Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
120 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

- Scattered showers and lightning storms (chances 40-60%) this
  afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong and
  produce 40-50 mph wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and
  frequent cloud to ground lightning.

- Drier air knocks afternoon rain and lightning storm chances
  back closer to normal through the work week.

- Temperatures creep back up going into the work week, especially
  Monday & Tuesday when highs reach the mid to upper 90s, bringing
  back widespread HeatRisk impacts and heat indices up to around
  105.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today...Broad troughing begins to develop over the eastern US in
response to high pressure building over the desert Southwest. Weak
high pressure over Florida, the Gulf, and Caribbean is forecast
to hold the trough just north of the area. Model analysis puts the
ridge axis of the Atlantic high over to south of South Florida,
though with how weak the pressure gradient is the exact position
is a bit ambiguous. If not already there, the surface ridge axis
should eventual settle south of the area for much of the week,
continuing light to gentle offshore (WSW-SW) flow. Some drier air
has started to advect over the state, dropping PWATs to 1.6-1.9"
(higher to the north), closer to climatological normal. Showers
and storms could get another early start over the interior today on
the quick moving west coast sea breeze (chances 20-40%),
especially if the ribbon of upper level vorticity at the base of
the trough sags farther south than forecast. Probably not starting
as early as yesterday, closer to noon at the earliest. Should
also see more gradual increase in coverage as activity pushes east
through the afternoon, colliding the the east coast sea breeze
west of the I-95 corridor. Highest chances (40-60%) over the
coastal counties and adjacent portions of the inland counties from
Melbourne north, tapering off inland and south (30-50%). The
drier air aloft does offer more opportunity for downdraft
enhancement (DCAPE 700-1,000 J/kg), low-level lapse rates are a
bit steeper across the board (generally 7-8 C/km and in a couple
cases near 9 C/km), and instability is still plentiful (MUCAPE
2,000-3,500 J/lg), though mid-level temperatures have warmed a bit
(T500 around -6C). All in all the environment remains favorable
for quick forming, strong storms capable of wind gusts 40-50 mph,
locally heavy rainfall 2-3" (very low chance of around 4")
leading to minor flooding of low-lying/poor drainage areas, and
frequent to excessive cloud to ground lightning. Small hail can't
be ruled out, nor can brief funnel clouds or waterspouts. While
not as hot as late last week, temperatures remain above normal
with afternoon highs in the L-M90s, resulting in peak afternoon
heat indices 100-105, and widespread Moderate HeatRisk impacts
with pockets of Major in the inland urban areas.

Monday-Tuesday...The upper level pattern becomes stagnant as
blocking high pressure builds over the desert Southwest, keeping a
broad trough over the eastern US. Weak high pressure over
Florida, the Gulf, and Caribbean should keep the trough north of
the area. Will need to keep an eye on the ribbon of vorticity at
the base of the trough, which could provide support for convective
enhancement before it lifts off late Monday into Tuesday. At the
surface, we remain under control of the Atlantic high, whose ridge
axis continues its residency over South Florida to the Straits of
Florida, keeping us in an offshore (WSW-SW) flow regime that
favors a sea breeze collision over the eastern side of the
peninsula. While overall PWATs remain near normal at 1.6-1.9"
Monday and 1.7-2.0" Tuesday, drier air between 850-700mb will be a
considerable hurdle to deep convection, and knocks rain chances
back to 20-30% in the afternoons and evenings, a bit higher to
the south where more moisture is available. Primary storm hazards
will continue to be gusty winds 40-50 mph, locally heavy rainfall
(especially as steering flow breaks down), and frequent cloud to
ground lightning. Dangerous heat returns as high temperatures
creep back to the M-U90s, resulting in widespread Major HeatRisk
impacts, and peak afternoon heat indices approaching 105 again.

Wednesday-Saturday...Extended forecast can be characterized as
typical Florida summer. Aloft, blocking high pressure over the
desert southwest maintaining a broad "troughy" pattern over the
eastern US breaks down late in the week, resulting in zonal mid-
upper level flow. Weak riding over Florida keeps the trough
generally north of the area, but a impulses of vorticity
transiting the pattern could swing overhead at times. At the
surface, the ridge axis of the Atlantic highs remains stationed
over South Florida to the Straits of Florida by low pressure
systems passing to the north through most of the period, possibly
lifting north towards CFL by next weekend. The position of the
ridge axis will continue light to gentle offshore (WSW-SW) flow,
slowing inland progression of the east coast sea breeze, or even
pinning it near the coast, and favoring a sea breeze collision on
the eastern side of the peninsula. Still some variability in
forecast moisture, but overall expect near normal (20-40%) rain
chances each afternoon-evening. Staying very warm with above
normal high temperatures in the L-M90s, and peak afternoon heat
indices over 100. Forecast HeatRisk impacts for this period have
increased a bit in the last 24 hours, now showing closer to an
even split of Major (northern counties to the coast) and Moderate
(southern inland areas), and even a smattering of Extreme through
the latter part of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 222 AM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions outside of
offshore moving lightning storms, as high pressure over the
subtropical Atlantic extending to Florida remains in control. The
ridge axis of the high will keep station over South Florida to
the Straits of Florida, continuing offshore (WSW-SW) flow,
shifting SSE-E from the afternoons into the early over nights
behind the sea breeze. Wind speeds generally 5-10 kts, even
becoming light/variable at times, but occasionally peak to around
15 kts in the overnight periods. Seas 1-2 ft. High chances for
lightning storms continue this afternoon-evening, then chances
decease closer to normal Monday onward.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Showers and storms will continue to increase in coverage near the
terminals through this afternoon, with activity peaking with the
sea breeze collision. TEMPOs at all interior sites, DAB, and TIX
starting 18Z and at MLB at 20Z with VIS and CIG reductions due to
TSRA anticipated. Activity will move offshore and diminish into
the evening hours, with light and variable winds forecast
areawide. Low chance for some patchy fog development late tonight
into early Monday morning, but confidence in this is too low at
this time to include within the forecast. Will continue to monitor
closely. Winds pick up out of the SW after 14Z at most sites,
with SE winds from MLB southward after 16Z as the ECSB develops
and moves inland.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  93  76  95 /  30  30  10  20
MCO  76  95  77  95 /  20  20  20  10
MLB  77  92  78  92 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  76  93  77  93 /  30  20  20  30
LEE  77  95  77  95 /  10  10   0  10
SFB  76  96  77  96 /  20  20  10  10
ORL  76  95  78  95 /  10  20  10  10
FPR  75  92  76  92 /  30  20  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Tollefsen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

FLZ141-247-347-447-211845-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
221 PM EDT Sun Jun 21 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 245 PM EDT...

At 221 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scottsmoor, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Oak Hill, Haulover Canal, Mims, and Titusville Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8066 2846 8087 2849 8088 2850 8088
      2851 8089 2851 8090 2857 8093 2875 8096
      2879 8093 2879 8090 2882 8091 2888 8086
      2887 8074 2875 8065
TIME...MOT...LOC 1821Z 305DEG 9KT 2880 8085

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tollefsen