Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Melbourne, FL

918 
WWUS52 KMLB 202051
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
451 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLC009-097-202130-
/O.CON.KMLB.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260820T2130Z/
Brevard FL-Osceola FL-
451 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND EAST CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

At 451 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Kenansville,
and is nearly stationary.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Forever Florida, and Deer Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2782 8074 2791 8112 2813 8100 2806 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2051Z 019DEG 4KT 2790 8089 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Fehling

267 
WWUS52 KMLB 202129
SVSMLB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
529 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLC009-097-202139-
/O.EXP.KMLB.SV.W.0103.000000T0000Z-260820T2130Z/
Brevard FL-Osceola FL-
529 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 530 PM EDT...

The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore, the warning will
be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds are still possible with
this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 2782 8074 2791 8112 2813 8100 2806 8072
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 019DEG 4KT 2786 8090 

$$

Fehling

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
400 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in effect for all east central Florida
  counties between 10 AM and 7 PM for peak heat indices of 108F to
  112F. Practice heat safety!

- Slight relief from high heat indices this weekend, with
  increased coverage of showers and storms, but high temperatures
  persist in the lower to mid-90s.

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms will be possible each
  afternoon through early next week. Gusty winds to 50-55 mph,
  small hail, lightning strikes, and heavy downpours will be the
  main storm hazards.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 358 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Storms continue to fire up this afternoon following a warm, humid
start to the day. Some storms could have strong gusty winds,
frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Quiet conditions return
overnight. Tomorrow will have a similar setup featuring the return
of afternoon showers and storms. A heat advisory is looking less
likely for tomorrow as heat indices should remain below HA
criteria.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Today-Tonight...Little change to the overall pattern today. A
stalled boundary over the Southeast keeps the Atlantic ridge axis
southeast of the Florida peninsula at the surface. Aloft, an upper
level low lingers over the the area. Light offshore flow
continues today, initially delaying the development of the sea
breeze to around 2 PM. Winds then back southeast at the coast and
increase to around 10 mph. As the sea breeze moves inland through
the day, this will be the primary focus for afternoon convection.
Scattered to numerous showers and storms (50-60%) are forecast to
develop along the boundary, then push inland. Propagation of
storms will become increasingly erratic due to light storm
motions, with cells developing along outflow boundary collisions.
Upper level support from the low, drier air in the mid levels
(DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) due to a bit of Saharan Air Layer (SAL),
and steep low level lapse rates will lead to a few strong storms,
capable of wind gusts to 50-55 mph. A few locally higher gusts
will be possible. Other hazards include lightning strikes, locally
heavy rainfall, and small hail (500 mb temperatures near -8 C).
Convection looks to linger, mainly over the interior, through much
of the evening hours. However, expect storms to diminish by
midnight.

Hot August temperatures persist today, with highs reaching the
lower to mid-90s. Humid conditions will continue to produce max
heat indices between 108 to 112 degrees. Thus, another Heat
Advisory has been issued from 10 AM to 7 PM for all of the
forecast area, with increased precipitation and cloud cover
helping to moderate heat indices by the early evening. Overnight,
warm and muggy conditions continue, with lows in the mid to upper
70s.

Friday-Sunday...The upper level low lingers over the forecast area
Friday, before it then weakens and is picked up by an upper level
trough digging through the eastern US this weekend. At the
surface, southwesterly flow under 10 mph continues, as the
Atlantic ridge remains across South Florida. Near normal coverage
of showers and storms will persist through the weekend, with PoPs
40-60%. Strong to borderline severe wind gusts will remain a
threat from any storms, as another wave of SAL approaches the
peninsula. Steering flow increases slightly through the period
(from 5 kts to 10 kts) out of the southwest, helping to keep the
highest convection and the east coast sea breeze over the eastern
half of the state. Showers and storms will remain focused during
the afternoon hours, but will linger into the evenings before
drier conditions develop by around midnight.

While little changes with the overall pattern, drier air (PWATs
below 2") looks to advect into the area this weekend. This will
help with peak heat indices, ending the streak of advisory or near
advisory conditions. However, additional Heat Advisories will be
possible for at least portions of the area once again Friday.
Highs remain in the lower to mid-90s, despite the somewhat lower
humidity and apparent temperatures will linger at 100-106 degrees.

