Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Milwaukee, WI

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered severe storms are possible this evening mainly north
  of a Mineral Point, to Madison, to Sheboygan line. Damaging
  winds and large hail are the main hazards. Locally heavy
  rainfall and localized flooding may occur in the same areas.

- Scattered thunderstorms are expected once again Thursday
  afternoon and early evening. Gusty winds and small hail may
  occur.

- Hot and muggy conditions return early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largely
along and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear
will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through
late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with
locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms
will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a
shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have
generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after
midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the
second half of the night if radar trends match what models are
showing.

DDV

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Tonight and Thursday:

An outflow boundary continues to trigger showers over Racine
County early this afternoon with likely some development for
Kenosha County soon. Otherwise a cluster of storms is moving ewd
across far nrn IA and adjacent MN. This area of storms has
developed in a region of weak warm, moist advection and on the
srn periphery of a vorticity maximum that stretches from central
WI into se MN. Additional showers and storms are currently
developing over central WI as well. Expect convection to grow in
coverage and intensity the remainder of the afternoon over the
aforementioned areas as MLCAPE builds to 1500-2000 J/KG.
Effective shear will range from 30-40 kts over central WI but
decreasing to 20 kts over srn WI with a lessening of overall
shear toward the early evening. Nevertheless, enough CAPE and
storm organization will support a decent potential for severe
thunderstorms for a time toward central WI.

For later in the evening and overnight, more of a locally
heavy rain and urban and small stream flood potential will
exist. This is supported by a wly 25 kt low level jet and
associated thetae advection within the thermal ridge and the
approaching weak shortwave trough from the nw. This is in
conjunction with PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches and weak corfidi
vectors. The CAMs and model QPF suggest the flood threat should
remain isolated. Ongoing scattered storms and additional storms
are then expected on Thu with the passage of the cold front and
shortwave trough. Only marginal CAPE is expected with rather
weak effective shear continuing. Thus the severe threat will be
very low as well as an isolated heavy rain threat.

Nely winds will bring a slightly cooler and drier airmass for
Friday as high pressure builds from the nrn Great Lakes into WI.
Seasonal temps and humidity is forecast.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Saturday through Wednesday:

Primarily dry weather is predicted this weekend through the
middle of next week. An upper-level ridge building over the
Plains and moving toward the Great Lakes region this weekend
with high geopotential height values alongside a surface high
pressure system are likely to persist during this period.
Temperatures are expected to be in the mid to high 80s range,
increasing into the low 90s next week.

Zawlocki/Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 715 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Shower/storm chances will persist into this evening, largely
along and north of I-94. Decent instability and marginal shear
will keep the chance going for a severe storm or two through
late evening, with strong winds the main concern along with
locally heavy rainfall. A chance for showers and a few storms
will continue into tonight as deep moisture lingers and a
shortwave slowly moves through. Latest short term models have
generally backed off on coverage of showers/storms after
midnight, though. May need to trend precip chances downward the
second half of the night if radar trends match what models are
showing.

An additional round of showers and storms will be possible
tomorrow, particulary during the afternoon hours as the surface
trough drops through southern Wisconsin. Gusty winds and small
hail will be possible with any stronger storms.

A round of MVFR ceilings will be possible late tonight into
Thursday morning, particularly northwest of a line from Monroe
to Port Washington, with mainly VFR conditions returning for the
afternoon hours. Winds will largely be light and variable
tonight, becoming westerly Thursday morning and shifting to the
north from north to south during the afternoon as the surface
trough drops southward.

DDV

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 156 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

High pressure around 30.1 inches will remain over the Ohio Valley
today and tonight. Modest south winds will continue today, as
weak low pressure around 29.8 inches and an accompanying cold
front approaches from Upper Michigan and northwest Wisconsin.
Light to modest southerly winds tonight will become north behind
the frontal passage Thursday into Thursday night. Winds will
become north to northeast on Friday, as high pressure around 30.1
inches builds into the the region. The high should continue to
bring light to modest winds for the weekend.

Gehring

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...None.
&&

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-091915-
Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge-
Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-
Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha-
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms, some severe this evening with damaging
winds and large hail. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible as
well.

