Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
726 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

- Not quite as hot as previous days, but temperatures still above
  normal and very muggy. Peak afternoon heat indices up to 107,
  and pockets of Major HeatRisk impacts among widespread Moderate.
  Similar conditions forecast Sunday.

- Showers and lightning storms could start by late morning
  (20-50% chances), then high (50-70%) chances in the afternoon &
  evening, especially near the coast along the sea breeze
  collision. Rain and lightning storm chances back off a bit
  Sunday.

- Going into the work weak, heat and widespread Major HeatRisk
  impacts return the first half, then taper off the second half.
  Offshore flow continues to favor a sea breeze collision over the
  eastern side of the peninsula, but less moisture brings rain
  chances closer to normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Today...The axis of the trough over the eastern US shifts
offshore the Atlantic seaboard, while ribbons of energy transiting
the pattern slide over Florida. At the surface, a weak front
remains stalled well north of Florida, pushing a very weak
Atlantic high ridge to the south from near Central Florida to
South Florida. Well above normal moisture remains in place over
Florida, with PWATs generally 2.0-2.2", except for a slot of drier
air across the southern counties where PWATs drop to 1.7".
Between the light offshore (SW-WSW) flow around/south of the ridge
and high cloud cover, a weak east coast sea breeze is likely to
remain pinned near to offshore the coast today. The cloud cover
and high/potentially early rain chances also bring high
temperatures down a degree or two from previous days to the
L-M90s, which combined with humidity, result in peak afternoon
heat indices between 102-107, and widespread Moderate HeatRisk
impacts with pockets of Major.

Between the modest upper level support and the high moisture,
showers and perhaps a lightning storm or two could get started
over the interior on a diffuse west coast sea breeze as early as 9
AM. There is some uncertainty where/if this initial convection
will develop, with some CAMs calling for activity to start from
the Nature Coast and work southeast, others initiating along most
of the west coast sea breeze and tracking east, and then the few
that are slower/later to start convection. Or in the HRRR's case,
any of these three scenarios depending on which run you look at.
How convection starts will determine evolution the rest of the
afternoon and evening. The official forecast weighs heavily
towards the HREF/REFS solutions, which call for the first scenario
where showers and storms initially develop along and north of I-4
(PoPs 20-40%), tracking southeast while increasing in coverage,
colliding with the pinned east coast sea breeze in the afternoon
and evening where PoPs top off at 70%, before moving offshore.
Meandering boundaries and additional bands of upper level support
could keep showers and storms going into the early overnight.
While there is copious instability (MUCAPE and even MLCAPE at
times up to 3,000 J/kg), mediocre shear (bulk shear generally 20
kts or less), and warm-ish 500mb temperatures around -7C aren't
helping storm organization and strength. Across the northern half
of the area, shallow lapse rates (less than 6C/km) and saturated
profiles (DCAPE less than 700 J/kg) lend towards high coverage of
efficient rain makers capable of wet microbursts. To the south,
the drier air aloft results in higher DCAPE at or above 800 J/kg,
and low-level lapse rates are forecast to be a bit steeper, which
could support slightly stronger storms. All in all, primary storm
hazards will be gusty winds 45-55 mph, and can't rule out an
isolated damaging gust to 60 mph, locally heavy rainfall 2-3"
(very low chance for 4" or more), and frequent cloud to ground
lightning. Hail up to 1" is possible, and funnel clouds/
waterspouts can't be ruled out given the high moisture and
abundant boundaries.

Sunday-Monday...A persistent pattern begins to lock in as nearly
stationary troughing builds over the eastern US in response to a
blocking high developing over the desert southwest. Weak high
pressure building over the Gulf, Florida, and the Bahamas keeps
the trough to the north. The ridge axis of the Atlantic high takes
up residence over South Florida to the Straits of Florida as more
low pressure systems pass to the north, continuing light to
moderate offshore (WSW-SW) surface flow. The next of these low
pressure systems is forecast to lift the front stalled over the
Southeast north and away, taking some of the higher moisture with
and allowing drier air to advect over Florida. Between the drier
air and less upper level support, rain chances are knocked back to
40-60% Sunday, and down to only 10-30% Monday. The east coast sea
breeze will remain slow/late/pinned, focusing the highest chances
near the coast in the late afternoon and evening. Stronger storms
remain possible Sunday as instability stays high, and lapse rates
and DCAPE improve, with wind gusts up to around 50 mph, locally
heavy rainfall, and frequent cloud to ground lightning possible.
More typical afternoon thunderstorms are on tap for Monday.
Temperatures remain slightly above normal Sunday in the L-M90s,
but cloud cover and rain chances undercut HeatRisk, keeping
impacts to widespread Moderate with spots of Major, and peak
afternoon heat indices 101-106. Heat concerns return Monday as
highs push towards the M-U90s, resulting in more mixed Moderate
to Major HeatRisk impacts, and peak afternoon heat indices
creeping towards 105 or higher again.

