Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Melbourne, FL

471 
WWUS52 KMLB 042131
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
531 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLC117-127-042200-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260704T2200Z/
Seminole FL-Volusia FL-
531 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN SEMINOLE AND SOUTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES...

At 530 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Geneva, moving
east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Sanford, Oviedo, Winter Springs, Geneva, and Lake Jesup.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2865 8122 2878 8126 2884 8105 2864 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 285DEG 24KT 2869 8103 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Kelly

133 
WWUS52 KMLB 042145
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
545 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLC117-127-042154-
/O.CAN.KMLB.SV.W.0070.000000T0000Z-260704T2200Z/
Seminole FL-Volusia FL-
545 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN SEMINOLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds and
heavy rain are still possible with these lightning storms.

LAT...LON 2865 8122 2878 8126 2884 8105 2864 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2142Z 254DEG 5KT 2870 8101 

$$

Kelly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
249 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- Hot and humid conditions will persist with peak heat indices
  climbing to 102-107 this holiday weekend resulting in a Moderate
  to Major HeatRisk.

- A High Risk for life threatening rip currents exists at area
  beaches from Cape Canaveral northward with a Moderate Risk
  continuing southward. Entering the surf is discouraged where
  there is a High Risk of rip currents. Otherwise, heed the
  advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs!

- Increased moisture, strong daytime heating, and boundary
  collisions will result in scattered to numerous showers and
  lightning storms each day into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Tonight(Independence Day)... Upper level ridge aloft across
Florida and the southern US will remain in place today as a weak
trough develops over the Midwest late today. At the surface, high
pressure across the western Atlantic will persist with the axis
extending over the Florida peninsula. Locally, this will result in
south to southwest winds to continue, with the east coast sea breeze
forming in the afternoon but it will not make it as far inland as it
did yesterday. The west coast sea breeze will push inland, with the
sea breeze collision forecast to occur across the eastern side of
the peninsula. Isolated to scattered showers and storms have formed
along the east coast sea breeze, mainly across the southern Treasure
coast and the Volusia coast, as well as across the west coast sea
breeze. Additional showers and storms are forecast to form along the
sea breezes, staying in the vicinity of I-95 for the east coast sea
breeze, and along the west coast sea breeze as it continues to push
inland across the state to the eastern side of the peninsula. There
is a medium and high (50-70 percent) chance of showers and storms
areawide today, mainly between 4pm-7pm, with the highest coverage
along the sea breeze collision later this afternoon/early evening.
Coverage will then gradually diminish into the evening hours. The
environment supports convection with the 15Z XMR sounding showing
plenty of instability (MUCAPE around 4300J/kg), a lifted index of -
8, and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE a little over 500 J/kg).
The main storm hazards will be frequent to excessive lightning,
gusty winds of 40-55mph, and heavy rainfall with the potential for
minor/ nuisance flooding of urban or low lying areas due to storms
moving slow or stationary. Be sure to practice lightning safety
during any outdoor holiday festivities. When thunder roars, go
indoors!

A hot and humid day for your holiday festivities. Afternoon high
temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s, with peak heat indices
between 102-107F. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk exists today with a
Major HeatRisk extending across the Orlando metro and through
portions of the I-95 corridor. A High Risk of rip currents exists at
Volusia and northern Brevard beaches, north of Cape Canaveral.
Entering the surf is strongly discouraged. A Moderate Risk continues
southward including southern Brevard and Treasure Coast beaches.
Never swim alone and always heed the advice of lifeguards, beach
patrol flags, and signs!

Sunday-Tuesday... An upper level trough across the Midwest on
Sunday will steadily move eastward towards the eastern Coast
through Tuesday, moving offshore Tuesday night into early
Wednesday morning. At the surface, a broad, weak low pressure will
develop near the base of the trough on Sunday before moving
towards the eastern US through Tuesday, with an associated weak
front sagging into the southeast US through early next week. A
surface ridge across the western Atlantic will remain in place
with the axis extending over the Florida peninsula and into the
Gulf. This will help keep the trough and surface boundary north of
the area. Locally, south to southwest winds will persist through
the period, which will keep the deep moisture in place, with
forecast soundings supporting that with PW values 2+". The deeper
moisture will allow the higher rain chances to continue each
afternoon and evening. Some storms may be strong. The environment
supports this with plenty of instability (MUCAPE 1400-2000J/kg),
and adequate downdraft potential (DCAPE 400- 700 J/kg). And
despite the relatively warmer temperatures aloft (-7 to -6C at 500
mb), occasional shortwave energy could also aid in storms
becoming stronger. Main storm hazards will be frequent to
excessive lightning, gusty winds of 40-55mph, and locally heavy
rainfall. Due to the lighter flow through the column, storms will
be slow moving or even stationary, which increases the potential
for localized flooding.

Hot and humid conditions continue through the period, with a gradual
warming trend forecast (increasing a degree or two each day).
Afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 90s each day. These
temperatures coupled with high humidity will produce peak heat
indices of 102-107F Sunday and Monday, and may be near Heat Advisory
criteria across portions of the area Tuesday. A Moderate to Major
HeatRisk will affect those without adequate cooling and hydration.

