Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
300 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

- Marginal Risk with strong to severe storms are forecast late
  this afternoon and evening with the potential for damaging
  winds, frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, small hail, and a
  less than 2% tornado risk

- A High Risk of rip currents exists at all east central Florida
  beaches through Thursday; boating conditions deteriorate
  rapidly on Wednesday

- Rain chances shift south with a "cool" front from Wednesday
  onward, accompanied by drier and cooler air through Thursday,
  before another warming trend into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... KMLB radar imagery shows mostly dry
conditions over east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery
and local observations indicate scattered to broken cumulus
clouds moving east across the Florida Peninsula. Analysis charts
show a cold front over the southeastern US which extends from weak
low pressure (~1013mb) near the NC and VA coasts. Meanwhile, high
pressure (~1017mb) is situated over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Scattered to numerous showers (50-80%) and lightning storms are
forecast to develop into the late afternoon and evening hours as
the east coast sea breeze pushes inland and converges with weak
west-northwest flow. The 15Z XMR sounding shows ML CAPE at 1,500
J/kg, MUCAPE at 3,500 J/kg, PW at 1.63in, and 0-6km shear at
26kts, however low and mid level lapse rates are rather low at
5.8C/km-6.4c/km coupled with 500mb temperatures at -7.8C which
suggests that large hail is unlikely. Additionally, an MDPI value
of 1.1 is supportive of strong downdrafts.

There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms this afternoon and
evening, mainly between 3pm-10pm. The hazards of concern are
damaging wind gusts up to 60mph (5-14% chance), frequent
lightning, heavy rainfall (1-3"+ in 60 minutes), and small hail.
Additionally, there a brief tornado cannot be ruled out (less than
2% chance). The greatest potential for a tornado is over Brevard,
Indian River, and St. Lucie counties, as well as eastern Seminole
and eastern Orange counties where CAMS indicate 0-3km SRH between
200-500 m^2/s^2, as well as 3km EHI between 1-3 coupled with
MLCAPE between 1,500 J/kg-2,500 J/kg and 0-6km shear between
20-45kts. Scattered to numerous east moving showers (50-80%) and
lightning storms are forecast into this evening. West-northwest
winds at 5-10mph with gusts to 15mph are forecast to veer onshore
into the late afternoon and evening. Rain chances will persist
into the overnight before gradually diminishing into Wednesday
morning.

Scattered showers (20-50%) and lightning storms are forecast on
Wednesday as a "cool" front slowly moves south over east central
Florida. The main hazards will be wind gusts to 40-50mph, occasional
to frequent lightning, heavy rainfall, and small hail. Drier
conditions are expected into late week. Breezy east-northeast winds
at 10-15mph with gusts to 25mph are forecast. Afternoon highs in the
low to mid 80s are forecast with mostly cloudy skies. There are no
critical RH concerns.

Thursday-Monday... Drier conditions are forecast late week and
into the weekend behind the front as high pressure (1020-1026mb)
builds over the southeastern US. Isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms are forecast on Thursday (mainly over the
Treasure Coast and Okeechobee county on Thursday, much of ECFL on
Friday, and portions of east central Florida on Saturday) before
rain chances (20-40%) increase over all of east central Florida on
Sunday. Easterly winds at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph are
forecast through Friday. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s
are forecast to gradually increase into the weekend before
reaching the mid 80s to low 90s on Sunday and Monday. Lows in the
mid 60s to mid 70s are forecast.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 206 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Tonight-Wednesday... There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms
tonight over the nearshore waters. Scattered to numerous offshore
moving showers and lightning storms are forecast this evening and
into Wednesday as a "cool" front sags south over the southern
Atlantic waters into Wednesday afternoon. The main hazards are
strong wind gusts in excess of 34kts, frequent lightning, and
heavy rainfall. Winds are expected to turn onshore overnight into
Wednesday at 15-20kts with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are expected to
rapidly build Wednesday morning which is when a Small Craft
Advisory goes into effect from north to south throughout the day.
Seas to 5-7ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore and over the Gulf
Stream are expected.

Thursday-Saturday... . Drier conditions with isolated showers and
lightning storms are expected on Thursday through Saturday as
high pressure builds over the southeastern US. East-northeast
winds to 15-25kts are forecast with gusts to 25-30kts. Seas are
expected to build from north to south through the day on Wednesday
with heights to 5-8ft nearshore and 7-10ft offshore (20-60nm) and
over the Gulf Stream. Winds diminish on Thursday from the east at
10-15kts with gusts to 20kts. Seas gradually diminish to 4-6ft
nearshore and 5-7ft over the Gulf Stream on Thursday. There is a
Small Craft Advisory in effect through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Afternoon TS slow to start and haven't developed yet, so pushed
back VCTS start times. Highest coverage of TS near the coast from
KTIX-KSUA where the sea breeze will push inland and higher
moisture is available. Drier air to the north working against
TS. Enough confidence for TS impacts at inland terminals for
TEMPOs, though confidence in convection evolution is still low and
will likely need AMDs as things develop. Some +TSRA with wind
gusts to 50 kts possible. Afternoon-evening SHRA/TSRA diminish
after 00Z, but additional rounds possible through the night as a
weak front pushes south. Offshore/WRLY winds 5-10 kts shift
onshore/ERLY along the coast behind the sea breeze, then become
light/VRB overnight. MVFR CIGs could develop near the boundary,
and may need TEMPOs in later packages. SHRA clears behind the
front Wednesday morning INVOF of the northern terminals, but will
linger across the south through the day. Winds shift NE behind
the front and increase to 15-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  81  70  82 /  70  10   0   0
MCO  72  81  68  82 /  70  30   0   0
MLB  73  82  73  83 /  60  40  10  10
VRB  72  82  72  82 /  60  40  10  20
LEE  72  82  68  84 /  70  10   0   0
SFB  72  83  68  84 /  70  20   0   0
ORL  72  82  69  83 /  70  30   0   0
FPR  72  81  72  82 /  60  40  10  20

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ550.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 10 AM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ555-575.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Wednesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday
     for AMZ572.

&&

DISCUSSION...Fehling
AVIATION...Haley

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