Tuesday-Friday...Upper level pattern stagnates as blocking high
pressure remains anchored over the desert Southwest, keeping
a broad trough over the eastern US. While a weak ridge over the
Gulf, Florida, and the Caribbean is expected to keep the trough
mostly north of the area, a few impulses of energy transiting the
pattern could swing over Florida at times. At the surface, the
ridge axis of the Atlantic high remains shunted over South Florida
to the Straits of Florida through Thursday by low pressure systems
passing to the north, keeping winds light to moderate offshore
(SSW-SW) through the week. This flow regime favors slower/later
develop of the east coast sea breeze and a collision on the
eastern side of the peninsula. Some variability in moisture is
forecast, but overall expect below to near normal (20-40%) rain
and lightning storm chances. Staying very warm with above normal
temperatures in the L-M90s, and peak afternoon heat indices over
100. Widespread Major HeatRisk impacts continue Tuesday.
Technically very gradual relief is forecast through the second
half of the week, but only shaving a degree or two off heat
indices, and HeatRisk remains Moderate to Major.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 242 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Today-Wednesday...Generally favor boating conditions outside of
offshore moving lightning storms. The ridge axis of the Atlantic
high is forecast to be shunted over South Florida to the Straits
of Florida, where it will remain through the period as low
pressure systems pass to the north. Offshore (SW-SSW) winds 5-15
kts shifting onshore (SSE-SE) in the afternoon to early overnight
behind the sea breeze will continue through the weekend and most
of next week. Seas 1-2 ft, occasionally up to 3 ft in the Gulf
Stream. Primary hazard will be offshore moving showers and
lightning storms in the afternoons and evenings, especially today
and Sunday when scattered to numerous storms capable of gusts over
34 kts and frequent cloud to water lightning are forecast. Rain
and storm chances over the Atlantic waters decrease going into
the work week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Shower and storm coverage is forecast to remain above normal (rain
chances 50-70%) as a west-southwest flow concentrates/steers
showers and storms across east central FL. Scattered showers and
storms will initially develop inland (potentially off to an
earlier start today) with coverage of this activity increasing as
it shifts eastward toward the coast and offshore through the
afternoon. 6-hour VCTS windows continue with the 12Z TAFs,
starting from 16-17Z inland to 18-19Z at the coast, and have also
added 3-hour tempo groups for MVFR TSRA impacts at all sites.

Outside of showers and storms, VFR conditions are generally
expected. However, some brief MVFR cigs will be possible this
morning. Light and variable winds early this morning will become
W/SW up to 5-9 knots. The east coast sea breeze will then develop
near to south of KMLB from 17-18Z onward, switching winds to the
E/SE to 8-10 knots at the coast. Strong and erratic wind gusts up
to 35-45 knots will be possible near any storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  74  91  75 /  70  30  40  20
MCO  93  75  93  75 /  60  30  40  10
MLB  92  75  91  76 /  70  30  50  20
VRB  92  74  92  76 /  70  30  40  20
LEE  93  76  93  76 /  50  20  40  10
SFB  93  75  94  76 /  60  30  50  20
ORL  93  76  93  77 /  60  30  40  10
FPR  91  74  91  75 /  70  30  40  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1257 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

FLZ045-046-201730-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
1257 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE AND
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EDT...

At 1257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Winter Garden, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, Ocoee, and Winter Garden.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2870 8166 2873 8136 2840 8137 2841 8166
      2854 8166 2858 8165 2859 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 271DEG 15KT 2858 8158

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Tollefsen

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