Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- Afternoon and early evening storms will focus on the eastern
  side of the Florida peninsula today, where sea breeze
  convergence will generate lightning storms capable of very heavy
  rain and gusty winds up to 55 mph.

- Near-normal rain and storm chances continue through early this
  week, with the arrival of more Saharan dust mid- week limiting
  rain and storm chances.

- Hot, humid July temperatures will lead to afternoon heat indices
  between 102-107F each day. Be sure to practice heat safety!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...A slightly earlier than normal start to
convection this afternoon, with scattered showers and storms
ongoing along and north of I-4 by 2 PM. Outflow from this activity
is evident on KMLB radar, moving southward and sparking additional
development. Expect this to continue through the afternoon, with
some enhancement likely along the sea breeze as the boundaries
zipper southward. Gusty winds have already been observed, with a
41 mph wind gust at KDED. This is not surprising, with SPC
mesoanalysis suggesting DCAPE values approaching 800-1000 J/kg at
times over the next few hours. Thus, the main threats today will
be gusty winds to near 55-60 mph, lightning strikes, and locally
heavy rainfall. But, can't rule out some small hail, with the 15Z
XMR sounding finding 500 mb temperatures near -8C.

CAMs are slowly playing catchup with the earlier start to
convection. However, they are in fairly good agreement that
showers and storms will continue to move southward into this
evening, clearing the Treasure Coast near 8-10 PM. Then, drier
conditions prevail for the overnight hours. Will need to monitor
the potential for some showers and storms near Lake County near
sunrise, as suggested by a few CAMs. Though this appears to be
from convection near the panhandle, so it will likely depend on
if/how that evolves. Light offshore flow overnight, with morning
lows in the mid to upper 70s.

Monday-Thursday...A surface ridge plants itself over the Florida
peninsula through mid-week, fending off a front over the Southeast
US. This will maintain prevailing offshore flow through the
period, though daily sea breezes are forecast along the coast.
Scattered showers and storms (PoPs 40-60%) are expected once
again Monday afternoon, especially along the pinned sea breeze.
Storm threats will be similar to today, with enough drier air in
the mid-levels to support a few strong to marginally severe wind
gusts.

As we move into mid-week and high pressure strengthens over the
area, a surge of drier air aloft associated with the Saharan Air
Layer (SAL) moves over the state. Increased subsidence and dry
air aloft will work to limit shower and storm activity Tuesday
through Thursday. While isolated to widely scattered convection is
possible (15-30%, highest along the sea breeze) most areas will
likely remain dry. High temperatures warm increasingly into the
mid-90s through this week. Despite drier air aloft, PWATs near
1.6-1.8" will maintain heat indices 102-107F. Will need to
continue to monitor the need for Heat Advisories. Regardless,
residents and visitors are urged to practice heat safety. NEVER
leave children or pets unattended in a car for ANY period of time.

Friday-Next Weekend...High pressure weakens late week and into the
weekend, while effects from the SAL diminish. Thus, nearer to
normal coverage (30-40%) of showers and storms returns. Prevailing
offshore flow is forecast to persist, maintaining high
temperatures in the mid-90s. This may be the best chance to see
another Heat Advisory overall, as hot temperatures continue and
moisture slightly increases. Will need to continue to monitor
through the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions this week, as high pressure
remains over the area. Light offshore flow overnight increases to
up to 10 kts in the afternoons and becomes southerly near the
coast as the sea breeze develops. Seas 1-2 ft build to up to 3 ft
in the Gulf Stream at times. Offshore moving showers and storms
will be a threat through early this week. Then, drier air limits
convection overall mid to late week. Main hazards with any storms
will be wind gusts to near 45 kts, lightning strikes, small hail,
and heavy rainfall.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 134 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Ongoing showers and storms this afternoon, mainly along and north
of the I-4 corridor. Have pushed up timing of VCTS and TEMPOs to
reflect the earlier start to convection. MCO northward has TEMPOs
in effect starting at 18Z, and KISM starts at 19Z, with coastal
sites starting 20-22Z. TEMPOS are for MVFR conditions with wind
gusts to around 25 KT. Any lingering activity will dissipate or
move out of the area by 04Z, with mostly dry conditions forecast
through the overnight. SSE-SE winds around 10KT this afternoon
behind the sea breeze will become light and S-SW to variable at
times. Winds then become W/WSW at around 5KT by mid-morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  92  75  92 /  20  60  20  30
MCO  76  95  76  96 /  20  40  10  20
MLB  77  93  77  93 /  30  50  20  20
VRB  76  95  75  94 /  30  50  30  20
LEE  77  92  77  93 /  20  50  10  30
SFB  77  94  76  95 /  20  50  10  20
ORL  77  94  77  95 /  20  50  10  20
FPR  76  95  75  94 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Wishard
AVIATION...Watson

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