Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Melbourne, FL

286 
WWUS52 KMLB 311813
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
213 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

FLC009-311830-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-260731T1830Z/
Brevard FL-
213 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY...

At 212 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 8 miles northeast of
Port Canaveral, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Cape Canaveral, Port Canaveral, and Jetty Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8056 2834 8057 2834 8060 2866 8063
      2867 8060 2860 8054 2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1812Z 273DEG 17KT 2850 8051 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Sedlock

920 
WWUS52 KMLB 311821
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

FLC009-311830-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-260731T1830Z/
Brevard FL-
221 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 230 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Melbourne.

LAT...LON 2839 8056 2834 8057 2834 8060 2866 8063
      2867 8060 2860 8054 2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1820Z 270DEG 14KT 2850 8049 

$$

Sedlock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
133 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- Above-normal coverage of showers and storms continues through
  the weekend. A few strong storms are forecast, capable of
  producing gusty winds up to around 45 mph, frequent lightning,
  and torrential rainfall leading to localized flooding.

- Unsettled weather slowly transitions toward more normal
  summertime conditions by next Tuesday or Wednesday as high
  pressure builds over the state.

- Seasonably hot conditions each day ahead of the storms. Very
  muggy, with peak heat indices up to around 105 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

             -----------Synoptic Overview-----------

Florida remains situated at the base of a mid-level trough along
the Eastern Seaboard. Upstream, an additional disturbance over
the Missouri Valley is pushing toward the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile,
anomalous H5 ridging extends from the W Caribbean Sea to the
Mojave Desert. The surface Bermuda high remains centered just
south of the Florida Peninsula. To its north, a quasi-stationary
front is parked from offshore of Cape Hatteras to near Montgomery,
AL. This has focused a reservoir of tropical moisture, with PWAT
values exceeding 2 inches over Florida and the northern Gulf Coast.

Through this weekend, the shortwave over the Upper Midwest is
expected to deepen into a longwave trough over the Mississippi
River Valley. On its eastern flank, vorticity perturbations will
emanate from the NE Gulf, skirting close to Central Florida. Broad
southwesterly flow persists, sending copious moisture over the
state.

Early next week, global ensembles suggest the trough will begin to
fill. Beyond Wednesday (8/5), the large H5 anticyclones over the
Four Corners and W Atlantic should attempt to bridge into a large
ridge axis extending roughly along 35 N latitude. Should this occur,
the near-surface high pressure axis would also move northward,
allowing E/SE flow to return off the Atlantic. However, a glance
at 30/12Z cluster analysis revealed low confidence in the strength
of the ridge over the SE U.S. by late next week. This introduces
uncertainty regarding how far northward the surface ridge axis will
travel, which will affect the available moisture and dominant sea
breeze patterns that dictate convective coverage by that time.

             -------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Today - Tonight...

A compact area of thunderstorms along the Nature Coast is slowly
progressing toward the SE this morning, its debris showers
clipping portions of Lake and Orange counties. Low rain/storm
chances (20-40%) are in the forecast to account for this. This
sustained overnight activity is somewhat unusual for summertime,
indicating that forcing remains in place and continues to interact
with the high moisture overhead.

It is quite difficult to pinpoint the impulses sparking these
rounds of showers and storms. With a trough axis immediately
to our north, it is likely that another round will develop from
midday into the afternoon. West-southwest flow will continue to
favor more activity on the eastern half of the peninsula. Model
proximity soundings support some stronger storms again today,
with frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts from 35 to 45 mph, and
perhaps even some coin-sized hail. Shear remains weak, limiting
sustained organization of storms. However, repeated bands of
storms interacting with the rich moisture can produce excessive
rainfall in a hurry. REFS 95th percentile rainfall tallies of 3+
inches in 6 hours support this isolated flooding threat.

Highs today should be close to normal in the lower 90s, with peak
heat indices from 100 to 105. Later tonight, only low rain and
storm chances linger amid warm and muggy conditions.

Weekend - Monday...

Those planning to be outdoors this weekend should keep their
umbrellas (and backup plans) ready to go. A rinse-and-repeat
pattern continues for Central FL as moisture pools over the state
and southwesterly flow pushes scattered to numerous storms (60-80%)
toward the eastern half of the peninsula by afternoon/evening. The
presence of weak disturbances aloft may also act as triggers
for storms earlier in the day or lingering into the night. Will
continue to monitor for wind gusts to 45 mph, frequent lightning,
and multiple rounds of heavy rain, leading to localized flooding in
urban and poorly drained locales. Beachgoers and boaters should keep
an eye on the western sky for dark clouds and approaching storms.