Wednesday-Friday... An upper level trough over the NE US will move
eastward and push offshore on Wednesday, with a weaker shortwave
pushing into the eastern US and then offshore by late week. At the
surface, an area of low pressure just off the NE coast will push
north and eastward on Wednesday,remaining offshore. At the same
time, a high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic will stay in
place, with the axis remaining over the Florida peninsula and
extending into the Gulf. Locally, this will result in the south to
southwest flow persisting. Scattered showers and lightning storms
are forecast each day, with models indicating a swath of drier air
infiltrating in the mid levels, which may reduce overall rain
chances mid to late week. Slightly above normal temperatures
continue, with afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s along the coast
and mid 90s across the interior.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Today-Wednesay... Generally favorable boating conditions through the
period. South to southwest flow will persist through at least early
next week, shifting onshore (east to southeast) each afternoon with
the formation of the east coast sea breeze. Wind remaining 10 KT or
less during the daytime hours before increasing to 10-15 KT each
evening and overnight. Seas mostly 1-2 ft, but occasionally build to
3ft far offshore. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are
forecast each morning with scattered to numerous offshore moving
storms forecast each afternoon and evening through at least early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR outside of convection at ECFL terminals. TS/SH beginning to
develop on the sea breezes, prompting a few early TEMPOs. Weak
offshore (WRLY) flow slowing inland progression of the east coast
sea breeze. Coverage of TS expected to increase through the rest
of the afternoon, becoming numerous after 20Z, with the highest
coverage along the sea breeze collision near to just east of
KMCO/Orlando area terminals, and west of the coastal terminals.
Overall weak offshore flow will gradually push TS activity back
towards the east coast, but individual storm motion will be slow
and erratic. Convection from the sea breeze collision could linger
through 02Z before diminishing/moving offshore. Winds at coastal
terminals are switching onshore (SE-SSE) behind the sea breeze,
while inland terminals remain offshore, increasing to around 10
kts, then winds become light/VRB again tonight. Sunday, slightly
stronger offshore flow expected to pin the east coast sea breeze
near the coast to offshore, focusing highest TS/SH chances along
the coast, but ISO-SCT TS will be possible inland as the west
coast sea breeze pushes through.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  76  92 /  20  60  30  70
MCO  77  92  76  93 /  30  60  40  70
MLB  77  90  77  91 /  30  70  30  70
VRB  75  91  76  91 /  30  70  20  70
LEE  77  92  77  93 /  30  60  20  60
SFB  77  93  77  94 /  30  70  30  70
ORL  77  92  77  93 /  30  70  30  70
FPR  75  90  75  91 /  30  70  20  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Watson
AVIATION...Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ041-044-041945-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
255 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN LAKE AND
NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 254 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Juniper Springs, moving north at 15 mph. Additional lightning storms
will develop over northeast Lake and northwest Volusia county.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Paisley, Lake George, Pittman, and Eldridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

If on or near Lake George, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2914 8143 2899 8150 2898 8166 2905 8166
      2906 8164 2928 8164 2932 8168 2938 8145
      2940 8143
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 158DEG 12KT 2917 8162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ041-141-041945-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
314 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
345 PM EDT...

At 314 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Port Orange. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Samsula-Spruce Creek, Spruce Creek,
and Allandale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2900 8113 2913 8111 2913 8098 2899 8099
TIME...MOT...LOC 1914Z 268DEG 1KT 2906 8105

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ041-042015-
Inland Volusia FL-
346 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
415 PM EDT...

At 346 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Lake Helen, moving west southwest at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Lake Ashby, and Samsula-Spruce Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2903 8106 2892 8108 2894 8122 2906 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1946Z 080DEG 7KT 2901 8111

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
355 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ041-042045-
Inland Volusia FL-
355 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
445 PM EDT...

At 354 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barberville. This thunderstorm was nearly stationary. Additional
storms are developing south toward Deland behind the sea breeze.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
DeLand, DeLeon Springs, DeLand Airport, West DeLand, and Glenwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8125 2902 8118 2896 8137
      2897 8137 2898 8135 2899 8136 2899 8137
      2901 8139 2911 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 027DEG 2KT 2918 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
401 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ044-042030-
Northern Lake County FL-
401 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT WEST CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY THROUGH
430 PM EDT...

At 400 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Fruitland Park, or near Lake Griffin, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Leesburg, Lady Lake, Lake Griffin, Lisbon, and Fruitland Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2889 8195 2895 8194 2889 8179 2881 8178
      2878 8179 2878 8187 2882 8195
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 254DEG 5KT 2886 8190

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
455 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

FLZ041-044>046-042145-
Northern Lake County FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
455 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SEMINOLE...EAST CENTRAL LAKE...
CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTH CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 545 PM
EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Casselberry, moving east at 5 mph. Additional strong lightning
storms will develop across Seminole and adjacent portions of Orange
and Volusia counties due to boundary collisions.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Deltona, Sanford, Altamonte Springs, and Oviedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2854 8137 2881 8146 2898 8137 2895 8110
      2855 8106
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 254DEG 5KT 2865 8132

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly