Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
727 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Summer-like sea breeze pattern, with scattered afternoon
  showers and storms, will persist into next week. Main threats
  will be lightning strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph, and locally
  heavy rainfall from slow moving storms.

- Hot and humid conditions will lead to heat indices 100-107 and a
  Moderate to Major HeatRisk. Residents and visitors should
  remain well-hydrated and seek breaks in the shade or A/C during
  the heat of the day. For more info about HeatRisk and heat
  safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

- A moderate risk of life-threatening rip currents persists at all
  Atlantic beaches of Central Florida. Always swim near a
  lifeguard!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Current-Tonight... Hot today with temperatures observed in the upper
80s and low 90s across much of east central Florida. Satellite and
radar imagery have shown the development of the east and west coast
sea breezes early this afternoon with isolated to scattered showers
and lighting storms beginning to bubble up on each side of the
state. Light southwest flow will slightly favor the west coast
breeze with a collision expected near Orlando again this afternoon
and evening. Light flow throughout the low and mid levels and deep
low level moisture will maintain a threat for localized flooding of
urban or low lying areas with slow moving storms. In addition, a few
taller storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and
localized wind gusts of 35-45 mph in downbursts. Activity should
gradually diminish after sunset with dry conditions then forecast
overnight. Mild and muggy conditions continue overnight with lows
mostly in the mid to upper 70s.

Sunday-Friday... Little change to the local weather pattern is
expected through the upcoming week as high pressure holds control at
the surface and aloft. The surface ridge axis is forecast to remain
south of the area into mid week before gradually drifting northward
Thursday into Friday. Modeled PWATs between 1.9-2.2" will range
above climatological normals through about Tuesday or Wednesday
before trends suggest slight drying toward more seasonable moisture
values (PWAT ~1.5-1.8"). Offshore flow will maintain the greatest
focus of scattered sea breeze showers and storms across the eastern
half of the peninsula, especially from Orlando eastward. A warm,
moist air column will continue to promote a heavy rainfall threat
each afternoon and evening, and localized flooding of urban or low
lying areas remains possible in slow moving or stationary storms,
particularly early in the week. A strong storm environment should be
generally limited by warm temperatures aloft and weak shear
profiles. However, surface instability and steep low level lapse
rates will still allow for quick updrafts producing tall storms.
These tall storms will be capable of frequent lightning strikes and
isolated wet downburst gusts to near 50 mph.

A period of hot and humid conditions is expected to persist into the
coming week. Highs near to above normal will range the low 90s along
the coast and low to mid 90s across the interior. Mild and muggy
conditions will persist into the evening and overnight with low
temperatures ranging the mid to upper 70s for many locations. A
Moderate HeatRisk will continue to build through the coming week,
and a Major HeatRisk from Brevard northward early this week should
expand southward through the Treasure Coast Thursday and Friday. For
more info about HeatRisk and heat safety tips, visit Heat.gov.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A surface ridge axis will remain south of the local waters through
mid next week, maintaining a period of prevailing offshore flow.
Winds shift south to southeast each afternoon as the sea breeze
develops, increasing 10-15 kts in the evenings as flow veers
offshore again. Seas of 2-3 ft will persist. Mostly dry in the
mornings and early afternoons with rounds of scattered offshore
moving lightning storms forecast late in the afternoon and
evenings.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Multiple storm boundaries about to converge INVOF KMCO, and need
to extend TEMPOs for TS impacts there and nearby terminals
through 02Z to cover collision, though recent trends suggest it
may not produce much. Might have some -SHRA linger through 04Z.
Quiet conditions tonight after TSRA/SHRA dissipate. Winds SE-SSE
5-10 kts become light/VRB late this evening. Offshore (WSW-SW)
flow 5-10 kts is expected to slow development of the east coast
sea breeze, possibly pinning it near the coast in some spots,
favoring the afternoon-evening sea breeze collision and highest
chances for TSRA closer to the coast than previous days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  92  76  92 /  30  40  40  60
MCO  77  93  76  92 /  50  50  30  50
MLB  77  91  77  93 /  20  60  50  60
VRB  75  91  75  93 /  10  60  50  70
LEE  77  93  77  92 /  30  20  10  40
SFB  77  94  77  94 /  50  50  40  60
ORL  78  93  77  92 /  50  50  30  50
FPR  75  90  75  92 /  10  60  40  70

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Law
AVIATION...Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
456 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

FLZ159-164-259-264-132115-
Coastal St. Lucie FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Martin FL-
Coastal Martin FL-
456 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL ST. LUCIE AND
NORTHEASTERN MARTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 515 PM EDT...

At 455 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Port Saint Lucie, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Saint Lucie, Stuart, Palm City, and North River Shores.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2709 8043 2722 8051 2733 8036 2715 8021
TIME...MOT...LOC 2055Z 236DEG 11KT 2719 8039

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
652 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

FLZ041-044-132315-
Northern Lake County FL-Inland Volusia FL-
652 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LAKE AND NORTHWESTERN
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM EDT...

At 652 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake George, or 8 miles southeast of Salt Springs, moving northeast
at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Lake George, Eldridge, Seville, and Bakerstown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

If on or near Lake George, get out of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8139 2922 8139 2913 8164
      2928 8164 2930 8165 2930 8166 2932 8168
      2938 8145 2940 8143 2940 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2252Z 245DEG 8KT 2928 8162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
813 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

FLZ041-046-140030-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
813 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SEMINOLE AND SOUTH
CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTIES THROUGH 830 PM EDT...

At 813 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Sanford, moving north at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Sanford, DeLand, Orange City, and Lake Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2877 8118 2879 8132 2899 8135 2893 8104
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 194DEG 6KT 2884 8125

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
827 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

FLZ041-140100-
Inland Volusia FL-
827 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
900 PM EDT...

At 827 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Deltona, moving northeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, DeLand, New Smyrna Beach, Orange City, and Lake Helen.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Excessive cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Seek safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2898 8101 2880 8119 2880 8121 2883 8123
      2884 8130 2904 8130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0027Z 202DEG 8KT 2890 8121

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
948 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

FLZ045-046-140215-
Orange FL-Seminole FL-
948 PM EDT Sat Jun 13 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SEMINOLE AND CENTRAL ORANGE
COUNTIES THROUGH 1015 PM EDT...

At 947 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Longwood, moving north at 5 to 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Sanford, Apopka, Altamonte Springs, and Oviedo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2879 8143 2879 8142 2883 8142 2886 8137
      2886 8135 2885 8136 2883 8132 2883 8123
      2881 8121 2879 8120 2880 8118 2878 8118
      2879 8114 2882 8112 2881 8109 2849 8122
      2855 8150
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 196DEG 9KT 2870 8136

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Heil