An Air Quality Advisory is in effect for Sheboygan, Ozaukee,
Milwaukee, Racine and Kenosha Counties until 11 PM CDT. Ozone
concentrations are forecast to range from unhealthy for sensitive
groups to unhealthy for all within the lake breeze today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday into early
Thursday evening.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are activated this afternoon and evening.

LMZ643>646-091915-
Sheboygan to Port Washington WI-
Port Washington to North Point Light WI-
North Point Light to Wind Point WI-
Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL-
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from
Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms mainly north of North Point Lighthouse,
with chances lingering later tonight and spreading southward. A
few strong to severe storms are possible, with damaging winds and
large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday into early
Thursday evening.

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-091915-
Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to
mid-line of lake.-
Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the
Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South
Fox Island 5NM offshore-
Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to
mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM
offshore to mid lake-
Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore
to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM
offshore to Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid
Lake-
Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid
lake-
Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to
Mid Lake-
213 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms mainly over northern and central portions
of the lake. A few strong to severe storms are possible, with
damaging winds and large hail.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Wednesday

There are chances for thunderstorms at times Thursday into early
Thursday evening, mainly over southern portions of the lake.

www.weather.gov/mkx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
827 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

WIZ056-057-090200-
Columbia WI-Sauk WI-
827 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL COLUMBIA AND EAST CENTRAL
SAUK COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM CDT...

At 827 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Portage to near Baraboo to 7 miles
southwest of West Baraboo to 7 miles north of Spring Green. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Baraboo, Portage, Prairie Du Sac, Lake Wisconsin, Lodi, Poynette,
Pardeeville, West Baraboo, Wyocena, Bluffview, Merrimac, Harmony
Grove, Interstate 90/94 Interchange, Okee, and Devils Lake St Park.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90/94 between mile markers 96 and 108.
 Interstate 39 between mile markers 85 and 92.
 Interstate 39/90/94 between mile markers 109 and 110, and between
mile markers 112 and 118.
 U.S. Highway 12 between mile markers 219 and 223.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4339 8995 4346 8979 4359 8968 4360 8913
      4346 8930 4337 8935 4329 8964 4331 9007
TIME...MOT...LOC 0127Z 271DEG 17KT 4359 8946 4345 8969 4339 8983 4327
9003

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

QUIGLEY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
833 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     5 SW Kingston           43.66N 89.21W
07/08/2026  E50 MPH          Green Lake         WI   911 Call Center

            Estimated 50 mph wind gust reported in
            Dalton, WI.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
839 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0830 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     4 S Portage             43.50N 89.48W
07/08/2026  M59 MPH          Columbia           WI   Public

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
914 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

WIZ057>059-063-090300-
Dodge WI-Columbia WI-Washington WI-Dane WI-
914 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN COLUMBIA...
NORTHEASTERN DANE...NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND DODGE COUNTIES
THROUGH 1000 PM CDT...

At 914 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles northwest of Mayville to near Beaver
Dam to near Fall River to Poynette to near Lodi. Movement was east at
35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Eastern Madison, West Bend, Sun Prairie, Beaver Dam, Hartford,
Waunakee, Windsor, Mayville, Columbus, Kewaskum, Prairie Du Sac,
Marshall, Horicon, Sauk City, Juneau, Lake Wisconsin, Deforest, Lodi,
Poynette, and Fall River.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 39/90/94 between mile markers 114 and 136.
 U.S. Highway 151 between mile markers 98 and 139.
 Interstate 94 between mile markers 243 and 245.
 Wisconsin Highway 26 between mile markers 47 and 53.
 Interstate 41 between mile markers 69 and 82.
 U.S. Highway 45 near mile marker 73.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central, southeastern and east central Wisconsin.

&&

LAT...LON 4332 8837 4320 8893 4320 8901 4317 8901
      4310 8922 4326 8973 4330 8972 4352 8926
      4355 8878 4354 8809
TIME...MOT...LOC 0214Z 292DEG 30KT 4354 8865 4348 8887 4346 8909 4337
8940 4328 8960

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

QUIGLEY

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
916 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0904 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     3 E Lake Wisconsin      43.38N 89.52W
07/08/2026  M56 MPH          Columbia           WI   Public

            Measured on personal weather station.

&&