Severe Thunderstorm Warning 24, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
226 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

- Strong to isolated severe storms will be possible this
  afternoon and evening across areas from Orlando metro and Cape
  Canaveral northward.

- Chance for showers and storms will continue each afternoon and
  evening this weekend through Monday. A few stronger storms will
  continue to be possible each day.

- Highs remain above normal through the weekend and peak heat
  indices are forecast to reach the mid 90s to around 100F
  (locally).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Current-Tonight...Only isolated pockets of low stratus early this
morning and our northern coverage warning area (CWA) remained mainly
dry as well with arrival of weak frontal boundary strewn across the
central FL peninsula. WNW/NW winds 5-10 mph will become onshore 10-
15 mph at the coast this afternoon with this trend continuing inland
with the local sea breeze regime. Colliding boundaries and a modest
increase in moisture will promote SCT (OCNLY NMRS) showers and
lightning storms this afternoon/evening mainly across our northern
CWA, with greatest coverage (30-60pct) Orlando-Titusville northward.
Steering flow is out of the WSW so activity could push back toward
the coast this evening. A few storms could be locally strong to
marginally severe with primary impacts of frequent lightning
strikes, gusty winds 40-50 mph - perhaps one or two storms to 60 mph
locally, hail to coin-size, and heavy downpours. Brief tornado
potential remains less than 2%. Greatest coverage and intensity
likely 4pm-9pm. Locally heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches may also occur
with  a few storms. Due to ongoing drought conditions there will be
the potential for fire-starts from lightning strikes, especially
away from the main precip core.

The increase in cloud-cover and precip chances will keep max temps
down slightly, but they will still be above normal, ranging from the
M-U80s at the coast and L-M90s inland. The added humidity will lead
to peak heat index values in the M-U90s, which will maintain an
elevated heat risk, especially for individuals sensitive to heat.
Warm and humid conditions will continue overnight, as temperatures
are only forecast to fall into the L-M70s.

Sat-Mon...The weak boundary begins to lift back northward this
weekend, though ample moisture remains across the area and will
promote ISOLD-SCT (20-40%) showers/storms this weekend. Greatest
coverage will focus near the coast and for areas Melbourne northward
on Sat, then a bump upward nearly areawide (30-60%) on Sun, highest
PoPs still closer towards the coast and Cape northward. Each aftn
and evening there will remain the threat for a few strong storms.

Heat impacts continue to build, as max temps reach the L-M90s and
peak heat index values continue in the U90s to around 100. Warm and
humid conditions will continue each overnight period, with lows in
the 70s providing little relief. These hot and humid conditions will
produce a Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the area this weekend.

Another weak front approaches and moves through the area Mon night.
Shower and storm chances increase ahead of this feature (30-70%),
highest coverage toward the coast with activity, again, pushing
toward the coast/offshore during the late aftn/evening. Potential
for strong to ISOLD severe storms continue. Hot and humid conditions
persist on Mon (U80s-L90s) even as cloud-cover increases.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified.

Tue-Thu...Weak front is forecast to shift south of the area, but
will stall across south Florida before lifting back north through
midweek. Behind the front, winds quickly veer onshore as high
pressure builds offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast Tue, then gradually
becoming southerly by Thu. Lingering moisture and instability north
of the front on Tue will continue a chance for showers and storms,
mainly southeast of the I-4 corridor (30-60%). There remains some
uncertainty on rain chances through midweek, as some of the
guidance still keeps lingering showers and isolated storm
potential through Wed Melbourne south, but for now forecast trends
drier through this timeframe. Temperatures return closer to
seasonal values on Tue (in the 80s) behind the front, but then
continue to rise through midweek.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Current-Tonight...A weak front across the northern waters will
remain quasi-stationary, but begin to slowly lift northward towards
daybreak Sat morning. NW winds will veer onshore this afternoon with
sea breeze development and progression inland, gradually becoming
southerly this evening and overnight at least for near the Cape
southward. Wind speeds will remain less than 15 kts, with seas 1-3
ft.

Will need to monitor for offshore-moving convection this evening,
esp near Cape northward as activity over land pushes back to the
coast. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe. Primary
storm threats include strong to locally damaging wind gusts of 35-50
kts, hail to coin-size, and frequent lightning strikes. Boaters
should keep an eye toward the west and if darkening skies threaten,
head immediately back to port.

Sat-Tue...The aforementioned front lifts back north this weekend,
with winds generally out of the S/SE 10-15 kts, but veering offshore
in the evening/overnight. Offshore winds may increase briefly late
each day/evening to 15-20 kts promoting temporary poor boating. Seas
continue 2-4 ft but may be locally higher invof ISOLD-SCT showers &
storms (aftn/eve). A few storms locally strong with primary concerns
of lightning strikes and strong gusty winds.

