Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Melbourne, FL

615 
WWUS52 KMLB 182240
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
640 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

FLC097-182250-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-260618T2245Z/
Osceola FL-
640 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 645 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 2830 8153 2825 8133 2808 8145 2814 8145
      2814 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 196DEG 15KT 2824 8143 

$$

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Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
216 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- Very hot and humid conditions continue into the weekend and next
  week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM this evening.
  Residents and visitors should remain well-hydrated and stay cool
  in the shade or air conditioning each day.

- Rain and storm chances increase into the weekend, bringing the
  potential of a few strong to severe storms and locally heavy
  rainfall. Minor flooding is possible in urban and low-lying
  areas.

- A moderate risk for rip currents continues at area beaches.
  Remember to swim near a lifeguard and to never enter the water
  alone!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Now-Tonight...Heat index values were already climbing into the upper
90s and higher at lunchtime. We are well on the way to heat indices
peaking near 105-110 degrees this afternoon, thanks to south-
southwesterly flow and a delayed east coast sea breeze. A Heat
Advisory is in effect until 7 PM this evening, highlighting the
increased risk for heat-related illness. Stay well-hydrated and
limit time spent outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade/air
conditioning. Know the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and
heat stroke.

Higher convective temperatures and a lack of forcing early in the
afternoon will delay the onset of showers and storms until late
afternoon. CAMs vary a bit in overall convective
coverage/evolution, but there is general agreement with storms
peaking between 5-10 PM along the sea breeze collision. 12z HRRR
(and previous runs) have shown a slightly more organized east
coast breeze, pushing near/west of I-95, whereas other guidance
has suggested a more diffuse east coast breeze. Southwesterly
steering flow will tend to push any convection across the
peninsula in our direction through early-mid evening, dissipating
by midnight and pushing offshore. Steep low-level lapse rates and
plenty of DCAPE suggest that a couple storms could become strong,
capable of gusty to locally damaging winds and frequent lightning.
With sea breeze and outflow boundary collisions expected, a brief
funnel cloud or tornado cannot be ruled out. At the 130 PM
update, SPC included the Orlando metro, Daytona Beach, and coast
from Melbourne northward in a Marginal Risk for severe storms.
Torrential downpours are also likely with any storm, which may
lead to ponding of water on roads and in low-lying areas.

Friday-Saturday...The stretch of heat continues into the weekend,
even as increased afternoon storm chances try to provide some
relief. Remnants of what was Tropical Storm Arthur will push
toward the Carolina coast on Friday. Models show the associated H5
vorticity reflection extending southward into northeast Florida
Friday afternoon as a surface front briefly stalls over the
southeast U.S. Deep moisture (PW values 2.1"+) will be present,
along with slightly stronger WSW surface flow. While an east coast
sea breeze may develop, especially south of Cape Canaveral, it is
likely to remain pinned very near the coast or just offshore. As
a result, temperatures should have plenty of time to warm into the
90s by the early afternoon. Heat index values are once again
forecast to reach the 102-107F range, with a number of locations
eclipsing Heat Advisory criteria. Some question remains as to how
quickly showers and storms will develop Friday afternoon. Earlier
onset of convection could put a lid on the higher heat indices,
but confidence in this is low right now. Plan on another very hot
and humid day, staying hydrated and in air conditioning (or the
shade) as much as possible.

Developing storms Friday afternoon will be primarily supported by
the west coast sea breeze and previously mentioned (modest) upper
level support. The modeled environment suggests scattered coverage
of showers and lightning storms, capable of torrential rainfall,
frequent lightning, and strong to damaging wind gusts. As a result,
a Marginal Risk for severe storms exists from Brevard/Osceola
counties northward Friday afternoon and evening. There is also a
Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall, meaning that any one storm
could produce high rain rates and/or locally heavy rain amounts that
lead to minor flooding. Activity will largely shift offshore by
midnight, followed by mostly dry conditions into early Saturday.
Despite another hot day forecast on Saturday (heat indices 100-
107F), 12z models suggest high coverage (60-75%) of showers and
storms by the afternoon/early evening. Exact timing is uncertain,
but an earlier start to rain could bring some heat relief to
parts of the area. A couple of strong to severe storms cannot be
ruled out, but Saturday's environment looks increasingly
favorable for heavy rain/flooding potential.

