Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
221 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

- Deep moisture and light southwest flow will continue high
  afternoon and evening rain chances along the sea breeze
  collision through Tuesday. A few strong storms will be capable
  of frequent lightning strikes, localized wind gusts of 45-55
  mph, and heavy rainfall.

- Drier air builds mid to late week, noticeably reducing rain
  chances from Thursday onward.

- Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue this
  afternoon. A building HeatRisk is expected mid to late week with
  temperatures increasing into the mid to upper 90s across the
  interior.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Current-Tuesday...Highest afternoon/evening rain chances across the
eastern peninsula with sea breeze/boundary collisions. ISOLD-SCT
lightning storms will develop initially along the inland moving
sea breezes, with coverage and intensity (SCT-NMRS/50-70% today &
30-60% Tue) increasing late day/early evening from numerous
boundary collisions. Storm steering will be light out of the SW/W
bringing storms back to the coast, though movement will be erratic
at times surrounding strong collisions. A few storms locally
strong with primary impacts of frequent lightning strikes, gusty
winds of 40-55 mph locally, and heavy downpours leading to
minor/nuisance flooding which will be handled with Flood
Advisories as necessary. Activity will diminish thru mid-late
evening, though light debris rainfall could linger a bit. Skies
gradually thinning thru the night.

Max temps in the L-M90s each day with peak heat indices 102-107F
ahead of sea breeze/precip. Min temps consistent and in the 70s
with conditions remaining very humid.

Wed-Sun...Weak high pressure ridging continues across the central to
south/central FL peninsula into the weekend. Drier air forecast
Thu/Fri with arrival of Saharan Dust, then a potential resurgence
of moisture this weekend. ISOLD-SCT (20-50%) showers and storms
forecast on Wed, then mostly dry on Thu (5-20% - highest moisture
north of I-4), (10-40% - south) for Fri, and 20-50% for this
weekend. The main weather story for this period will likely be the
building heat across the area. Mid-level ridging across the
region will become stronger as subsidence increases and H500 temps
range between -5.5C to -7.0C. All of this will lead to a period
of above normal temperatures, especially near and north of I- 4.
For much of this period expect highs in the L-M90s near the coast
and M-U90s into the interior - highest values near/north of I-4. A
building HeatRisk is expected to affect those without adequate
cooling and hydration. Trends will be monitored for any potential
Heat Advisories as peak heat index values may near or exceed the
108F threshold across portions of the area by late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 220 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Thru Fri...Weak high pressure ridging will continue across the
central/south-central FL peninsula thru the period. This will
produce generally favorable winds/seas this week. Primary boating
concern will center around afternoon/evening lightning storms thru
mid-week that may affect the intracoastal and near shore waters.
Light SW/S flow will transition onshore each afternoon with sea
breeze formation and push inland. Highest rain chances today will
promote SCT to locally NMRS coverage, with SCT coverage near the
coast into Wed before drier air filters into the area Thu/Fri
with reduced chances. Late aftn/evening winds may increase to
14-17 kts over the open Atlc, but otherwise speeds AOB 15 kts
outside of storms. Winds/seas locally higher invof convection.
Seas 1-2 ft occasionally increase to 3 ft far offshore early this
week, and by Thursday, seas build to more widely range 2-3 ft
across the local waters (perhaps 4 ft briefly well offshore north
of Cape).

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 122 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Scattered showers and lightning storms have formed along the west
and east coast sea breeze this afternoon, with the west coast sea
breeze being more active. High coverage of showers and storms
are expected for this afternoon and evening, with the sea breeze
collision forecast near to just west of I-95 and east of Orlando
this afternoon (generally around 21-23Z). Lingering showers and
storms will be possible through 04Z in some locations. Have
maintained TEMPOs for VIS/CIG reductions beginning
over the interior after 20Z, spreading eastward over the next few
hours. Gusty winds near 45 KT will be possible in the strongest
storms. Otherwise, winds remain 10 KT or less through the period.
Dry conditions with light and variable winds overnight. VFR
conditions prevailing outside of convection through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  77  94 /  40  40  20  30
MCO  76  94  77  95 /  40  60  30  40
MLB  76  91  78  92 /  20  40  10  40
VRB  75  91  77  92 /  10  40  10  20
LEE  77  93  78  95 /  20  40  20  20
SFB  77  95  77  95 /  50  50  30  40
ORL  77  93  78  94 /  40  60  30  40
FPR  74  91  76  91 /  10  50  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

FLZ041-044-061830-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

At 200 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barberville, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Barberville, DeLeon Springs, Lake George, and Eldridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8132 2911 8127 2905 8164
      2928 8164 2930 8165 2931 8167 2932 8168
      2938 8145 2940 8143 2940 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1800Z 237DEG 11KT 2915 8152

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

FLZ053-058-254-062000-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-Inland Indian River FL-
334 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL OKEECHOBEE...WEST
CENTRAL INDIAN RIVER AND SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 400 PM
EDT...

At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Kissimmee Prairie Preserve, or 13 miles west of
Blue Cypress Lake, moving northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2752 8104 2775 8111 2781 8088 2760 8078
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 240DEG 13KT 2767 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Watson

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
429 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

FLZ045-053-062115-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
429 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND NORTH
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 429 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Buena Ventura Lakes. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Wedgefield, Azalea Park, and Buena Ventura Lakes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2827 8123 2833 8146 2858 8133 2852 8107
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 206DEG 2KT 2838 8132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
444 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

FLZ141-247-347-447-062130-
Coastal Volusia FL-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
444 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREVARD AND
SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

At 444 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Scottsmoor. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Oak Hill, Haulover Canal, Mims, and Scottsmoor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2857 8079 2859 8094 2860 8095 2861 8098
      2862 8097 2867 8097 2879 8092 2879 8090
      2882 8091 2885 8090 2885 8075 2879 8068
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 227DEG 2KT 2874 8086

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
458 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

FLZ045-053-247-347-547-647-062145-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
Inland Southern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
458 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN BREVARD...
SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE AND NORTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

At 458 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Lone Cabbage Fish Camp to
near Lake Nona. Movement was north at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Titusville, Cocoa, Wedgefield, and Avalon Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2861 8124 2861 8097 2862 8096 2862 8080
      2845 8074 2818 8083 2818 8113 2840 8134
TIME...MOT...LOC 2058Z 195DEG 8KT 2824 8095 2845 8123

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Schaper