Another weak front approaches the area Mon and moves across the
local waters Mon night/early Tue. SW winds ahead of the boundary at
10-15 kts, become N/NW post-frontal Mon overnight/early Tue, then
shift NE/E during the day Tue increasing to 15-20 kts. Coverage of
offshore-moving showers and storms increase Mon afternoon/evening to
numerous (NMRS), and a threat for a few stronger storms will
continue. Seas build to 3-5 ft Tue, further to 6-7 ft well offshore
Tue evening/night, slowly subsiding again thru midweek. Lingering
moisture and instability behind the front may still lead to ISOLD-
SCT showers and storms into Tue.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 150 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

East coast sea breeze is pushing inland a little easier today as a
weak frontal zone settles into Volusia county INVOF KDAB. Primary
focus for TSRA will be 20Z-02Z btwn DAB-MCO-LEE as a result of
boundary collisions. Lower confidence exists in the extent of TSRA
to the south and west so maintained VC wording for LEE/TIX.
Activity gradually dissipates after 03z while moving offshore.
NBM/LAV guidances showing higher probs for MVFR CIGs at DAB
08Z-13Z so indicated a SCT015 for now. VFR elsewhere outside of
convection. Light SW wind to start Sat will turn SE at coastal
terminals MLB-SUA by 17Z-18Z behind the sea breeze.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 225 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

A weak front stalls across northern portions of east central Florida
before lifting back northward into the weekend. This boundary will
increase moisture and generate isolated to scattered showers and
lightning storms (occasionally numerous in coverage), mainly during
the afternoon and evening hours through the weekend and into early
next week. A few storms could be strong to marginally severe each
day as this activity pushes back toward the coast and offshore.
Greatest rain chances will be near to north of Orlando this
afternoon and evening (up to 40-60%) and north of Melbourne Saturday
(up to 30-40%). West-northwest winds 5-10 mph will become east-
northeast this afternoon behind the inland moving sea breeze,
increasing up to 10-15 mph. Winds then become south-southwest
Saturday around 10 mph, with the east coast sea breeze switching
winds to the southeast at the coast and increasing up to 10-15 mph.

While the increase in moisture will largely keep Min RH values above
critical values, we may see RH values drop as low as the mid 30s to
low 40s across the interior, south of Orlando this afternoon. Min RH
values range between 35-40% for much of the interior on Saturday and
40-45% on Sunday. Temperatures remain above normal for much of the
area into this weekend, with added humidity leading to peak heat
index values around 95-100 degrees each afternoon. Dispersion values
will be Fair to Generally Good this afternoon and then become Very
Good to Excellent on Saturday, returning to Generally Good for
Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  73  92  73  90 /  20  40  20  60
MCO  74  95  75  93 /  10  20  20  40
MLB  77  93  78  90 /   0  20  20  40
VRB  75  94  76  92 /   0  10  20  40
LEE  73  92  73  92 /  20  10  10  30
SFB  73  95  73  93 /  20  30  10  50
ORL  74  94  75  93 /  20  30  10  40
FPR  75  94  76  92 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
553 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

FLZ041-082230-
Inland Volusia FL-
553 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 630 PM EDT...

At 552 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake George, or 7 miles southwest of Crescent City, moving east at 15
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pierson, Barberville, Lake George, Eldridge, and Seville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2926 8139 2917 8141 2923 8158
      2926 8164 2930 8165 2930 8166 2931 8167
      2933 8167 2937 8146 2940 8143 2940 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2152Z 279DEG 12KT 2934 8157

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
624 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

FLZ141-082245-
Coastal Volusia FL-
624 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH
645 PM EDT...

At 623 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ormond-By-the-Sea, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ormond-By-the-Sea and Ormond Beach Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2929 8099 2928 8099 2929 8115
      2941 8116 2942 8114 2943 8111 2942 8111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2223Z 282DEG 19KT 2937 8108

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Ulrich

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
624 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

FLZ041-082300-
Inland Volusia FL-
624 PM EDT Fri May 8 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 700 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Barberville, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Pierson, Barberville, and Eldridge.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. On rare occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind
gusts over 50 mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and
report your sighting to the National Weather Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm. Seek
safe shelter inside a sturdy building or hard-topped vehicle.
Remember, lightning can strike beyond 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. When thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2926 8142 2927 8116 2925 8114 2908 8123
      2921 8150 2931 8142
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 297DEG 20KT 2922 8138

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Kelly