Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Melbourne, FL

546 
WWUS82 KMLB 022158
RFWMLB

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
558 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

FLZ053-058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647-747-022300-
/O.CAN.KMLB.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-260502T2300Z/
Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Indian River-Inland Saint Lucie-
Inland Martin-Inland Southern Brevard-Mainland Southern Brevard-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
558 PM EDT Sat May 2 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The National Weather Service in Melbourne has cancelled the Red
Flag Warning. 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

- There is a Marginal to Slight Risk for severe storms between
  roughly 3-11 PM Saturday, especially near and north of I-4. The
  primary hazard is a 5-15% chance for damaging wind gusts. There
  is also a small chance for large hail and a tornado.

- Hot ahead of the storms on Saturday, with widespread low/mid 90s
  in the afternoon. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is forecast,
  which affects those sensitive to heat and/or without access to
  adequate hydration or cooling. Temps turn cooler on Sunday.

- Peak wind gusts from 30 to 35 mph expected ahead of any storms
  on Saturday afternoon. Combined with low relative humidity and
  drought conditions, sensitive to critical fire weather
  conditions are forecast. A Fire Weather WATCH is in effect on
  Saturday afternoon from Osceola and S Brevard Co's. and points
  southward. Outdoor burning is discouraged on Saturday!

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Ridging aloft will stay in place today, with zonal
flow in the upper levels prevailing. At the surface, a stationary
boundary will remain to our north with high pressure axis to our
south. Locally, this will produce an offshore (W/SW) flow around 10
mph today. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form this
afternoon and is expected to push farther inland than yesterday, due
to the pressure gradient not being as tight. Most areas will remain
dry today, with only isolated showers possible as the sea breeze
pushes inland across the north. Temperatures remain unseasonably
warm today, with afternoon highs in the lower 90s across the
interior, and upper 80s along the coast. There is a Minor to
Moderate HeatRisk today, affecting those who are sensitive to heat
and without adequate cooling and hydration.

There is a High risk of rip currents at all area beaches once again
today. Heed the advice of lifeguards, beach patrol flags, and signs.

Saturday... Upper level low pressure across Ontario with axis
extending across the Midwest and into TX will steadily shift
eastward, deepening as it shifts towards the eastern seaboard. At
the surface, a cold front draped across the Deep South and the
Florida panhandle will slowly drop southward across central Florida
through the day and overnight hours. There remains some uncertainty
on how quickly the front will push through, with the GFS being
slightly faster compared to the ECMWF as it shows the front clearing
ECFL and pushing into South Florida before daybreak on Sunday.
Locally, the pressure gradient will tighten as the Florida peninsula
is situated between the approaching cold front to the north and the
high pressure across the western Atlantic to the south. Strong and
gusty WSW winds of 15-20 mph with frequent gusts of 30-35 mph will
develop by late morning and continue into the afternoon. A Wind
Advisory will most likely be needed. Temperatures will be well above
normal and near record highs on Saturday before the front moves
through. Afternoon highs will reach the low 90s across Lake/Volusia
counties (due to the increase in cloud cover and rain chances), and
mid 90s everywhere else, especially across the Space and Treasure
Coasts. A Moderate HeatRisk is forecast across all of east central
Florida, with a chance for a Major HeatRisk for the Space and
Treasure coasts.

