Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Melbourne, FL

458 
WWUS52 KMLB 142017
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
417 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLC095-097-142030-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-260814T2030Z/
Orange FL-Osceola FL-
417 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EDT
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Austin Tindall
Park, or near Buena Ventura Lakes, moving southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Orlando International Airport, Buena Ventura Lakes, East
Lake Toho, and Narcoossee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2845 8132 2844 8122 2838 8117 2826 8121
      2836 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 029DEG 9KT 2836 8130 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Heil

431 
WWUS52 KMLB 142029
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLC095-097-142039-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-260814T2030Z/
Orange FL-Osceola FL-
429 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2845 8132 2844 8122 2838 8117 2826 8121
      2836 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 028DEG 8KT 2834 8131 

$$

Heil

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, CLIMATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

- Heat Advisory continues through 8PM this evening for heat index
  values exceeding 108F degrees; Remember to practice heat
  safety!

- Impactful heat is expected to continue. Maximum heat index
  values will reach near Heat Advisory criteria (108F+) each day
  through the weekend and into next week; Additional Heat
  Advisories are likely for at least portions of east central
  Florida each day

- Below normal rain chances are forecast this weekend into early
  next week. Drier air aloft due to the Saharan Air Layer will
  support strong and gusty winds in any lightning storms each day

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Current-Tonight... Satellite and KMLB radar imagery show isolated to
scattered showers and storms developing along and ahead of the east
coast sea breeze this afternoon. High-Res guidance has generally
shown the greatest coverage building across the interior from
Osceola northward (~50-60%) late this afternoon and into the
evening. Despite high PWATs analyzed around 2.0", the 15Z XMR
sounding and updated MCO ACARS profiles show a layer of dry air
above 850 mb. While shear remains weak, isolated strong updrafts
which interact with the layer of dry air aloft will be capable of
thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-50 mph and frequent lightning
strikes. Outside of showers and storms, hot conditions continue,
and temperatures will continue to climb through the 90s. A Heat
Advisory remains in effect through 8PM for peak heat index values
exceeding 108 degrees. Shower and storm activity diminishes or
moves west of the local forecast area by 9PM with dry conditions
overnight. Low temperatures fall to range the mid to upper 70s.

Weekend... A 500mb ridge continues to build over the southern U.S.
this weekend while a surface ridge axis remains extended across
central Florida. A thin ribbon of higher moisture lifts from the
southeast on Saturday providing the best chances for scattered
showers and storms across portions of Okeechobee and the interior
Treasure Coast (30-50%), and widely isolated coverage exists
further north (20% or less). The surge of locally higher moisture
will be short lived, followed by a plume of Saharan dry air. This
should keep below seasonal rain chances on Sunday with a 20%
chance of isolated showers and storms across the area. Despite low
rain chances, efficient surface heating should support a few
quick updrafts, and tall storms which interact with dry air aloft
will be capable of localized downburst wind gusts of 35-50 mph.

With little relief from showers and storms for most of the area,
expect a period of impactful heat to continue. High temperatures
climb into the mid to upper 90s each day, and a few daily records
may be within reach across the north interior. Peak heat index
values are forecast to climb near or above 108F, and Heat Advisories
look likely to continue into the weekend. Be sure to practice heat
safety, and never leave children alone in the car. Look before
you lock!

Monday-Thursday... The structure of the 500mb high broadens over the
southern U.S. into next week but should still hold influence over
east central Florida. Surface low pressure is forecast to move
offshore the mid-Atlantic and northeastern seaboard on Monday,
and an associated frontal boundary sags into the southeast U.S.
The front remains north of central Florida, although it should
still increase moisture locally. Low rain chances (20-30%) remain
focused near and north of Orlando and Cape Canaveral on Monday
before a more seasonal pattern of scattered showers and storms
returns areawide into mid week. A period of impactful heat
continues with above normal temperatures in the mid to upper 90s
forecast each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure will promote favorable boating conditions through the
weekend and into next week. South to southwest flow overnight and
early each morning shifts south-southeast as the sea breeze develops
each afternoon, and winds mostly remain 10 kts or less. Seas hold 1-
2 ft, building to 3 ft far offshore early next week. Isolated to
scattered showers and storms are forecast south of the Cape through
late Saturday morning. Drier air will then lead to lower than normal
rain chances late Saturday and into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

The east coast sea breeze has developed and begun pushing land,
shifting light/VRB winds onshore (E-SE) at 5-10 kts behind the
boundary. ISO TS/SH have developed across the area, and are
expected to increase in coverage becoming SCT-NUM INVOF of
KMCO/inland terminals after 21Z as outflow and the sea breezes
collide over the interior. Most TS should dissipate or depart
westward after 23Z, but some activity could linger INVOF of the
inland terminals until around 02Z. Added VCTS to most coastal
terminals, and upgraded inland PROB30 to TEMPOs based on latest
trends and guidance, but overall TS timing remains unchanged.
Quiet and dry overnight, with light/VRB winds. Lower coverage of
TS/SH forecast Saturday. Flow becomes more onshore (ESE-SE),
favoring quickly development/progression of the east coast sea
breeze.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 257 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites through this weekend:

Site          Aug 14       Aug 15       Aug 16
Daytona     96  (2010)   97  (2023)   97  (2023)
Leesburg    98  (1991)   96  (1984)   96  (2011)
Sanford     98  (2013)   97  (1999)   97  (2023)
Orlando     98  (2007)   98  (1938)   101 (1918)
Melbourne   97  (2010)   98  (1963)   96  (2022)
Vero Beach  97  (1993)   95  (1993)   96  (2022)
Fort Pierce 96  (1929)   97  (1929)   97  (1948)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  94  77  94 /   0  20  10  20
MCO  76  97  77  97 /  10  20  20  20
MLB  78  92  78  94 /  10  10   0  20
VRB  76  92  76  93 /   0  20   0  10
LEE  78  96  78  96 /  20  20  20  10
SFB  77  96  78  96 /  10  20  10  30
ORL  77  96  78  96 /  10  20  20  20
FPR  76  92  75  94 /  10  30   0  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
137 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ259-141800-
Inland St. Lucie FL-
137 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WESTERN ST. LUCIE COUNTY THROUGH
200 PM EDT...

At 137 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Tradition, or 12 miles west of White City, moving
west at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western St. Lucie
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2725 8050 2731 8068 2746 8068 2756 8065
      2748 8043 2747 8043 2745 8040
TIME...MOT...LOC 1737Z 110DEG 10KT 2736 8055

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Weitlich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ058-254-259-141830-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Indian River FL-
154 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ST. LUCIE...
NORTHEASTERN OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 154 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southeast of Fort Drum, moving west at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Drum and Country Hills Estates.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2751 8046 2731 8055 2735 8091 2774 8074
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 112DEG 19KT 2743 8060

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ045-141830-
Orange FL-
213 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 213 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlando International Airport. This thunderstorm was nearly
stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Orlando International Airport, Conway, Pine Hills, and Oak
Ridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2860 8149 2847 8117 2835 8132 2835 8139
      2839 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 213DEG 1KT 2842 8135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
241 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ041-045-046-053-141-247-347-447-547-647-141915-
Coastal Volusia FL-Osceola FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
241 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE...SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA AND NORTHEASTERN
OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

At 241 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Maytown to near Mims to Lone Cabbage Fish
Camp. Movement was west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, Titusville, Oviedo, and Winter Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2889 8092 2865 8073 2827 8077 2814 8105
      2889 8131
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 087DEG 4KT 2878 8103 2865 8082 2835 8087

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
329 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ045-046-053-142000-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
329 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE...ORANGE
AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM EDT...

At 329 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Goldenrod to Wedgefield to 10 miles west of
Lone Cabbage Fish Camp. Movement was southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, and Ocoee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2861 8165 2795 8120 2829 8093 2856 8098
      2870 8128
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 059DEG 12KT 2861 8129 2848 8107 2832 8104

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

FLZ045-046-053-142030-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-
354 PM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN SEMINOLE...
SOUTHWESTERN ORANGE AND NORTH CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM
EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Orlando International Airport, moving southwest at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Altamonte Springs, Winter Springs, and Saint
Cloud.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2870 8131 2861 8124 2842 8106 2813 8125
      2837 8155 2866 8145
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 027DEG 19KT 2842 8129

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil