Severe Thunderstorm Warning 54, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

- Lower than normal rain chances this afternoon and evening, but
  storms that manage to form could produce frequent lightning
  strikes, strong to locally damaging winds, small hail, and
  torrential downpours.

- Above normal heat this afternoon with high temperatures in the
  mid to upper 90s resulting in peak afternoon heat indices
  102-107 and widespread Major HeatRisk impacts.

- Confidence in rain chances and heat impacts Wednesday and
  Thursday are lower than normal, and residents and visitors
  should monitor the forecast for changes. Regardless, heat and
  rain are expected to return into the weekend and next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Current-Tonight...Oppressive heat and humidity continue with
widespread Major HeatRisk impacts across ECFL this afternoon. Highs
generally widespread in the M-U90s with peak heat indices 102-107.
Latest sounding from KXMR rather "chilly" aloft at -8.1C. Forecasted
drier air will filter into our northern zones later today with
highest PWATs 1.75-1.95" expected from near Melbourne south. PoP
chances across the I-4 corridor near 20%, with 30-50% southward
later this afternoon/evening. SW/WSW flow 10-15 mph will keep the
ECSB from develop along the Volusia coast, with minimal development
and push inland from Brevard County southward. Still expecting a sea
breeze collision late generally south of Orlando with scattered
showers/lightning storms forecast. With drier air in place will need
to monitor for isolated strong to locally damaging wind gusts in a
few storms, as well as frequent lightning, small to coin-size hail,
and torrential downpours with localized flooding in play. Will also
monitor for this evening northward across at least northern Volusia,
as weak shortwave troughing approaches and some CAMs showing
convection pushing southward into the area with a late bump back up
in moisture here. Storm movement generally back toward the coast
with occasional erratic movement from chaotic boundary collisions.
Activity diminishes into mid-evening with thinning clouds overnight.

Overnight lows continue in the 70s with conditions humid. Fog
chances overall relatively low but will monitor for some smoke
settling across southeast Orange County from recent wildfire.

Wed-Thu...The surface ridge axis remains stymied southward with
light offshore flowing continuing, except for the afternoon/evening
where it "backs" onshore with sea breeze formation and push inland.
The mid-levels will have light northerly to variable winds with
occasional impulses traversing the area. A weak surface boundary
will slide southward toward the coverage warning area on Wed. Models
now suggest drier air will remain north of Lake/Volusia counties
with ample moisture for SCT to locally NMRS (30-60%) diurnal
convection both days. A few storms could become strong with primary
impacts of frequent lightning, gusty winds 40-55 mph locally, small
hail and torrential downpours leading to minor/nuisance flooding.
Highs still very warm L-M90s with peak heat indices 101-107,
resulting in widespread Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts.
Conditions remain muggy at night with mins in the 70s.

Fri-Mon...Weak ridging aloft drifts from the western Atlc back west
across the FL peninsula and into the northern Gulf into the weekend.
At the surface, high pressure ridging moves north into the central
peninsula early in the period, but is forced back south late in the
weekend and early next week as another weak front drops into the
Deep South. Predominant SW/S flow (albeit weak) continues into the
weekend, but "backs" onshore each afternoon with sea breeze
formation and penetration into the interior. Diurnal showers/storms,
isolated to scattered thru the period. Highest coverage over the
interior late day and early evening, with weak/erratic steering
flow. Forecasted HeatRisk continues widespread Major with pockets of
Extreme impacts on any given day as both highs/lows remain above
normal with stifling humidity. Will monitor as peak heat indices
approach Advisory criteria into the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions through the week and into the
weekend as the Atlantic high weakly extends towards Florida. A weak
front will drop near central FL keeping the surface ridge axis
suppressed over South Florida through Thu, continuing offshore (WSW-
SW) flow. The front departs and the ridge lifts north towards
central FL Fri into the weekend, shifting flow more southerly at
times but generally remaining offshore. Winds "back" onshore (SE-E)
in the afternoon into the evening as the east coast sea breeze
develops, gradually pushing farther inland each day as offshore flow
weakens. Wind speeds 5-15 kts, occasionally pushing over 15 kts
offshore in the overnights. Seas 1-3 ft. Most showers and lightning
storms expected to stay inland, but a few could move across the
intracoastal waters in the evenings, and isolated overnight
convection can't be ruled out.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 139 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

VFR conditions are expected outside of showers/storms with high
pressure (~1021mb) over the W Gulf of America. W winds at 5-10kts
are forecast to back onshore at the coastal TAFs into the PM S of
KDAB before becoming light & mostly variable overnight. VCTS is
forecast this PM at KMCO and to the ESE with PROB30 groups at KMLB
and to the S. VCTS returns to the forecast after 17Z/18Z WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  91  75  92 /  20  30  10  30
MCO  77  94  76  95 /  10  60  20  60
MLB  77  91  77  91 /  30  60  30  50
VRB  76  93  76  92 /  20  40  30  50
LEE  78  95  76  95 /  20  30  10  30
SFB  77  95  75  95 /  10  60  20  40
ORL  78  93  76  94 /  10  60  10  50
FPR  76  93  75  92 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
540 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

FLZ053-058-232230-
Okeechobee FL-Osceola FL-
540 PM EDT Tue Jun 23 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN OKEECHOBEE AND
SOUTHEASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Kissimmee Prairie Preserve, or 16 miles east of Avon
Park, moving east at 15 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lake Marian and Kissimmee Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2752 8121 2755 8121 2756 8118 2760 8114
      2764 8114 2766 8113 2768 8115 2771 8115
      2773 8117 2774 8116 2775 8118 2776 8117
      2782 8121 2784 8123 2788 8102 2751 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 267DEG 14KT 2765 8125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil