Red Flag Warning 7, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
738 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

- Hot and dry conditions through Thursday, with highs in the low to
  mid 90s nearing daily records.

- Rain chances begin to rise Friday into the weekend as a front
  nears and stalls just north of the area, with highs remaining
  above normal in the low to mid 90s for much of the area, as well
  as peak heat indices approaching the mid to upper 90s.

- Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior
  this afternoon, then an increasing fire danger is forecast into
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Current-Thursday...The primary weather concern in the short term
continues to be the warmer than normal (hot) afternoon temperatures
(near record warmth) this period, as well as mainly dry conditions.
Please see Climate section below. Thu will be the hottest with
widespread M90s for max values and potentially a few U90s. The ECSB
will provide some relief this afternoon as it marches inland, but on
Thu a developing, stronger, offshore flow, as the ridge axis slides
south, will limit this feature to the immediate Treasure Coast and
it will likely be delayed, thus allowing many coastal locations to
soar into at least the L90s.

Residents and visitors sensitive to heat should take precautions for
these well above normal temperatures. Remember, NEVER leave children
or pets in cars for any period of time. The increasing heat, as well
as dry and breezy conditions Thursday will also lead to an increased
fire weather danger tomorrow.

Fri-Sun...Previous Modified Discussion...A weak cold front slides
southward into north Florida and stalls Fri morning. This boundary
will linger just north of the area through at least early Sat before
it begins to lift back northward into Sun. This front will lead to
an increase in moisture that will bring a return of isolated to
scattered showers and lightning storms, mainly during the afternoon
and evening hours as sea breeze boundaries push inland and collide.
PoPs 20-40% are limited to areas Okeechobee northward on Fri keeping
much of the Treasure Coast dry, then expands across the entire
region by Sun. Lingering drier air aloft will lead to the potential
for isolated strong storms each day, with primary threats of
frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds up to 40-45 mph and locally
heavy rainfall.

With the front remaining to the north and mid-level ridge center
moving slowly eastward across the Caribbean, temperatures will
remain hotter than normal. Highs will still reach the L90s for much
of the area, with a few M90s possible across the southern interior.
Increasing humidity will lead to peak heat index values in the M-
U90s both Fri/Sat and may increase to the U90s to around 100 degrees
on Sun. Potential heat impacts, particularly for heat-sensitive
individuals, will therefore persist through the weekend.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion.

Mon-Tue...Large scale trough aloft will push through the eastern
U.S. into early next week, which will shift a weak cold front
through the area into early next week. This will increase shower and
storm chances into Monday (up to 40-50%), with rain chances then
decreasing into Tuesday (20-40%). Highs are forecast to remain above
normal, in the low 90s on Monday, but the frontal passage is
currently forecast to drop temperatures to more normal values
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Thru Tonight...Continued favorable boating conditions. The high
pressure ridge axis shifts across the local waters this afternoon,
then southward overnight. Onshore winds shift S/SSW tonight with
speeds AOB 15 kts. Seas generally 2-3 ft.

Thu-Sun...Boating conditions to remain generally favorable into the
weekend, though as the ridge axis shifts southward expect an
increase in moisture as a weak cold front settles into north-central
FL lingering mostly north of the area into early weekend before
eventually lifting back north. Southerly winds 10-15 kts on Thu
become offshore Thu night/early Fri, then back to onshore again Fri
aftn with sea breeze development and progression inland. Winds
continue generally S/SE thru the weekend with speeds 10-15 kts,
perhaps a little stronger Sun aftn. Seas typically continue 2-3 ft
and perhaps 4 ft well offshore late Sun as winds slightly increase.
Seas also higher invof ISOLD-SCT showers/lightning storms late Fri
into the weekend

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 738 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

VFR through the TAF period. Easterly winds around 9-12 kts early
this evening become light and variable into tonight. Southwest
flow develops into Thursday morning, increasing to around 12 kts
in the afternoon. Tomorrow's east coast sea breeze will remain
pinned to the coast and struggle to move inland beyond the Brevard
and Treasure coast terminals.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Increasingly hot and dry conditions forecast through Thursday, with
fire danger increasing, as highs reach into the low to mid 90s.
Sensitive fire weather conditions will exist across the interior
this afternoon, as Min RH values fall into the low to mid 30s.
Sustained wind speeds are generally forecast to remain below 15 mph
this afternoon; initially out of the south-southeast becoming east-
southeast behind the inland moving east coast sea breeze.

Potentially dangerous fire weather conditions are forecast into
Thursday afternoon, as winds increase out of the southwest and Min
RH values fall to the upper 20s to mid 30s for much of the area. A
Fire Weather Watch remains in place for Osceola and Brevard counties
northward through Lake and Volusia counties Thursday where
critically low RH and wind speeds around 15 mph are most likely to
coincide. The east coast sea breeze will likely form south of the
Cape, but will be delayed, switching winds to the southeast Thursday
afternoon. This may keep Min RH values above critical values along
the immediate coast where the sea breeze is able to form. Generally
Good dispersion this afternoon becomes Very Good to Excellent
Thursday, which may lead to control issues. Back to Fair to
Generally Good dispersion on Friday.

Isolated to scattered lightning storm chances begin to enter the
forecast for portions of east central Florida Friday afternoon into
the weekend as moisture slowly increases and sea breeze boundaries
collide.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 202 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites for today, May
6th and Thursday, May 7th:

Site           May 6        May 7
Daytona      95 (1955)    93 (1952)
Leesburg     93 (2007)    94 (1984)
Sanford      95 (1952)    94 (2009)
Orlando      98 (1922)    98 (1915)
Melbourne    94 (2022)    91 (1980)
Vero Beach   95 (2022)    93 (1947)
Fort Pierce  95 (2022)    95 (1906)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  70  96  73  86 /   0   0   0  20
MCO  70  95  73  92 /   0   0   0  40
MLB  72  93  74  87 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  70  93  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  70  94  73  91 /   0   0   0  30
SFB  70  97  73  91 /   0   0   0  40
ORL  71  96  73  91 /   0   0   0  40
FPR  69  93  70  89 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for FLZ041-044>046-053-141-144-247-347-447-547-647-
     747.

AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Law