Seasonably warm high temps in the lower 90s should prevail each day.

Tuesday - Next Friday...

A transition back to more typical summertime weather is expected
during this period as offshore flow relaxes and high pressure pushes
overhead. Afternoon and evening storms should become driven by the
sea breeze circulation once again, rather than synoptic triggers. As
background winds become light and onshore, the Atlantic sea breeze
should become more dominant and push westward. This should focus
maximum rain and storm coverage deeper into the interior. Near- to
above-normal moisture is expected to persist, leading to localized
heavy rain and gusty wind potential from the strongest storms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The local Atlantic sits between a stationary front over South
Georgia and the western Atlantic high-pressure axis over the Florida
Straits. Persistent offshore flow through the weekend will interact
with weak disturbances to produce rounds of offshore-moving showers
and storms. Gusty winds are anticipated with this activity. The
high should begin to lift northward by the middle of next week,
and a return of the daily sea breeze circulation is likely.

South-southwest winds with speeds less than 12 kt through Saturday
morning. From late Saturday into Sunday, a subtle wind surge
occurs with S/SW winds 10-15 kt. Seas 1-2 ft nearshore through the
weekend, up to 3-4 ft in the Gulf Stream from Saturday night
through early Monday, especially north of Sebastian Inlet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

SCT-NMRS showers/lightning storms in the forecast for this
afternoon/early evening (SOUTH). Activity should roll thru the
I-4 corridor early-mid afternoon, then push off of the east coast
thru this afternoon and early evening (SOUTH). The ECSB for its
part may develop but will remain pinned near the coast and may
provide a focus for pulse strong storms as activity pushes off of
the coast. Will take a closer look at timing/TEMPOs with upcoming
forecast package. May need to watch for late overnight/early
morning convection near/north of I-4 as depicted by some CAMs.
SW/W winds 7-12 kts with higher aftn gusts will become light again
this evening/overnight. Another round of SCT-NMRS storms expected
again on Sat. Rinse/Repeat.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  89  74  89 /  20  80  30  70
MCO  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
MLB  75  90  75  90 /  30  80  20  80
VRB  73  91  73  90 /  30  70  30  80
LEE  75  89  75  87 /  20  70  50  70
SFB  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
ORL  76  90  75  90 /  20  70  30  70
FPR  73  90  73  89 /  30  70  30  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Heil
AVIATION...Sedlock

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
143 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0135 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 ENE Titusville Airpor 28.53N 80.77W
07/31/2026  M45 MPH          AMZ552             FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 1007 (NASA
            Causeway) measured a peak wind gust of
            45MPH/39KT from the west at 1:35 PM. Sensor
            elevation is 54 feet.

&&

DKW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
146 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 4 NW Kennedy Space Cent 28.63N 80.70W
07/31/2026  M44 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 513 (SLF North)
            measured a peak wind gust of 44MPH/38KT from
            the west at 1:40 PM. Sensor elevation is 30
            feet.

&&

DKW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
147 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0140 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 5 E Lagrange            28.64N 80.75W
07/31/2026  M43 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 714 (Merritt Isl
            Wildlife Refuge) measured a peak wind gust
            of 43MPH/37KT from the west at 1:40 PM.
            Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

DKW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
150 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0145 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 SW Kennedy Space Cent 28.56N 80.67W
07/31/2026  M46 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 509 measured a
            peak wind gust of 46MPH/40KT from the west
            at 1:45 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

DKW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

FLZ447-747-311830-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
154 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN BREVARD COUNTY
THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Port Canaveral, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Rockledge, Cocoa, Cocoa Beach, Cape Canaveral, and Port Canaveral.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2839 8057 2830 8056 2833 8072 2866 8075
      2868 8060 2860 8054 2846 8049
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 270DEG 14KT 2848 8063

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

Sedlock

Preliminary Local Storm Report...Corrected
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
156 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 SW Kennedy Space Cent 28.56N 80.67W
07/31/2026  M49 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 509 measured a
            peak wind gust of 49MPH/43KT from the
            southwest at 1:50 PM. Earlier, a gust to
            46MPH/40KT occurred at 1:45 PM. Sensor
            elevation is 54 feet.

&&

REH