WILL IMPACT CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER AND
SOUTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 311 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fellsmere, moving north at 10 mph. Additional strong storms were
developing across south and central Brevard County.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Sebastian, Fellsmere, and Indian River Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2767 8080 2805 8078 2806 8050 2767 8033
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 179DEG 10KT 2775 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ041-141-262015-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
347 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Daytona International Speedway, or near Daytona Beach. This
thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Daytona International Speedway, Spruce
Creek, and Samsula-Spruce Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2907 8102 2905 8124 2922 8115 2920 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 124DEG 2KT 2915 8111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sedlock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FLZ045-053-154-247-254-347-547-647-747-262030-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Osceola FL-Orange FL-
Inland Indian River FL-Coastal Indian River FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Mainland Southern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
401 PM EDT Wed Aug 26 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER...
BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Palm Bay, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Rockledge, Cocoa, and Cocoa Beach.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2773 8072 2773 8117 2776 8117 2783 8122
      2832 8120 2852 8095 2833 8056 2819 8056
      2786 8042
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 166DEG 12KT 2791 8077

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tollefsen