Rain and storm chances return on Saturday along and ahead of the
front. While CAM guidance is in agreement with a faster convective
evolution, there remains some disagreement with exact timing of the
convection. However, current guidance shows the convective band
reaching the northern counties of the CWA by early to mid-afternoon.
Convection is forecast to weaken after sunset as it pushes southward
into Okeechobee/Treasure coast. There is a medium to high (40-70
percent) chance of showers and storms from Orlando metro area
northward, and a low to medium (20-40 percent) chance of showers and
storms southward towards northern Indian River/Okeechobee counties
in the afternoon and evening. Rain chances then increase to 50-70
percent area wide in the evening and overnight hours as the front
continues to push southward across the local area. The storm
environment will be favorable for strong to severe storms Saturday
afternoon and evening, mainly across Brevard/Osceola counties
northward, with forecast soundings showing an increase in moisture
(PW values of 1.5-1.8"), cooler temperatures aloft (-10 to -11C at
500mb), sufficient instability (MUCAPE 900-1300 J/kg), ample upper
level shear (50-70 knots), as well as an adequate downdraft
potential (DCAPE around 500-800 J/kg). Stronger storms will be
capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds of 40-60 mph,
hail and even a tornado or two can not be ruled out. The best chance
for damaging winds and large hail (5-14%) will be across northern
Lake/Volusia counties where SPC has a Slight risk (level 2/5), with
a Marginal risk (level 1/5) to the south. Areas from Osceola/Brevard
counties northward will have a 2-4% chance for a tornado.

Fire weather conditions will be very sensitive on Saturday prior to
any rain and storms due hot temperatures, low min RH values (around
35-45 percent), strong/gusty winds, as well as already dry
conditions across ECFL. Lightning strikes may spark brush fires that
smolder for a day or two before flaring up.

Sunday... The aforementioned upper level trough across the eastern
US will continue to push eastward and offshore into the Atlantic
through the day, eventually forming a closed low near Maine/New
Brunswick/Nova Scotia. The cold front located near the southern
Treasure Coast/Southern Florida line near day break will continue to
shift southward through the day. Locally, the pressure gradient will
slacken slightly, causing the NE winds to settle to 10-15 mph with
gusts 20-25 mph possible at times. Scattered to numerous showers and
storms ongoing from Saturday night will continue, shifting southward
through the day. Considerable clouds and cooler temps will limit the
threat for strong/severe storms. Because of this, the main storm
threats will be heavy rainfall, frequent lightning strikes, and
gusty winds of 40-50 mph. The greatest potential for a heavy rain
threat to evolve will be across southern sections (Okeechobee/
Treasure coast) where the Weather Prediction Center has out outlined
in a Marginal Excessive Rainfall Outlook. This is supported by the
GFS forecast PW values being around 2.0" across the southern CWA
with drier air forecast to filter in across the north behind the
front (PW values 1.2-1.5"). Temperatures will be below normal with
highs in the mid to upper 70s, and may reach low 80s across the
northern far interior. Overnight lows will be near to slightly below
normal, with lows in the mid 50s to low 60s across the north, and
low to mid 60s across the south.

Monday-Friday... Ridging aloft will stay in place through the
period, sliding southward into late week as an upper level low
across the Midwest swings into the NE by Friday. At the surface,
high pressure extending from the Gulf Coast States across the
Southeast U.S will weaken into mid-week, shifting seaward into the
western Atlantic. The next frontal boundary will then drop southward
into the Deep South by mid/late week, pushing southward across the
Florida peninsula on Friday. Locally, onshore flow (E/SE) will
prevail through Wednesday, becoming gusty each afternoon behind the
east coast sea breeze. Winds will then turn westerly on Thursday
ahead of the front, and north/northeast on Friday behind the front.

Lingering moisture from the stalled front over South Florida/
Straits of Florida will keep a low (20 percent) chance of showers
across Martin and St. Lucie Counties on Monday. Otherwise, mostly
dry conditions forecast through mid week. Rain and storm chances
return Thursday as the next frontal boundary approaches the local
area. There is a low to medium (20-30 percent) chance of rain and
storms Thursday and Friday as the front moves southward across the
area. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the period,
with afternoon highs soaring into the low to mid 90s by mid week.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Today-Tonight... Favorable boating conditions this afternoon before
conditions become poor overnight, mainly from Cape Canaveral
southward. South to southwest winds 5-10 KT will veer onshore this
afternoon with the east coast sea breeze. Winds then shift south to
southwest once again overnight and increase to 15-20 KT from Cape
Canaveral southward (winds 10-15 KT northward). Small craft should
exercise caution from Cape Canaveral southward overnight. Seas 2-3
ft in the near shore waters, and 3-4ft in the offshore waters this
afternoon before building to 3-5ft overnight.