Monday-Thursday...The stalled boundary lifts northward next week,
allowing the Atlantic ridge axis to also move northward across the
area. Meanwhile, a strong upper level ridge over the southern
plains looks to shunt an upper level trough across the Florida
peninsula. Locally, the most appreciable change will be for
southerly flow to prevail, aiding the east coast sea breeze inland
each afternoon. While the highest coverage of showers and storms
will move inland, in turn, widespread scattered to numerous
coverage remains forecast, with upper level support from the
trough. High temperatures moderate into the lower 90s, but high
humidity will maintain peak heat indices 100-107. Fortunately,
heat indices are forecast to remain below Heat Advisory criteria.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Generally favorable boating conditions prevail. The Atlantic ridge
axis remains south of the local waters through the weekend,
maintaining overall light offshore flow. Will see the ridge shift
northward next week, backing winds southerly. Regardless, daily
sea breezes at the coast will produce south to southeasterly
winds, with flow overall around 10 kts or less. Seas 1-3 ft.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast each
afternoon. Chances for offshore-moving convection increases into
the weekend, especially during the evenings. Storms will be
capable of wind gusts in excess of 35 kts and the strongest could
produce gusts to near 50 kts, in addition to lightning strikes and
small hail.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 358 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail at most of the terminals currently. Radar
imagery and visible satellite indicate that convection is
currently ongoing and developing across the Florida Peninsula.
This activity should continue to increase in coverage with VCTS at
all terminals with TEMPO TSRA at numerous terminals through 00z.
Convection should diminish in coverage and intensity around 00z
with VFR conditions overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  93  76  92 /  10  60  10  50
MCO  76  95  76  94 /  30  60  20  30
MLB  77  93  77  93 /  10  50  30  50
VRB  76  93  75  93 /  10  40  30  60
LEE  76  93  76  91 /  20  50  10  30
SFB  77  94  77  93 /  20  60  20  40
ORL  77  94  77  93 /  30  60  20  30
FPR  76  92  75  92 /  10  50  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-
     058-141-144-154-159-164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747.

AM...None.
&&

UPDATE...Pearce
AVIATION...99

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
322 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0315 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 NNW Cocoa             28.41N 80.76W
08/20/2026  M44 MPH          Brevard            FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 1000 measured a
            peak wind gust of 44MPH/38KT from the west
            at 3:15 PM. Sensor elevation is 54 feet.

&&

MW

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0255 PM     Marine Tstm Wind 2 WSW Port Canaveral    28.40N 80.65W
08/20/2026  M40 MPH          AMZ552             FL   Other Federal

            USSF wind sensor on tower 300 measured a
            peak wind gust of 40MPH/35KT from the
            northwest at 2:55 PM. Sensor elevation is 54
            feet.

&&

MW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLZ041-045-046-141-247-347-202015-
Coastal Volusia FL-Orange FL-Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
Mainland Northern Brevard FL-Inland Northern Brevard FL-
342 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EASTERN SEMINOLE...NORTHWESTERN
BREVARD...EAST CENTRAL ORANGE AND SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTIES
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 342 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Maytown, or 7 miles southwest of Edgewater, moving north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Deltona, Port Orange, Sanford, Oviedo, and Winter Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2906 8087 2894 8079 2879 8083 2879 8084
      2878 8083 2853 8091 2854 8125 2908 8127
TIME...MOT...LOC 1942Z 175DEG 20KT 2888 8097

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
349 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLZ041-141-202015-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
349 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 415 PM EDT...

At 349 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Daytona Beach Airport, or over South Daytona, moving southeast at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, Ormond Beach, New Smyrna Beach, and South
Daytona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2943 8107 2909 8090 2903 8085 2897 8086
      2912 8115 2942 8115 2943 8110
TIME...MOT...LOC 1949Z 292DEG 16KT 2918 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLZ053-547-647-202045-
Osceola FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-Mainland Southern Brevard FL-
412 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN BREVARD AND EAST
CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTIES THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 412 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Camp Holly Fish Camp, moving southeast at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Palm Bay, Melbourne, Camp Holly Fish Camp, West Melbourne, and
Melbourne Village.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2802 8100 2829 8084 2814 8062 2786 8084
TIME...MOT...LOC 2012Z 308DEG 6KT 2807 8083

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

FLZ041-141-202045-
Coastal Volusia FL-Inland Volusia FL-
417 PM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT EAST CENTRAL VOLUSIA COUNTY
THROUGH 445 PM EDT...

At 417 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edgewater, moving east at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Daytona Beach, Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Edgewater, and South
Daytona.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 8090 2885 8072 2880 8072 2882 8101
      2923 8105 2924 8097
TIME...MOT...LOC 2017Z 286DEG 6KT 2899 8090

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Fehling