Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
248 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Drier air aloft moving into the region will lead to decreasing
  rain chances, falling to 30-50% today, with below normal
  coverage of showers and storms then forecast each day this week.
  Isolated strong storms will still be possible each day.

- Hot and humid conditions continue next several days. Peak heat
  index values of 102-107F forecast, and may reach Heat Advisory
  criteria (108-110F) for portions of the area this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Thru tonight...Late morning (15Z) XMR sounding shows drier air in
the mid to upper levels with most of the moisture below 725 mb
contributing to the calculated 2" Precipitable Water. Scattered
showers and lightning storms will continue to develop and lift
N/NW. Areas along the coast esp south of the Cape will remain
mostly dry as activity focuses on the interior and Volusia county.
The dry air in the mid levels is contributing to higher downdraft
CAPE values which supports more gusty wind potential with storms.
This drier air aloft is also producing more numerous and well
defined outflow boundaries for additional storms to spark. Locally
heavy rain accumulating 1-3" will be possible in the slower moving
storms.

The primary threat will be lightning strikes, especially those
that occur well outside of the rain shaft. We have seen several
instances of this "blue sky lightning" so far today. Seek shelter
in an enclosed building or automobile if thunder is heard or
threatening weather approaches. Screened porches, dugouts and
picnic shelters may keep you dry but they do not protect from
lightning.

Monday-Saturday...High pressure ridge aloft moves in and holds
across the area. The assocd suppression/subsidence will contribute
to hot conditions and below normal shower and storm chances.
Isolated to scattered showers will still be possible into Monday
afternoon/evening. Greatest rain chances (up to 30-40%) will exist
across inland portions of the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee
County, with slight rain chances (~20%) elsewhere. For the
remainder of the week, rain chances currently remain quite limited
around 20% or less as mid level drier air continues to move into
the region and ridge aloft remains in place. A gradual rise in
rain chances is possible into the weekend, but coverage still
looks to be overall below normal. Given the increase in drier air
aloft, while storm coverage remains below normal, any storms that
do manage to form will have the potential to become strong,
producing strong wind gusts of 40-50 mph and frequent lightning
strikes. Weak steering winds will also allow for heavy downpours
from some storms, producing locally heavy rainfall of 1-2" each
day.

These drier than normal conditions will allow for rising heat
impacts through the week as little relief will be found from
afternoon convection. Max temps will reach the low to mid 90s
each day. Peak heat index values will easily reach 102-107F, and
will have to monitor the need for Heat Advisories, especially
from Tuesday onward as portions of the area may see heat index
values rise to 108-110F. Warm and muggy overnight temps in the mid
to upper 70s will also amplify the overall heat impacts, with
widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk forecast for much of the
area each day. Continuing to follow heat safety practices will
remain important as we go through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Favorable boating conditions are forecast to continue through at
least mid week. Atlantic ridge axis currently north of the area
will start a slow southward progression, moving across the local
Atlc waters early this week and then reach south FL midweek. SE
winds again Monday will become S/SW Tue and W/SW by Wed-Thu.
However, the offshore flow will remain weak enough for the east
coast sea breeze to still form each afternoon, with winds
becoming onshore (SE) near the coast at 10-15 knots. Seas 2-3
feet through Monday then 1-2 feet the remainder of the week.
Shower and storm chances will be below normal this week with
coverage at 20 or less.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Increasing coverage of VCTS anticipated over the next few hours,
with VCTS at all terminals. TEMPOs at the interior terminals
between 19-24Z for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA. ESE winds
10 to 15 knots. Conditions dry out along the coast after 22Z and
across the interior after 03Z at the latest, with SE winds
persisting into the overnight hours around 5 knots. Winds pick
back up to around 10 knots out of the S across the interior and
out of the ESE along the coast. VCSH possible along the coast with
the development of the ECSB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  92 /  10  20  10  20
MCO  76  93  76  94 /  10  20  10  20
MLB  77  90  77  90 /   0  20   0  10
VRB  77  91  76  91 /   0  10   0  10
LEE  77  93  77  93 /  20  20  10  20
SFB  76  93  76  94 /  10  20  10  20
ORL  76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  20
FPR  76  90  76  91 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

DISCUSSION...Kelly
AVIATION...Tollefsen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
345 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

FLZ044-092015-
Northern Lake County FL-
345 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 345 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Cassia, moving north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eustis, Mount Dora, Cassia, Mount Plymouth, and Paisley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2900 8138 2898 8136 2897 8137 2896 8137
      2895 8135 2892 8135 2892 8136 2889 8136
      2889 8137 2887 8137 2883 8142 2878 8142
      2879 8163 2895 8172
TIME...MOT...LOC 1945Z 157DEG 8KT 2888 8144

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tollefsen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

FLZ044-092045-
Northern Lake County FL-
406 PM EDT Sun Aug 9 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

At 406 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Paisley, moving north at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eustis, Paisley, Pittman, Umatilla, and Forest Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2918 8155 2917 8152 2916 8152 2912 8150
      2910 8150 2909 8146 2906 8146 2904 8141
      2900 8138 2887 8168 2896 8170 2896 8166
      2905 8166 2905 8164 2920 8164 2920 8156
TIME...MOT...LOC 2006Z 157DEG 14KT 2902 8149

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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