Saturday-Tuesday... Deteriorating boating conditions on Saturday as
a cold front approaches and pushes southward across the area on
Saturday into Sunday. Southwest winds will generally be at 15-20 KT
Saturday, with a period of near 20 KT offshore in the afternoon
ahead of the front. Wind then shift out of the north Saturday night
into Sunday behind the front, then out of the northeast Sunday
night/Monday as an elongated high pressure to the north builds over
the area. Wind speeds 15-20 KT behind the front decreasing 10-15 KT
Monday. Winds veer east on Tue around 10 KT as the ridge axis
approaches the area. Seas build 3-5 ft Saturday before building to 4-
5 ft Sunday with up to 6 ft in the offshore waters. Seas begin to
subside slightly on Monday, with seas 3-4 ft in the nearshore and up
to 5-6 ft in the offshore waters. Seas the decrease to 3-4 ft area
wide Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms
(chances up to 70 percent) will accompany the frontal passage
Saturday afternoon into Sunday, decreasing Sunday night, with
isolated to scattered showers and storms (chances 20-30 percent)
remaining possible south of Ft Pierce Inlet Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

MCO IMPACTS:
- Gusty southwest winds on Saturday from late morning through the
  afternoon. Peak gusts up to 30 KT.
- Scattered TS with a low (10-20%) chance for wind gusts
  exceeding 35 KT between 02/21Z - 03/01Z.
- Wind shift to NW on Saturday evening, followed by a period of
  MVFR CIGs Saturday night.

First off, expect favorable TAF conds tonight through early
Saturday. Then, as a cold front approaches, gusty southwest winds
are forecast from late morning Saturday through the afternoon.
Peak gusts to around 30 KT ahead of any convection. Guidance
suggests moderate confidence in a broken line of showers and
storms approaching Greater Orlando terminals after 20Z. This
activity should be nearing TIX by 03/00Z. A few storms may turn
strong and gusty, with peak gusts exceeding 35 KT. The front
continues to settle southward on Saturday night, arriving at the
Treasure Coast terminals just beyond this TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Sensitive to critical fire weather conditions are likely on
Saturday ahead of a cold front. Much-above-normal temperatures
in the 90s are expected within a well-mixed boundary layer, which
will allow gusty winds to reach the surface. Sustained southwest
winds of 15-20 mph are forecast, and peak gusts from 25-35 mph
should occur during the afternoon. A sea breeze is not expected.
Greater sunshine over the Space and Treasure Coasts should allow
RH values to sink into the 30-35% range. For this reason, we have
highlighted Osceola - S Brevard and points southward in a Fire
Weather WATCH. Farther north over Greater Orlando, similar wind
speeds/gusts are likely but mixing may be limited just enough by
cloudiness to keep RH readings just above our Red Flag criteria, in the
36-45% range. Coincident with the ongoing drought and quickly-
drying fuels, outdoor burning is highly discouraged on Saturday.

By Sunday, winds turn northeasterly and decrease to 10-15 mph. RH
values may briefly dip into the upper 30s-mid 40s in the afternoon
north of I-4.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 739 PM EDT Fri May 1 2026

Record high temperatures at local climate sites Saturday:

Site     May 2
DAB    95 (1953)
LEE    95 (1990)
SFB    94 (2010)
MCO    97 (1906)
MLB    95 (2002)
VRB    94 (2002)
FPR    95 (2002)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  68  91  61  76 /   0  60  60  10
MCO  69  94  64  78 /   0  40  70  20
MLB  69  93  67  78 /   0  20  70  40
VRB  68  94  68  78 /   0  10  70  60
LEE  68  90  61  79 /   0  60  60  10
SFB  69  93  63  79 /   0  40  70  10
ORL  70  92  64  79 /   0  40  70  20
FPR  67  94  67  78 /   0  10  70  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for FLZ053-058-154-159-164-254-259-264-547-647.

AM...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...Watson
KEY MESSAGES/AVIATION/FIRE...Heil