Sunday-Wednesday...In the extended forecast, rain chances trend down
into next week as high pressure settles over the eastern Gulf and FL
Peninsula. Weak mid level ridging also builds overhead through
Tuesday, with greater divergence in models solutions beyond that
point. Lower rain chances mean that temperatures trend higher
again next week. Highs are forecast to reach the low/mid 90s
Monday onward, combining with PW 1.8-2.0" to push heat index
values above 102-105F. Medium confidence exists in a Major
HeatRisk developing again next week, so keep this in mind for any
plans to be outside. Practicing heat safety (adequate cooling and
hydration) will be necessary in avoiding heat-related illness,
especially as the hot days and warm nights persist.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions persist through early next
week, with the exception being increased rain and lightning storm
chances Friday-Sunday. SSW winds 10-14 kt back to the SE each
afternoon, though the sea breeze could struggle to develop this
weekend in broad westerly flow. Scattered to numerous offshore-
moving showers and storms are forecast in the late afternoon and
evening hours, some of which could be strong to severe. Seas 1-3 ft,
higher in the vicinity of storms. Weak high pressure builds back
over the waters by Monday, supporting lower rain chances and light
SW flow backing to the ESE in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Showers and storms are developing across the western portion of
the Florida peninsula, with activity gradually spreading eastward
through this afternoon. VCTS expands areawide between 18-20Z, with
TEMPOs at all interior terminals and from DAB to MLB along the
coast for VIS and CIG reductions due to TSRA as well as variable
and gusty winds. Timing of the TEMPOs range between 18-03Z, with
the latest ones focused along the coast. Activity will move
offshore late tonight, with mostly dry conditions through the
overnight hours along with light southerly winds. Winds will pick
up to around 10 knots out of the southwest after 13Z tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  77  93  77  91 /  60  30  20  80
MCO  78  95  77  93 /  60  40  20  70
MLB  80  94  78  92 /  50  50  30  80
VRB  79  95  77  93 /  30  40  40  80
LEE  79  94  78  92 /  10  20  20  50
SFB  78  95  77  93 /  60  40  20  80
ORL  79  94  78  92 /  50  40  10  70
FPR  78  94  77  92 /  20  40  40  80

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Tollefsen

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
440 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

FLZ044-144-182115-
Northern Lake County FL-Southern Lake County FL-
440 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL LAKE COUNTY THROUGH 515
PM EDT...

At 439 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Mid Florida Lakes, or over Lisbon, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Eustis, Tavares, Mount Dora, Lake Griffin, and Lisbon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2896 8185 2896 8166 2905 8166 2905 8164
      2906 8164 2893 8144 2872 8174 2884 8190
TIME...MOT...LOC 2039Z 194DEG 18KT 2886 8174

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Law

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
556 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

FLZ041-182215-
Inland Volusia FL-
556 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 615 PM EDT...

At 555 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barberville, moving northeast at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Pierson, Barberville, DeLeon Springs, and Eldridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2927 8142 2926 8142 2927 8115 2919 8110
      2904 8137 2920 8149
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 228DEG 19KT 2918 8135

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
624 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

FLZ045-053-182300-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-
624 PM EDT Thu Jun 18 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ORANGE AND
NORTHWESTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Poinciana, or near West Lake Toho, moving north at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Kissimmee, West Lake Toho, Intercession City, Buena Ventura Lakes,
and Poinciana.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2840 8151 2835 8129 2809 8143 2809 8145
      2814 8145 2814 8152 2818 8153 2820 8152
      2821 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 193DEG 22KT 2818 8145

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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