Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms have again developed
  this afternoon. A few storms will be capable of producing wind
  gusts of 40 to 55 mph, frequent lightning, and localized
  flooding in urban and poorly drained areas.

- Onshore flow develops Wednesday, shifting the highest coverage
  of showers and storms over the interior for the middle of the
  week.

- As a trough approaches the state on Friday and Saturday, a surge
  of moisture and easterly winds is expected. Enhanced shower and
  storm coverage, choppy surf, and a heightened risk of life-
  threatening rip currents are forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rest of Today-Tonight...Offshore (southwesterly) flow across the
Florida peninsula between a stalled front/cut-off mid-level low
over the Deep South and the Bermuda High continues one last day,
ushering along the west coast sea breeze while slowing the east
coast breeze, which has developed from the Cape south. Isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms marching northeast have
developed inland, and a few have popped up along the east coast
sea breeze, some of which have slid off the boundary and offshore.
Expect a usual high moisture summer time storm evolution, with
coverage of showers and storms increasing through the rest of the
afternoon, becoming scattered to numerous and peaking as the sea
breezes and outflow boundaries collides over East Central Florida.
A little bit of dry air has found its way into the lower-levels
from near the Cape to Lake Kissimmee or so southward, which is
inhibiting convection some, but could also enhance downdrafts and
produce wind gusts up 55 mph. To the north the saturated
atmosphere and water loading could still produce gusts 40-50 mph.
Other storms hazards will be frequent lightning and torrential
rainfall. Storms and heavy showers that get hung up on boundaries,
especially along the sea breeze collision, could become nearly
stationary and delivery a quick 2-3" of rainfall, and there is a
very low chance (10% or less) for locally high amounts over 4",
that could lead to minor flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas. Near normal temperatures with afternoon highs in the
U80-L90s, resulting in peak afternoon heat indices around 100.

Wednesday-Thursday...We settle back into an onshore flow regime
as the Bermuda High shifts west towards the eastern seaboard,
quickly lifting the ridge axis through Florida Wednesday, then
north of the area by Thursday. Moisture remains above normal
Wednesday in the weakening southerly flow, then bands of
relatively lower moisture begin to arrive Thursday in the easterly
flow, but overall still staying near to above normal. Despite the
high overall moisture, drier air in the low-levels Wednesday cuts
back rain chances closer to normal, with the highest chances
(50-70%) shifting towards the interior as the sea breeze is able
to push farther inland, and lower chances (20-40%) along the
coast. For Thursday will have to see how the moisture banding sets
up, but for now forecast calls for a slight uptick in rain
chances (40-60% along the coast and 50-70% inland). Storms will be
capable of the usual threats, gusty winds to 50 mph, occasional
to frequent lightning, and torrential downpours. Temperatures
creep up a degree or two, but remain near to slightly below normal
in the U80s-L90s.

Friday-Saturday...An inverted trough from the tropics is expected
to approach Florida as it slides along the southern flank of the
Bermuda high, but there is considerable disagreement in track and
sharpness. The last few runs, the GFS suite has favored a stronger
surface high, tracking the feature across Florida into the Gulf,
while the ECM suite has favored a weaker high which recurves the
system near to offshore the coast. The former could lead to
banding of heavy rainfall across the peninsula, while the latter
would limit heavy rainfall to the coast or keep it offshore. Both
are dependent how sharp the trough becomes, with a sharper trough
supporting banding of heavy rainfall, and the risk decreasing the
weaker the feature stays. However, all scenarios are likely to
produce rough surf and increase the threat of life-threatening
rip currents at the beaches as onshore flow increases. Given the
spread, broad above normal rain and storm chances are maintained
in the forecast. Otherwise, not much change in temperatures which
remain near normal, though tick up a degree or two Saturday.

Sunday-Monday (Previous Discussion)...From Sunday into early next
week, cluster analysis shows strong agreement that the Bermuda
high will flatten and stretch westward over the Gulf and Florida.
This would likely nudge the surface high pressure axis southward,
perhaps reaching very close to our latitude by Monday. Somewhat
drier air, associated with an approaching Saharan Air Layer (SAL),
may impinge on South Florida in about a week. Guidance largely
agrees that the surge of moisture associated with the
aforementioned wave will lift northward and away from Central and
South Florida by Sunday and especially Monday. However, moisture
values should only tick down to near-normal values for mid-August.
With a robust sea breeze circulation expected, scattered storms
(30-60%) should still form each day - with the greatest coverage
over the interior.

As deep-layer ridging parks over Florida, temperatures may trend a
bit hotter, into the low and mid 90s. This will be accompanied by
very muggy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rest of Today-Thursday...Generally favorable boating conditions
outside of lightning storms. A weak low pressure system over the
Deep South dissipates as the Bermuda high shifts closer to the
eastern seaboard. Offshore (SW-S) flow today becomes somewhat
light/variable tonight into Wednesday as the ridge axis quickly
lifts through Florida, settling to onshore (ESE-SE) late Wednesday
onward as the axis parks across the Mid-Atlantic Seaboard. Wind
speeds 5-15 kts. Seas 1-2 ft begin building to 2-4 ft Thursday as
a weak tropical wave approaches. Scattered to numerous showers and
lightning storms are expected near the coast today, some of which
could push offshore, then the highest chances shift inland
Wednesday and Thursday in the onshore flow. Isolated
overnight/early morning showers and storms will be possible.

Friday-Saturday...Deteriorating boating conditions are possible as
a weak tropical wave passes over or near the local Atlantic
waters. While there is high confidence the wave will remain weak,
confidence in the exact track is low. Seas are likely to build to
3-5 ft by Friday, and ERLY winds could increase to 15-20 kts over
the Gulf Stream waters. There could also be gusty squalls if the
wave does reach the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 144 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions are forecast outside of showers/lightning storms.
VCTS is forecast at all TAF sites after 18Z/19Z with TEMPO TSRA
groups this evening mainly between 18Z/19Z-22Z/23Z. ESE winds at
5-10kts are forecast at the coastal TAFs; WSW winds at 5-10kts at
the inland TAFs are expected to back SSE in the late afternoon and
evening. The potential exists for isolated strong storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  88  75  89 /  50  30  30  40
MCO  75  90  75  91 /  40  50  30  60
MLB  75  88  77  88 /  50  30  30  40
VRB  74  88  77  88 /  50  40  30  60
LEE  75  90  75  91 /  20  50  30  60
SFB  75  90  75  91 /  50  50  30  50
ORL  75  90  76  91 /  40  50  30  50
FPR  74  88  76  88 /  50  40  40  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Haley
AVIATION...Fehling

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